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$RGR

Weak Day For Me

BAS has imploded 15% in a week. I always pare back that position opportunistically when I can, precisely because I cannot trust it. Sadly, I added on to quick, down 10%, and now have some losses to show for it. The stock is owned by cowards of the lowest caliber.

HCLP is also disappointing me, down off a resurgence from the backs of the frack sand article that made rounds last week.

I was getting excited about TSLA’s selloff, but that has shored up, and is pushing higher. My expectation is the first round of put options expire worthless. I have high hopes for the longer expiration dates.

CCJ though is looking promising. Silver is also pressing higher – I would love a precious metals price recovery for Christmas.

My portfolio is flat on the day. December is young, but time is short, and it appears that I will merely perform with the market this year. A grand opportunity to broadly defeat the indices, rallied from my huge RGR trade in the beginning of the year, was wasted, sadly.

But, maybe Santa Clause will deliver a holiday special for Cain. He has plenty of times before.

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Now I Feel Stupid About RGR

There’s only so much upside in a company you can let slip away before you start feeling a little dumb. RGR has now pushed past that point.

I made the call last year that RGR would run straight back to $60. Well $60 is about here, and once again I find myself having duck and run, shunning such a quant idea as “windfall profits”.

It’s not like I was impoverished trading RGR. I made 40% inside of 8 months. But I lost out on an extra 20%, just sitting there on the table.

My reasons for running were good enough. Even though RGR is just blowing away estimates, gun background checks are really falling quite fast. The on the ground information was and is pointing to the gun consumer tiring out – much faster than I originally expected back in December. Maybe it’s not setting up for a decade lull like some are anticipating; but it’s definitely going to hit a dry patch.

RGR shares are pretty steep in price. The company is solid and maybe they have enough in back orders to just ride it out. But I’m inclined to think a slowdown in gun demand will give them a hard time, as far as market pricing is concerned.

Still, I also should have guessed that the average investor-monkey wouldn’t bother looking at gun checks this far out, as they have only short term memory, fueled by pure greed.

For the moment then, yes I am pouting.

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Added To CCJ and CLP

I bought more CCJ for $20.04

I bought more CLP for $23.72

Current cash stands around 40%. Yesterday’s proceeds from RGR were rolled into these two positions.

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RGR Goes Blastoff!

Well it would seem I was off by selling RGR this week. Ah well, no regrets on my part. I had feared a sell the news type reaction, so I took my 40% and ran.

I’m surprised the stock is up by this much, given how far down background checks are.

What a marvelous company.

At any rate, I won’t be chasing it here. I’ve had my fun and intend to let the good people of Ruger manage it alone.

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The Final RGR Numbers Are In

I was curious what the actual gains from RGR were; it was just such a hot position. I knew it had to be at least 20%, because that’s about the difference from where the stock ended yesterday to where I bought at the $40 mark.

I actually pulled over 40% equivalent gains on the RGR position, if you were to treat it like a continuous position. Altogether, trading RGR added 7% to my account this year, with a position size that ranged from 0-15% depending on the day.

How’d that work out?

Well, mostly, I got real lucky on some purchases and sales.

I grabbed into the stock at $49 and then caught a big one time dividend announcement, selling out in the mid $50’s just before the divident record date. The stock fell into that day; and just a few weeks after that, that psychopath shot those kids.

I repurchased at $40, and then rode it up to $48. I bought back into the low $50’s, then sold most of those shares into the mid to high $50’s.

The stock dumped back into the $40’s, and from there I bought and sold most of the major moves lower, always for about 10% gains. The full list of buys and sells are detailed inside The PPT.

Cashing out yesterday, RGR was a solid set of moves this year that helped me hit new all time highs.

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Change Of Heart: Closed RGR Out

I changed my mind, and sold the entire RGR position for $48.63. The size of gains on this position is difficult to determine, but it’s definitely much higher than 20%. I’ve sold in and out of it numerous times in the past year, for big profits on every swing.

There’s a lot of headwind here. I’ll wait and if, God willing, it drops back to $40, maybe I’ll load up again.

(Offers a toast to RGR)

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