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AEC Beats And Michael Bilerman Loses Again

Here’s the brief take away from AEC’s earnings report.

The company still beat expectations across all lines, despite taking most of 2013 and a good part of 2012 off (they were scared of being short of cash and rebalanced). The stock dilutions did mildly impair performance per share, yet the stock is right where it started and year over year FFO still grew value. Besides, the company has hardly tried to drive ahead yet.

Towards the end of 2013, the company suddenly roared to life, acquiring three new properties and creating a joint venture with AIG Global Real Estate to develop the San Francisco market. The San Francisco note should be especially depressing to the string of analysts who have continually gone on the record that there is no way AEC makes it on the West Coast.

They are going to make it, you schmucks, and your reputation goes down in tatters.

Somewhere at Citi, Michael Bilerman is cowering in fear. His ‘doomshittery’ (trademark) leveled at Associated Estates Realty has crashed against the walls and come away with nothing. His obnoxious “questions” (most dubiously labeled) now ring hollow and foolish.

Shortly, Jeffrey I. Friedman, President, CEO and Hero (in the Greek sense) will emerge from behind his walls, give these serpents battle, and put whatever survives of their forces to flight, like the cheap cowards they are; as his last act of leadership.

But Michael Bilerman can be sure he will be struck down; not of the latter sort privileged to flee. He will get no respite to run, as Friedman has marked him for his asinine chicanery during certain quarterly performance calls.

Upon which Jeffrey I. Friedman will ride off into the sunset, going down as a man of legend amongst AEC shareholders.

In the meantime, dividends are up 7% from last year and I am bidding my time.

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Added To CCJ, Otherwise Doing Nothing

I added more CCJ for $20.40. I had slimmed the position at $21.80 when I raised cash across the board at the top.

CCJ is always a buy around or below $20.

Other than that, I’m sitting on my hands, with >40% cash. I’m not convinced we don’t keep selling off, but am open to change. Valuations are crazy, but where else are you putting your money?

Bernanke is gone, but Yellen is hardly a hawk.

We’re at about a 5.5% selloff in the S&P. I’d feel a little more sure footed if we were at 10%. That at least would mark a real correction, and would probably require the flattening of a handful of the most serial offenders of the hope trade. The most egregious of inflated share prices, like the TW’s and TSLA’s of the world…

I’m excited by how well BAS has held up during this selloff. That stock normally passes out at a nearby sneeze. Maybe all the soft hands have finally relinquished their last pitiful handful of shares, so that the firm grip of men can rally the company?

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As This Country Gets Her Pipeline Game On, Watch Out For TLP

I used to own TLP, and so I’m aware that this and similar businesses could be ground zero for any pipeline brought into operation. TLP runs a rail channeling business which primarily deals in chemicals and petroleum, and in the past I found a nice supply of internal documents from this partnership warning of the impact of an oil pipeline competing with them.

It’s incredible, but Morgan Stanley, who was one of the originators of the partnership and chief stakeholders, literally just closed a sale of their entire position to Russia’s Rosneft on December 20.

What immensely convenient timing, that they exited a position that could experience ranging disruption from the construction of a new pipeline just one month before a study is released that all but seals its construction…

Anyway, I’d keep an eye on TLP and not be surprised if it suddenly take a hit to PE multiples, as the realization dawns that their main terminal is about to be outbid.

If the partnership was still intact, I would possibly consider buying it after it corrects, because lateral movement of goods will still be necessary and TLP is in good position to hold that business. But honestly I personally don’t want to have close dealings with the Russians.

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PGJ Holds The Secret

Alright, the emerging market concerns caught me off guard. I confess, I have not been paying close attention for crises. It doesn’t completely matter as I was intent on raising cash early in 2014 anyway. But, I am grateful to others, especially The Fly for his solid piece yesterday. It shook me awake – I was unaware borrowing costs for the rest of the world were spiking like that.

My problem is that I do not want to sell much. I own what I do because I believe in it. I have a 35% cash position, and can raise that back to 50% easily. But any more than that risks me missing out on the exposure; some of which I’ve held for years. It defies the entire purpose of making these investments.

I do have some downside exposure already – TSLA will be obliterated if emerging markets make it to “Contagion Talk” proportions. I still hold what of those puts didn’t expire in January (2/3rds remain of what I initially bought).

My plan is to transition another 1-2% of my account into PGJ puts with a short maturity date, beginning now. That’s a China specific ETF which took a major shock last week. This thing doesn’t turn into a crisis without talk of China; nowhere else is big enough or critical enough to trigger that kind of fear. And you don’t have talk of China without PGJ getting annihilated.

If this turns into a panic, just looking at the Eurozone blowout in ’11 for guidance, it will probably happen within about 6 months from whence the chatter begins (now-ish). Maybe I’m safer with longer execution dates but that costs extra and I can always add in three months if we’re still bobbing.

In the back of my mind, I actually expect the Fed to rush in and save the day somehow. But this will give me a good bit of cover just in case. And these products still look cheap right now.

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Deploying Some Cash

I put 10% back into stocks, adding to all positions other than CCJ, UEC, silver and BAS, bringing cash to 35%.

Big push off the bottom.

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