This may become a sore point, but I’m willing to risk some of my reputation with freelance gambling.

We will not be collapsing this year.

There’s still too much that the system can do to stave off judgment. Despite rampant destruction of the euro, inflation levels are still relatively subdued in the euro block. Remember, really damning inflation is measured in X, not in %.

Also, most of the problems here in the US are still “vote-able”.

Do you think a real crisis can be tallied away? Hahaha. No no – the fiscal cliff is a bumper sticker. If you can legislate away a problem, it isn’t really a problem. It’s only a real crisis when all the politicians holding hearings in the world can’t save you; just ask Greece how that works.

Real problems don’t give a fuck about consensus.

So we’ll hit the summer doldrums with sky high euro crisis pessimism expecting record low economic activity, just in time for the winter pick- me-up and another holiday spectacle of television personalities declaring “all is fixed” in spite of a total lack of evidence to back it up.

This ongoing crisis has served to introduce volatility, not direction. When every bond auction is a choice between introducing low price inflation, or crippling and immediate deflation, yes you get some wide price ranges. Each participant needs to play every day based on their own book.

My advice to you is the same as it has been for well over one year now. Have lots of cash. And only short into the highest of euphoria.

Despite believing that this winter will be a repeat of the last two, I would not call this sell off a buying opportunity. Not yet.

Wait, be patient, and prepare.

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Here in the 9th floor office, I am attempting to catch up on the world events I passed by last week while taking vacation.

I spent the week on a lake with some friends. Which was, without a doubt, superior to spending it working. The weather was awesome.

Having looked only haphazardly over the news flow in between lunch and returning to the water each day, I’m sure I missed much. But here’s a brief summary of what I’ve gathered so far:

1 ) Spain is slowly being dragged to its death by the harpies
2 ) Italy is chained to Spain
3 ) We have had almost double digit numbers of EU summits
4 ) Rajoy is dumb
5 ) They still haven’t agreed on what the EU even is
6 ) The banks are losing horribly to the greatest bank run ever witnessed
7 ) China is imploding
8 ) Central banks are thinking about doing something – which is a polite way of saying their hands are completely tied
9 ) Total, actual money contributed for and ready to fight the funding crisis – 0 euros

I’m sticking with 25% cash, but not shorting anything. Silver’s sweet, the uranium market is heating up beneath the surface, and the rest of the stuff I own is fine.

Soon, the US will experience a contraction, all thanks to the euro going to parity against the dollar.

Please refer to my previous writings, as all of this was foretold long ago, in an office very much the one I’m sitting in, on this vary same floor.

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I spent the day in the heat, painting.

The healthcare decision was bullshit. How can you tax a product some people don’t want to buy? Fuck you very much, Roberts, I hope you choke on cancer you dirty turncoat.

If I thought Obama was going to win reelection, that’s changed now. They just threw a firecracker into an army ant nest. No amount of PR media spin bullshit is going to save the liberals from this. Democrat congressmen had better stay 1,000 yards away from any party convention center, because they’re dead.

My only solace is knowing that sometime in the next two years, we’ll experience a bond crisis, just like Europe – a.k.a. that place that we just have to be like because their healthcare is so awesome – and it will send prices soaring, effectively killing off all these jackasses I’m supposed to be insuring and driving anyone who promoted this from office.

We are very close to a purging fire. The people who pushed this are the same people who can’t balance a checkbook. We have a string of major events coming into the close of the year – the debt ceiling and the tax extensions being two of them. Let’s see how interested people are in buying bonds when they see fuckers like Rangel try and count on public television.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the old idiots are all still dumb. There was some rumor of a can kick. Okay, sure. Let me hear Merkel say it.

I guess if they want to destroy the euro, that’s fine. Commodities will keep falling, because the dollar will keep spiking until Bernanke can’t stomach it anymore. And a can kick in no way helps their economies.

I’m slowly gathering much silver for my person, almost like I have a bow tie on. Life’s grand in America now, aside from all that corporate destruction coming our way out of Europe. But the European implosion is a warning, as well as an opportunity. Commodities will continue to be eviscerated for the next one to two years – I wouldn’t be surprised if silver flirts with the teens. But it’s all a flight to safety. It always has been. After that, all I can see is the writing on the wall for the United States.

After Italy’s out of the way, the only thing staving off an American debt run is the ability of Chicago or Albany politicians, whose sole election strategy constitutes promising uneducated urban rats lots of bribes or building ponzi schemes out of public coffers, that this country is good for the money.

We are so fucked.

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I’m standing hunched over the desk in my 9th floor office, chewing lightly on a light Mediterranean salad, which is giving off slight aromatic aromas mingled with the sharp hint of vinegar, and a side of tender chicken while I work. In between taking bites, I can’t help but feel my lips purse into smirks.

Looking over my shoulder; WTI is now toppling into the $82-83 range. Yet, SCO is also falling, as is ERY, and reliably, TVIX is inside of $10 again (that product is useless).

What funniness!

I can’t say I blame anyone because the horizon is murky. So all products are being sold off together. Only cash is king today.

My expectation is that by the POMO meeting towards the end of June, policy makers will have already yielded some form of accommodative support to markets. However, it could come later. This is a big gamble, so having plenty of cash and feeling secure and confident about one’s book is critically important.

I was somewhat suspect of holding products like ETFs into today, because I figured they could sell off, much like last Friday. Being wary of the potential for intervention over the weekend, I sold SCO yesterday; missing out on big gains this morning.

However, that is the price of safety sometimes.

I’ve decided to hold ERY through the weekend – I’m going to trust that, if something big is announced this weekend, I’ll be able to get out with the herd on Monday. It’s a risk, but worst case, ERY opens down ~10% and it does 2-3% of damage to my portfolio.

At that point, I would theoretically deploy some of my – by then larger – cash position.

I yearn to buy more silver; but I cannot do so here. Lower; I need lower prices.

I’ll be preoccupied with some work for the remainder of the day. It’s my intention to stop back periodically and to finalize my strategy before the closing bell. If I do not get the chance, let me take this moment to wish you a fine weekend.

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“Further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.” – Ben Bernanke

Does this mean QE3 is full steam ahead?  Or does this mean Ben Bernanke is beating that dead confidence-horse, reminding us (again) that rates are not going to be raised.

Don’t be surprised when you get caught having read too far into this.  If Bernanke could get away with printing, he would have done so already.  It’s not exactly a secret that the jobs market is fostering under-employment.

I’ve already picked my side.  I’ll see you QE3 speculators at your one year anniversary.

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I have a confession. I didn’t even bothering listening to Obama’s speech last night.

I know the state of the Union; I get nothing out of listening to this guy. Some people enjoy hearing him, because he is “a great orator,” whatever the fuck that means. I suppose it’s not much different than enjoying the quality of sound. It’s probably an interest that rhetoric majors and guys who build electric speakers have in common. But I get nothing from hearing words uttered, however eloquently, that are totally devoid of content.

Myself, the 9th floor is kept quiet, unsullied by incoherent disruption. When I want to listen to something beautiful, it will be music. I can enjoy music because it isn’t constantly telling me how all my triumphs are owned by others. It also doesn’t iterate the same message; that I must surrender my hard won resources over to people I would sooner see dead than in control of any aspect of my life; over and over and over…

Listening to Obama talk is enjoyable to some, because the tones and sounds he makes are pleasant. But when I actually hear the words coming out of his mouth, my blood pressure spikes and I dream longingly of stuffing a basketball down his throat to muffle the stupidity.

So I didn’t listen to the speech. And after reading excerpts of it this morning, I can’t help but think to myself, “Good job, self. Time well spent…”

His speeches are nothing but a string of unrelated opinions and poorly made points, forced together. The only thing they have going for them are that the individual notes and tones of him talking are not unpleasant to hear. That hardly makes for good listening.

Good speeches and good music should come from the same place; they need theme, continuity and coherence, and cadence. They need structure and shape given to them. They need to serve a higher purpose than to simply hear scattered notes with no grand design.

For the record, you should always read speeches rather than listen to them. When you read them, any affability of the speaker is removed and you are forced to take the points of speech on their fluentness, merits, and ability to tie content to drive truth. Do that and I promise you won’t think Obama is that great of a speaker anymore.

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