Despite the looming $600 billion plus pump from Uncle Benjamin, that does not imply that all things are necessarily a “thought free” buy. Very specifically, I would still avoid natural gas here, and by extension coal.

I was thinking about this the other day, wondering if some of my about-to-be-deployed 25% cash position should be flung into old Jake Gint favorite NRP. It’s a coal royalty partnership that dishes out 10% annually. Pretty sweet…

But the answer I came to is, “no”.

Natural gas is experiencing pricing issues because of storage space problems. If you don’t have space for extra gas, you don’t have space to fill by bidding gas up in price. If you can’t bid gas up in price, then the only bid for higher prices is coming from things like UNG that have limited ability to impact final sold prices.

Which in my eyes means that natural gas could still crater into Christmas on the backs of a very mild winter and overproduction.

If natural gas should lose the bid, energy companies are going to have a field day – we’re talking the-greatest-fucking-Christmas-season-ever, kind of time, as they meet their quotients on ever cheaper fuel.

And by extension, coal would continue to be mutilated without exception as plants continue to convert to natural gas generators.

Thus, even though QE3 is the greatest announcement ever if you just want to buy shit and check your brain at the door, I could see lots of people taking a stick in the eye by jumping the gun and buying into some select commodities. I’m not short these commodities, mind you; just tastefully ignoring them.

The play on QE3 is most definitely found in the precious metals. Even some of the manufacturing metals could be risky as I do not foresee QE3 doing much to help real demand for goods – look what happened to Europe’s manufacturing sector after the LTRO’s and ESM/EFSF were put into effect. It would suck to be long steel only to see the sector shed 30% more of gross demand from here.

No, no, stick to silver and gold. And be prepared mentally for the day when shorting oil and the other manufacturing commodities is the right move (but not yet).

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Hahahahhaha BAS shorts are in the incinerator now. The company is one of the highest moving stocks on volume, on the announcement that Bernanke is hell bent on higher commodity prices. BAS is going to $18+…go ahead and quote me on that.

My position is in around $12, 10% of my portfolio at the time.

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Holy shit, what did I almost miss!?

At work today, the entirety of my desk is in crisis management mode as some client (not even mine) has managed to transform my life into the epitome of hell – I haven’t worked this hard on any of MY projects in almost two months.

How horrible would it have been, had I missed the greatest announcement ever made.

Ben Bernanke saying he’s going to purchase mortgages until the labor market improves is not much different than me saying I’m going to punch a guy with a lisp in the mouth until he starts speaking the Queen’s English.

But, why should I care? I have silver up the ass, and am all long with only a 25% cash position.

That cash will be put to work shortly.

Until my next move I can add only – we rally until Christmas.

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I am close…ever so close…to putting on a feeler position in SCO. I’m sitting on Twitter, trying to coax myself into the pool.

It is difficult. Oil prices are too high. But I recognize that they can still be too high much higher from here.

In the past, I’ve been a little early to the game, and held a little too long – or too short. It’s a tough wrap, because oil should be in the $70’s. Maybe, if you are Po Pimp, you can argue for the $80’s.

But $90 oil is just stupid. It makes no sense. We’re seein a global slow down, so the key input cost to all productivity is prohibitively expensive? Sure…

So the question is – will oil get into the $100’s again?

I saw an article today from CNN, saying just that. QE and Iran – the same old argument; never mind its abject failure before now.

If these kinds of people are staking their reputations on higher prices, it makes me feel better. I’ll probably slap on a small position, but I want to see us past the morning first.

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With the bond market showing US treasury yields cratering, down more than 2%, you would think we were about to enter the black hole. Yet, the $EURUSD continues to push higher, creating a weaker dollar.

China is imploding – still. Europe is imploding – still. The US is stagnating.

Commodities are running. But stocks are dropping.

This is a maddening market. Staring out my 9th floor window, I have half a mind to fling my chair through it. The passerby’s below would be so shocked, they might stop buying bonds and oil at the same time.

But probably not.

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WTI is above $90 a barrel again. Gasoline is pushing $3.60 on a national average (it’s back at $4 in Detroit). And meanwhile any real world use of petroleum products continues to dissipate as global growth slows and the euro collapses under the largest collection of broken promises and misplaced faith ever assembled.

Folks, this cannot continue.

I am not ready yet, particularly not with Christmas just around the corner. But make no mistake, I am interested in shorting oil and energy (again) because it’s going to crater (again) for the 3rd time in three years (again…).

The last “again” was redundant. But my time is valuable and I’ve come too far.

Watch carefully friends, as I will be making my first push to short oil back at $100, and gasoline most definitely if it hits $3.70. Every 15% higher from there gets an add. Exact strategies will be pending shortly (probably the same ones I’ve used before now).

Go ahead oil market. Try me.

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