`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

“Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!”

He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought —
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.

And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.

“And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!’
He chortled in his joy.

_____________
(Note: Above is actual eye witness report of my Fed Dollar battle today)

Not much to report tonight.  A little bit of pullback at midday, but I did indulge in some egregious silver miner [[CDE]] call options (as reported in the earlier thread, I took down 40 Oct. 17.50’s at $2.60) for a lark.  I really do think CDE will be a nice hold here for a bit.

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] had some run up today (to $14.87!) but then sold off to end the day at $13.40. This stock doesn’t seem to know what to do (it was up again 25 cents in AH), but I would guess it’s going to consolidate along with a bunch of other fast runners here, including even our $HUI index. I still like silver here, as I may have mentioned.

On the non-precious side The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] has broken out over $33 and my next target is $39. Despite all the other rockets popping, this is still my best performing Jackson at +99.6% since our May 1st inception.

Other non PM Jacksons that look strong here are again Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] bides its time, but reserves the Hippocratic Oath for now. Other non-PM “hoppers” I like include RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] , Calgon Carbon Corporation [[CCC]] , Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] and yes, even Alcoa Inc. [[AA]] .

The Jacksonian Portfolio stands at a “mahvelous” 31.4% return for the little more than four months its been in place. I thank you for your patronage.

See y’awl tomorrow.

__________

Comments »

 

Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 

Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:

My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	28-Aug	4-Sep	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        32.92	$      32.34	-1.76%		$             9,764	-0.10%		Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO	10.56	11.21	6.16%		$           10,504	0.39%		$11.50 is BTFO target
GDX	40.18	45.02	12.05%		$           13,626	0.98%		Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD	93.87	97.53	3.90%		$           11,217	0.26%		Looking for $100.
IAG	12.02	13.84	15.14%		$           17,065	1.55%		In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON	83.00	82.24	-0.92%		$           13,047	-0.07%		Coiling on low volume
PAAS	19.99	22.45	12.31%		$           13,483	0.99%		BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD	39.95	45.98	15.09%		$           12,705	1.15%		Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV	14.50	15.97	10.14%		$           12,973	0.79%		Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW	10.45	11.59	10.91%		$           11,258	0.74%		Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI	18.28	21.09	15.37%		$           12,269	1.13%		Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT	46.74	47.70	2.05%		$             9,502	0.12%		Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC	11.98	11.89	-0.75%		$             9,787	-0.04%		May have bottomed at $11
TCK	25.20	24.36	-3.33%		$           23,505	-0.47%		May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)	$        0.00	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Same
AVG (weekly)			5.67%		$       193,350	7.41%
AVG (monthly)			7.88%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			32.81%		on cash return	28.90%

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!

___________________

Comments »

Listen, I just won’t do it.

I will not.

To boast and brag about the egregious Epic of Gilgamesh-like  wins over the last two days would be… well, it would be unseemly.

Instead, I’ll show why I think this is “something different”  than the last run up we had in late May/early June.   Take a look at this week’s “star” Jackson IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] :

Yeah, that’s a five-year chart.   And charts looking like this are all over the PM map this week, like drunks at a Calistoga wine tasting festival.  Breakouts on considerable volume.  And yes, there will be pull-backs.  

What’s more, there’ll be more to come.  Remember my $HUI chart from just this past Sunday’s post?   Well, circumstances have certainly accelerated, but it also looks like there’s a lot of room to run just to get back to the old highs…. viz:Keep an eye on the Jacksons as we head into the meat of this breakout.   Besides IAG, there’s also Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , [[PAAS]]  , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]  and my favourite (sic) long term gold play Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Also, as I expected, Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] had a nice rebound-breakout day today as well.

Non-Jacksons Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[EXK]] are long term favourites…. be well.

____________________

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I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

Thomas Jefferson, – “O.J.” — the Original Jackson (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)

______________________________________________

With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index.   Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.

As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period.   Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.

____________________
 
I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area.  That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.

A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today.   Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but  [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.

As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]]   and [[CDE]] on the silver side.   I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets.   Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date. 

If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless. 

No excuses, ladies and gents.  It’s “sarious” (sic) time.  See you at the finish line.
_________________________________________

I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results.  Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders.  No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .  Get these while they are cheap.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	21-Aug	28-Aug	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        28.20	$      32.92	16.74%		$             9,940	1.00%		Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break.
EGO	11.02	10.56	-4.17%		$             9,895	-0.25%		Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now.
GDX	39.30	40.18	2.24%		$           12,161	0.16%		Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40)
GLD	93.65	93.87	0.23%		$           10,796	0.02%		Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50
IAG	11.93	12.02	0.75%		$           14,821	0.07%		Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk.
MON	83.78	83.00	-0.93%		$           13,168	-0.07%		Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s.
PAAS	19.52	19.99	2.41%		$           12,006	0.17%		Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200)
RGLD	39.50	39.95	1.14%		$           11,039	0.08%		Closed above 200 day but lagging peers.
SLV	13.92	14.50	4.17%		$           11,779	0.29%		Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04
SLW	9.37	10.45	11.53%		$           10,150	0.70%		Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air.
SSRI	18.24	18.28	0.22%		$           10,634	0.01%		Still lagging all MA’s, and peers.
TBT	49.55	46.74	-5.67%		$             9,311	-0.32%		Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target
TC	14.29	11.98	-16.17%		$             9,861	-0.96%		Massive dilution effect from secondary
TCK	26.73	25.20	-5.72%		$           24,315	-0.83%		RSI turning back up again, could be time.
Cash (000)	$        8.63	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale
AVG (weekly)			0.40%		$       182,520	0.07%
AVG (monthly)			9.91%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			25.14%		on cash return	21.68%

Comments »

Thanks for waiting the whole day. Turns out you didn’t miss much on my “super-secret” pick of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] today, although you might have been able to buy it at the lows of $4.01 had I mentioned it first thing like I thought I would. But let’s be honest, how many of you would’ve grabbed your cups at that point and drank deep of this possibly downswirling poisonous homebuilder??

That’s right, none o’ ya. Besides, I bot it at $4.21 near yesterday’s close (when I announced it on The PPT — are you subscribing yet??), so I don’t feel bad about letting you in on it at right around the same price.

Why Beezy? I have no idea, I guess the Inflation Gods are moving into even the crappy homebuilder space. The only thing I know is the charts are showing compelling interest and very close to “BTFO” levels at today’s close. Please to enjoy the following picture show… first the weekly for the price and volume overview:

Then the Daily to show the turtle head that caused me to take my “starter position” at $4.21

On top of this new pick, the Jacksons are starting to make noise again, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] making nice moves today.   Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] continues to be punished for the sin of issuing capital to Canuckistanian Securities Firms, may God curse their Yukon Cornelius beards to immediate dreadlocked disarray.    Soon, I will be forced to buy a tonne (sic) more.   We shall see.

My [[GDX]] call play is beginning to look nice as well, and I believe all will  be well with us if [[UUP]] continues to stay below $23.30.

Best to you all.

 

___________

Comments »