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I am sorry if you were unceremoniously dipped in pineapple sauce and then stuffed into the cherry smoker today, ending up braised to a fine turn.

It’s not like I didn’t give you ample warning.  In fact, that warning was even more ample today in The PPT, where I announced I was adding to my growing stacks of SKF, TZA and ERY certificates. 

Those certificates, and their already in-place comrades, yielded substantial gains for me and mine this day.  And I’m pretty sure they are not done, as of yet.   In fact, given some of the panicked calls I received from friends today, I think tomorrow should be a pretty interesting open. 

If you haven’t gone short anything, it’s probably a little late to start right now.  I’ll have more on that with some charts tonight.  In the meantime, enjoy this Indian Summer we are having in God’s Country, and try not to get too upset about the wayward state of the economy.

Help is on the way.  My best to you.

Addenda:  as it seems Le Monsieur has grown tired of most of you over at his site.  Please let the man rest.  In the meantime, do feel free to vent your concerns and comments on my fora. 

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Rare Photo of Mr. Bilderberg’s Dog, Barbarossa!
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I’ve cut back once again to about a 25% position in my silver and gold positions.   This is merely a precaution, as the clouds looming seem ready to ram us down the throat of an all encompassing Deflationary Fat Man.

I also want to have some cash on hand for anticipated lower prices, especially in the miners.   We’ve been down this road enough times in the past ten years to see some of our favorite names go to “poleaxe pricing” — that state of irrational selling likened to a shareholder being bashed hard enough on his melon that all opposable thumb functions disappear, and share certificates cascade to the floor willy nilly.   We want to be there to pick those newly discarded certificates so as to be better able to offer them back to aforesaid bashees at prices significantly premium to their current ones.

I also added more TZA and SKF yesterday, and — in the spirit of true deflationism — added almost as large a position in the oil double neg, ERY.   I am now pretty massively short, on a dollar basis and on a “relative dollar” basis, especially, as all of these positions are leveraged shorts (either 2x or 3x short ETF’s).

I will likely maintain the SKF as I have been, and leave it largely alone.  With the TZA and ERY I will probably be more opportunistic, trading in and out as warranted. 

Any changes in this philosophy — and I may change radically tomorrow, such is the nature of a volatile bear market — I will communicate immediately, although actual trades will be announced in The PPT first.   I don’t pound the drum on that valuable service enough, but now is a very crucial time to be participating, not only for what the “better than the average bear” traders are saying in there, but for what they are NOT saying as well.

Best to you all.

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Owsley Brown II, a pillar of the city of Louisville in the truest sense of the word, passed last evening, at age 69.  It was quite sudden and unexpected and most of us who knew him are in shock, as he was a very vigorous and youthful man who was intimately involved with many charitable and cultural organizations throughout the city.

If you know me, you know that I am not overly impressed by those types we referred to at school as “born on third base.”   In the case of Mr. Brown however, I make a significant exception.  We were not close, not even “friends,” but I had enough interaction with the man in social and work situations to note both his grace and his almost anachronistic humility.   He had a smile for everyone, and never seemed out of sorts.

Some of the obituaries already printed (like this one in the Wapo) make mention of his charitable activities, but in truth these reports only scratch the surface.  The man truly embodied the aphorism “to whom much is given, much is expected.”  I believe his generosity will be his lasting legacy in the city.

I excerpt the beginning of the Washington Post obituary below:

Former Brown-Forman CEO Owsley Brown II dies at age of 69 after

brief illness

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Former Brown-Forman Corp. chairman and CEO Owsley Brown II, who took the company founded by his great-grandfather and spread its reach to liquor stores, bars and restaurants worldwide, died late Monday after a brief illness. He was 69.

Brown’s sudden passing drew an outpouring of reaction from political leaders who praised his business skills and philanthropic spirit.

“Louisville lost a great friend today; he will be missed,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who praised Brown’s “pioneering career” and “generous philanthropic efforts.”

Brown oversaw the Louisville-based company’s transformation into a formidable player in spirits markets worldwide. Late in his career, Brown-Forman shed its Lenox fine china and Hartmann luggage divisions to focus on its core beverage business.

Brown-Forman is one of the largest American-owned spirits companies. Its long lineup of brands includes Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Southern Comfort and Finlandia vodka.

“Owsley was a truly remarkable man with a brilliant mind,” said current Brown-Forman CEO Paul Varga. “His combined analytical and creative talents enabled him to be both a visionary and a practical steward of the company’s business.”

In its last full fiscal year, Brown-Forman reported net income of $571.6 million, or $3.90 per share, on revenue of $3.4 billion. The company has nearly 4,000 employees worldwide.

Brown, a Yale graduate who earned a master’s in business administration from Stanford University, served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Army at the Pentagon, according to a Brown-Forman release.

He began his Brown-Forman career in 1968, continuing a family legacy that began with the company’s founding in 1870.

Brown rose to become the company’s CEO in 1993 and added the title of chairman two years later. During his tenure, Brown-Forman dramatically boosted its international presence and modernized its marketing efforts.

When he took over as CEO, less than one-fourth of Brown-Forman’s net sales came from outside the U.S. By the time he stepped down as chief executive officer in 2005, nearly half of Brown-Forman’s revenues were generated from international markets. That trend has continued, and the company now gets about 55 percent of its total net sales from non-U.S. markets.

Brown retired as company chairman in 2007 and from its board of directors in 2008.

He was also a prominent philanthropist and preservationist known for his support for art, music and environmental protection.

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I have done nothing different with my portfolio today, save that I took out a large TZA insurance policy to augment my SKF-lles position.  I still maintain my already noted position in AGQ and my other small gold and silver positions.  I am still about 40% cash.

I am again traveling this evening and all day tomorrow, but will check in as I may.

Best to you all.

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Sometimes I don’t know what’s wrong with you people.   Hootin’ and hollerin’ like a bunch of purple Kool-Aid grape apes, rooting on a man’s demise in slo-mo barely contained rage.

I speak, of course, of last night, when there were more than a few on these boards who were ready to spit on a broken wheelchair in their haste to condemn we beknighted silver bulls in our darkest hour (that dark hour being about 3 am last night).   What an ugly display… and most ungentlemanly.

But these ungainly thugs were left grasping at phantoms by an hour or so before the market open this morning, when silver had fought it’s way back to just under $30 and ounce.   More important, the silver trend line held today in AGQ.   Not, as I had thought, at first support, but rather exactly at the long term trend line.

Sometimes when these things work so perfectly, it’s almost like a thing of magick (sic).  This morning, right around 10:00 am, I stood in awe as the candle bottom stopped right at the rising trend line that’s marked this bull since the ’09 Recovery, hovered there for about fifteen minutes, and then slowly — inexorably — made it’s climb through second support, all the way to that first support line.   Note the change from yesterday’s AGQ weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The bounce off that uptrend line is very strong ju-ju, especially given that we are still extremely oversold in the PM and silver sectors specifically.  We might get some “stall” at that first support line we stopped at today, or we may not.  Silver is up this evening again, although we know from last night how great the overnight swings can be in this sport.

I do think that uptrend line will be tested at least once more, unless the dollar begins to break here significantly.   If it does, I will likely supplement by adding more EXK, SLW and AG to the port.   One thing is for sure… you have your line in the sand for all major stops, whether mental or fixed.

Best to you all, and try not to let the hatahs hate too much on you.  It’s hateful.  😉

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u69VNU4pJ4I&feature=player_embedded 450 300]

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Some said we were crazy on Friday when we began “buying the blood” late in the afternoon like a bunch of crepuscular vampyres banging our fists at the front desk of the Red Cross Depository.

And maybe we were.

But there was a plan in mind, and one part of it was taking into account the massively oversold status of the metal in the near term.   The other was the support levels we were beginning to hit.  I thought we were ready for a bounce of some velocity.

That doesn’t mean I think this down-stroke is over.  Not altogether, at least.   Just like I don’t think this overall market bear cycle is over, and that we’ll get further down action there as well.  What I do believe is that we’ll get that nice rebound here, and then have to be out again for the next drop when we whack near-term resistance.    Note the following markup of the AGQ (double silver) weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you will note, the party should be over by $150 or so, and I’ll be out of much of that AGQ by then, if not sooner.  Because the weekly is showing that while the RSI is near-term oversold, the remaining stochs are pointing to further ruination.  What’s more, that long term trend line is beckoning (as per the chart above), and it’s very likely that we will see it one more time (at sub $100) before we see new highs again.

What I don’t think, however, is that we get another deflationary event like we did in 2008.  Not for a while now, at least.

Of course, this is a play fraught with risk, and I will have stops in place that will respect the volatilty of the double-ETF, while also accomodating my overall risk profile.   I implore you to do the same, and perhaps consider SLV as a replacement vehicle for this trade if you lean to the more risk averse.

My best to all of you this weekend.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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