While it may have seemed we only experienced a slight pullback day for the market, today was in fact a sad day for the Jacksonians, as we saw another original candidate get the old “heave ho” out the door for lack of performance.  I will admit, I gave Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] a little more leeway than I did Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , as it carried with it a phat dividend (over 10% as of today) and it was a royalty play rather than an operating miner (much like fellow Jackson Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is a gold royalty play), which I thought gave it some “rent safety” over the operators.  No such luck.

You see in prudent Jackson land, there’s only so much loss a play can take, and when NRP broke $19.31 today (a significant support level), it hit our stop, and we sold the remainder (207.555 shares) for a loss of 19.9%. Luckily, I only had 1/2 a position left, having sold the first half at $20.50. Still the bludgeoning (before dividend payments) was substantial.

What was I thinking picking a stock with a symbol so easily dyslexia’d into the acronym for National Public Radio, anyway?   Should’ve been a sign to me …

Luckily, despite these minor setbacks, the rest of the Jacksonians are hammering along hard enough to keep the overall returns over 21.6% since inception on May 1st. The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] remain my top winners (even as I added to my TCK a scant few weeks ago at current levels, my blended return is still 40%).

I believe the gold and silvers are going to take off here as we head into the last months of the year, as they are wont to do historically. In that regard, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are my top performers, with returns of 44.64%, 39.13% and 30.05%, respectively, since May 1st inception. Of those, I think SLW will have the greatest momentum as we head towards Christmas, because silver continues to be undervalued compared to gold.

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Speaking of gold opportunities, I threw out New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] yesterday, and although it didn’t move an inch either way today, I continue to think it a strong play here, especially on a pullback to the $3.30 area.   If we’re not that lucky, I believe it’s a buy over $3.55 as well. 

I also wanted to point out another junior that I think will be a mover going forward here — Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Have a look at the daily chart:

And really, I think the weekly should cinch it for you.  It’s so eeeeeasy– a cup and handle, for goodness sakes!  And on the weekly, no less.    My take:  wait for that break of $3.21, and then… blammo!

 

One last admonition — watch [[UUP]] tomorrow for your signal.  A break above $23.31 or so will mean a little bit more waiting on the gold selections.  But if  UUP turns down again– towards my target of $23.05, that will probably mark the break out run of a great many junior gold and silver plays.

Best of luck to all my Jacksonian stalwarts. 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0qlOEKkBWA 450 300]

I was just off reading some other blogs and I’m finding that there’s quite a bit of misery out there.  You might imagine from where that misery stems, if you are wont to read more “misery oriented” blogs than this one.

In one particular meloncholy review,  I even started to feel sorry for my friend Tim, The Enchanter.   He’s a little bit down in the jowls these days because the world hasn’t fallen off a cliff as properly prescribed quite yet.   It’s a monetary phenomenon, I says.  It’s a conspiracy of Owls and black flutes, he says.   Whatever.

I’m here for some solace for the bearish and perhaps an idea or two.   My friends, we are coming to an exciting time of year and I hope you will bear with me.  September, you see, is a traditional crap pile for all that is Equity.   Something to do with the Medieval harvest payments, or the rise of the Mayan Moon, but it’s always been our worst month for stocks since your grandmother can remember.  That should make some of our Ursines, happy, no?

The good news for we Jacksons is that August comes before it, and August marks the start of the precious metal bull season on into it’s tumescent end in Happy Claus.  In other words, it’s a good idea to buy gold and silver here in Jewelry’s Worst Month because it only gets better as everyone picks out their silver pumpkins brooches, gold encrusted turkey lame dresses and platinum filigreed Christmas chokers in the coming crispiness.

And don’t even get me started about back to school.  

Let’s have a look at our friend Baby Huey ($HUI) shall we ?  Here’s a triangle you’re going to love by next month:

You’ll note we’ll be “do or die” by mid-September.  Want to make a wager on whether we break out before then? 

Now a specific pick that I really like, and have for a while, Non-Jackson though it may be.   Here’s the old chart of New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] I gave you back on May 21st, 2009:

Now here we are three months and 45.5% higher at $3.49, but don’t thank me just yet.   I think we’re getting ready to rock the Casbah in an unctious and lugubrious manner.  Checkout what chart analysis number two brings forth:

Yeah, it’s pulled back a little on Friday, but that may mark your opportunity.  Frankly, I’d be surprised if  they bludgeoned this little junior miss back to $3.25, but if “they” did, that would be a magnificent place to throw in an order.   I know I will be looking to add here on Monday, or maybe Tuesday if we do get  second day of pullback, and I will keep you updated.  

These juniors can really move with this gold bull, so make sure you keep an eye on Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[BAA]] and their brethren, even as you line your portfolio with sturdy Jacksons for the coming Fall (possible pun intended). 

Best to you all.

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(Fed Chairman at Work)
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Let’s not get overexcited about such things as green shoots and bamboo leaves, shall we? Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not convinced this whole basket of cats in not going to just roll over and die here anyway, but what’s going on in the market has almost nothing to do with visions of recovery and everything to do with the continuing decline of the dollar.

Let me tell you, I’ve seen ugly charts for UUP before, but this might be one of the uglier, in terms of the sharp declines taken by the oscillators, that I’ve seen in a while. This tells me that the Fed and our trading allies know that credit is tightening again, and that the dollar spigot will be awash to get us through the tight September months again. Check it out:

Look at that accumulation/distribution line… what the heck? In any case, my first “back to work” market thesis reminder should be a familiar one — this is no time to get shaken out of your precious metal, hard commodity positions.

I also believe U.S. company buyouts will increase as our weaker currency provides better values for our overseas (and cross border) friends, especially those countries who specialize in commodity provision, like Canuckistan and Oz. China, of course, will also be a player, and she has shown she’ll be a willing buyer of commodity assets.

Hold tight, and watch that double bottom target area as marked on the daily UUP chart. Cheers and thanks for your patience.

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Could it possibly be?

Could it be that time again?   I mean, it’s been so long…. 

But the market is perking up a bit ovah heah.   After all the carnage in real estate and in Florida real estate in particular… could it actually be time to buy The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] again?

It seems nuts, but it appears that our old friend from the Florida Panhandle, St. Joe, patron saint of beachfront Pensacola property, is breaking the futz out once again.    

What’s that?  There’s thousands of Floriduh (sic) properties for sale at half price? 

Toss off, I don’t care.

What’s that?  There are whole condo complexes in Fort Meyers that have been taken over by squatting gypsies from Romania?

I don’ t give a damn.

Excuse me?  There are Miami real estate agents who are supplementing their income via croupier work on floating casino boats out of Key Biscayne?

Pay me.

Don’t give me any of that backtalk, see?  I don’t want to hear your whining.   JOE is going to town for one reason only — he’s a secret Jackson.  And no it’s got nothing to do with his barely concealed redneck origins.   It’s because Joe’s main assets are largely land— primo real estate, including beach front property — in Florida.  

 And that may sound nuts because of the developed properties that remain unsold, but the fact is land does not depreciate, and land banking is just another form of hard money asset gathering.  Make no mistake, as “land banks” go — JOE is one of the primo properties extant.  

So here’s to JOE, and here’s the daily and weekly’s to show you where I think the more likely entries lie.   Be cautious right now, because, despite the breakouts this week, it is somewhat egregiously overbought here.  Wait for the pullback.    This time, I give you weekly first to show you the breakout:

And now the daily, to see the suggested entry on  a pullback:

On the PM front, the silver’s remain strong, and I will probably have some gold junior buys for tomorrow as well.    Best to you all.  

PS — Thaaaahhh Yankeees win, thah Yankees win. 

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Last I saw him he was running around, all ass & tail, gunning down shots of Don Julio and screaming “New Lows in July, damnit!!”  

But here it is August, and the only lows I’m seeing are the catatonic stair steps of [[UUP]] as it heads to its crypt in the basement.  Remember my post about the “noise zone” from the other day?  Here’s our result:

Looks like $23 is the make or break area, here.   If we get there, I think we get at least a bounce.   Would not shock me to see further deterioration after that.

Again, that means good things for our PM and Jacksonian buddies, and they all rallied today, with the overall portfolio up 3.23% today and now breaking to new highs since our May 1st inception, with a return to date of 26.62%.   My only regret is that I didn’t put more cash to work last week when I upped my Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] holdings back to their former strengths.  

Another interesting note — while Mr. Anderson — The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] remains my top performer with a 92.81% return since May 1st launch, my second chasing close on his heels is also my newest pick Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which is up an astonishing 88.76% since first purchase back on June 16th at $15.04.    Most of the PM’s are in the 20’s percentile range (still off their June highs, mind you) with IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] leading that pack, up 32.06%.

The one Jacksonian clunker (for which I receive a large “cash” dividend) is Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] , at a negative (4.11%).   I will consider NRP’s inclusion in the ongoing list, unless it’s laggard status improves.

As for the best of the Jackson’s currently, the silvers seem to be standing out nicely, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] breaking out past it’s 61.8% fib, and looking to continue here to resistance in the near term at $11.00 or so.   I of course will hold onto it until the bonds of time are loosed.   Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] also looks extremely strong here, with another breakaway gap, up over 6% today like SLW.  [[PAAS]] was only up over 5% today, but is exhibiting the same tendencies.  

Last, non-Jackson junior silver [[EXK]] was also very strong today, with a nice volume spike and also gapping up over resistance. levels.   It seems to be heading to it’s recent highs ($2.40) , and I’d say that’s going to come quickly.   My analysis is that the Central banks were so busy suppressing gold today that they forgot about her little brother, and the beach ball popped above the water for all to see….

Onto the non-Jackson golds–  I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which is becoming almost Jacksonian in its stately and dignified rise here.   Take a look at it’s weekly chart when you get a chance — it’s a thing of beauty.   As mentioned in my comments section, [[BAA]] broke da Flummox out today over the $2.14 barrier I had mentioned in my chart the other day, and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] is looking to move higher.  I also still like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]],  even though it’s rise was crippled by the Curse of DMG early this morning.  

On the non PM front, I still very much like Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] — which also has A and B warrants, if you are interested in that type of thing.   I also applaud any of you that took my [[CNXT]] breakout signal chart from the other day to heart.  I think they’ll be more there, btw.  

 That should be enough for you to digest for now, but check in my comments section tomorrow for trading updates.   Best to you all.

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Yeah, I’m afraid our recent rise and today’s hiccup are all about the craptastic dollar, which my friend Cash & Guns pointed out yesterday may be indicating a rebound.   Let’s have a look at our favorite dollar proxy — [[UUP]] . Here’s the daily:
 

You can see on the daily chart above that we just popped into a pretty stiff consolidation zone today, and that it runs all the way to $24 — which is also close to the significant 61.8% retrace of that long term move at $24.06 or so.    But seeing as we’ve already penetrated that line, it’s now become resistance, and will serve as a barrier to our dollar rebound.

Now look at the weekly:

I will leave the conjecture up to you, but it looks like our $UUP dollar may have a hard time getting back over that $24 hump, even as it climbs back from that bear flag breakdown.   At least we know where the hard road lies, should it do so. 

Right now, I’m taking this as a signal to hold my precious metal positions.   Seeing as I’d do that anyway, you might rightly accuse me of pattern bias.  However, until the trend changes, I will not consider hedging my positions.

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[[CNXT]] , which I previewed here on Sunday night as a possible “BTFO” if it broke $1.50 did just that today, proving that the Fly’s tech thesis seems to be at least partially intact.   In honour (sic) of that win today, I will post two other “techish” names that look to be moving out of long term downtrends as well.

The first is really a medical device play, and — ironically — it was mentioned in a TC post to my blog the other night as a defense of the Israeli contributions to humanity (you’d think the Old Testament and Bar Raefeli would have been enough, but no, these guys just keep on giving).   Ladies and gentlemen, teeny tiny colon submarine producer Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] :

Note, that’s a weekly chart, which really emphasizes the significance of the trend break, IMHO.

Next weekly chart shows a similar strong trend change in Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] .   This one might even get all you “head and shoulders” fanatics’ back legs a twitching:

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