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The Techno Classic

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It’s late and I just got home.  Burning the candle on both ends is probably not the best idea for your trusty Jacksonian surveyor, but I think we are coming into a critical period that may require some re-enforcement for loyal plebs seeking to make sense of this dollar killing precious metal market.  Therefore I post…

Silver is beginning to make great stirrings in the market and in the loins of pit traders across the globe.  Interestingly, the metal is still lagging some of it’s more accurate pre-indicators, specifically, it’s publicly traded miners.   Among the finest is that of SLW, whose weekly chart reveals that it has broken to new highs:

It appears SLW is just now breaking out to new highs in the weekly, and may have some runway left, stochastically speaking, even as it approaches oversold conditions.

The underlying metal, however, illustrated here in the guise of the widely held ETF,  SLV, seems to have much more potential momentum in front of it.   Look at this weekly:

 

In short, I would not be short silver or the miners here, and I would be looking at those resistance lines as a key to my adding regimen.   If the above lines are broken, then I believe the remainder of the silver miners will begin to show the same kind of new high action we are seeing in the high quality SLW right now.

Again, to reiterate, I am talking about PAAS, EXK, MVG, SSRI and even CDE and HL here.  Watch these in conjunction with the chart above and with Papa SLW, who will continue to lead the way.

My best to you and your mithril mail shirt assembly’ing.

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“Catch the wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the world…”

— Emperor Leto II,  Atreides

Yes, Pop was quite a surfer wasn’t he?   No matter, today’s walk back in nostalgia-land is brought to you by the good dwarves of Moria who remind you “There’s no better time than late August to stuff your goody bag full of shiny robot parts, preferably made out of pure gold and silver.”

As my dear friend and father of the Mentat, Johnz Hopkinz, M. Le Docteur Le Fly likes to say, “To every time there is a season, etcetera, etcetera, Peter Cetera.”

And this hear is the season, young plebs, to stock up on your favourite gold and silver plays.   Today, I banqued mass coinage on AGQ.   I plan to take that trip to at least $70, and moooah.

But the real play here is in the Jacksons of choice — the silver goddess, SLW, its slower little sister, PAAS, and the robust brotherhood of the three middie golds — ANV, EGO and IAG.

If you are of sound mind and body, you might want to spartaculate on even smaller stuff like GSS and BAA and EXK and RBY.   These are all considerations for the coming weeks and months.   Personally I try to own “one of everything” at least.

You never know when you will see extraordinary action out of such crazy outliers like VGZ.   This is why I try to keep an inventory.  If you haven’t the patience of the pocketbook, GDX for the bigs will do, and GDXJ for the smaller names.

Even the execrable TBT seemed to turn today.   I did not add, but then, I’ve got plenty, and I’m happy to support your bid by never selling.  Your welcome.

Be on the alert for my top calls tomorrow and going forward.   The Lord God Emperor has decreed a moratorium on bullsheet currency.   Only true money shall prevail from this point on.

Best to you all.

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Don’t dare ask me about the dollar, small pleb!
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Quickly, quickly now, as the spice melange takes maximum hold…  I shall reveal the revelations of the spice dreams as controlled by special Bene Gesserit training taught exclusively to me by Madonna.

First, I reiterate, with cement-like, no…concrete-like certainty, the devolution of this market will be marked by the application of much spice melange to my upper respiratory tract, especially my nostrils, where it is most tasty and vision-producing.

I envision our dollar to be entering some significant retrace territory on the weekly chart here, and soon, trouble:

As you can see, we are not yet oversold on the weekly (we should not be as we bottomed a mere two weeks back), but we are approaching some significant Fibonacci retrace levels at 61.8% of the latest large drop from the March to December ’09 period.

Not coincidentally, that huge dollar drop brought us our relief market.   Now I think she gets ready to drop once again, as the dollar “recovery” continues to weaken at the firm but effeminate hands of Ben Bernanke.

The dollar daily is even more immediate:

As you will note, on the daily, the Gom Jabbar  lies even closer to the neck of the weakling dollar, as it is overbought already after a mere 11 days since it’s last bottom-scrape.    A mere word will bring it to it’s knees, and I think that word is “Fibonacci.”

Or it could be “black candle,” even though that’s two words, technically.

No matter, gold held fast today, and as I commented to M. Le Docteur earlier today, whenever gold and the dollar rise simultaneously, it usually means one of them is about to break.   Today, the dollar blinked first but recovered.   The rest of the week should tell our tale.

In the meantime, gold and silver miners may continue to consolidate here.  While you are eating that sandwich and waiting for them to break out once again, take a gander at ANDE, the old Jacksonian agricultural stalwart.   I expect MON to recover here with the rest of the ags as well.

May the great red beard and moustaches of Frank Herbert bless you all, and good night!

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The growth, it appears, will be in interest rates. 

And before Spring, I should imagine.

I picked up some more TBT today.    Prospective homebuyers may want to think about locking in their rates, should they choose to go the mortgage route.

Gold and silver and many other commodities seem to be indicating we are witnessing yet another inevitable result of the abused dollar.   I think treasuries yields are about to give up the same ghost, no matter what Mr. Bernanke has planned for them…

Forgive me for my peevishness as of late.   I completed a large opus today, the stress from which I am perhaps allowing to leak out from my very pores and upon these pages.  

 Now, I must rest.

My best to you all.

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Yes it is….

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I haven’t a whole lot to add, save that I expect a ripping bounce (at least) if not a further resumption of the dollar bow-out.   We actually came within four cents of hitting $82.50 after hours on the DXY (dollar index) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the 50-day at $83.06 after such a ramp.

That said, The PPT is very deeply oversold and that’s worked as a signal for me for the duration, so I will respect it.   The dollar has already busted into overbought territory on the 5-day RSI stochastic, and even the slow stoch is  catching up after being severely oversold just yesterday.  Expect volatility, but continue to expect dollar death.  It’s already back down to $82.25 this evening.

For tomorrow, in time-honored The PPT tradition, I will be soaking in a mixture of Epsom salts and TNA at the open.   As an after-bath aperitif, I will be enjoying a balsamic vinaigrette and gin reduction of ENTR, which wants higher, despite today’s crazy ride.

Gold is holding steady and so is silver.  Add to long term plays as you see fit.  RBY was even up today, God bless her.

Best to you all.

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Indeuuuuuuuuud, laddie!
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Well, Ole Glory Glory Ben’ll Doo Ya told you what he was going to do today, so the question you have to ask yourself now is : What ahh YOU gonna do aboud it ? (sic)

Don’t be surprised if all kinds of basket-woven skull monkeying comes out of this latest Fed announcement revealing that — sooprise, sooprise! — the wall eyed pirates are not going to shrink their balance sheet back down after all, and they will continue to launder the soiled curtains of debt they’ve been accumulating with the refreshing detergent of icey-Wintergreen mint T-bills.

In other words, have another round of champagne punch, my not so sober friend!

With the dollar as oversold as it still is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some “re-invigouration” (sic) in our sickly green currency given the “all safe” pronouncement we just got from Ben regarding continuing Fed bond buying (doesn’t this just seem so very wrong to you??).   

 In fact, the daily dollar chart is already showing some signs of  coming off the oversold condition:

This brief respite aside, I don’t see the relief rally lasting very long.  One reason is the terrible technical damage we’ve seen in less then two full months.   The 20-day EMA has just today dropped below the 200-day moving average, and one cannot discount the steepness of this recent decline.   The smart money is getting out of the dollar for more dearer territories (you can probably name a few now, no?).

You can see the progression of the dollar decline more clearly on the weekly chart.  Note, we’ve sped to the first three targets to the $80 level, and I think it’s likely we’ll see a bounce back to $82 here before we resume the downward plunge…

The weekly needs to work off some of that oversold condition, and this announcement is likely a good place for the dollar to make one last sham-stand before heading once more to target #4 at $77.00.

Upon leaving your abode, please be sure to wear your especially configured tam-o-shanters with the lead-and-tin linings, in order to stave off any negative emanations from the cloven hooves and knobby horns of Jamie Dimond and the rest of the Fed Owning Banditos. 

We need you to stay strong, and we have our officers out in Manhattan wearing their lids already.  Be apprised and vigilant, as fines will be issued for non-compliance.

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To answer some quick questions, yes, ANV is still a buy.   I would wait on CREE to see how their lower revenue announcement shakes out, but I think they’ll be fine.   I wouldn’t touch JAG with a sixteen-ounce ball peen hammer, no claw.    It looks like it’s going to $5 at the moment, and there’s far better choices out there.

Best to you all.

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