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It’s called work.  I’m back home, and I’ve got tonnes of it.  I shall be out of the office again for three days this week and have all manner of personal and personnel issues to work through.   What’s worse, my right hand man is taking this week off (and deservedly so, as I’ve been working him like a Sherpa in tourist season).

I did have a chance to look through the charts tonight, however,  and I continue to believe two things.   One, this rally will continue, most likely after a slight pause that will either accompany or ensue from a dollar strengthening.   It won’t be much, but enough to continue working out it’s current oversold condition.  

This week would not be the week to add to the TNA (D’Rex Triple Russell), in other words.   It may be a decent week to continue looking at the PM recovery that firmed last week, however.   This is especially true if we’re given a bit of respite with the dollar strengthening.

As the daily AMEX Gold Bug ($HUI) chart show, that rebound off the oversold levels has occurred.  If the cycle continues as it has, we should see at least $490 again, and perhaps even new highs, depending on what the dollar decides.   Here’s the latest in a series:

I would continue to add to strong names that look like they’ve bottomed for this cycle, especially IAG, ANV and EGO in the golds, and SLW and PAAS in the silvers.   RGLD — the royalty banker — is also extremely attractive at these levels.

Feeling adventurous?  Gobble some EXK.   Or gobble some more, in that case.   I can’t tell you how much that stock reminds me of SLW, and even it’s ultimate parent WHT (now known as GG) in the bad old days of the early 2000’s.  I believe it will eventually provide similar rewards.

Someday, you will thank me for nagging you on all this.

Best to you all.

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“Opiate Dreams” 

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Don’t bother listening to any of the bullshit on Bubblevision, or even stuff you read on the latest financial blah blahg.  Unless it’s The PPT, you are wasting your time.

  Rather, you should concentrate on foreign commodity names with strong earnings paths, because the crap dollar is what’s making this thing work right now, and that will be true right through late October, early November.

You may remember, we have an election coming up?

Here’s the deal on the dollar.  It’s hugely oversold right now and very ripe for a bounce.  I think it gets all the way to $85 and maybe more before collapsing again.  Here’s the projection:

If you are in gold and silver, gird your loins.  We could see as low as mid $1100’s on the gold front, as a result of the dollar’s return to $85.   “Que sera,” I says.  “Suck it up,” I says.   We’ve been down this road before and we certainly know it’s ultimate end.   (That’s “up” for you noobs). 

In the meantime, buy some PBR, or some CEDC on any pullbacks– you can’t go wrong betting on Brazilian oil or Polish folks taking to the bottle.  Both are top “furrin picks,” on top of my PM hordes.  Go get ’em.

On the PM horde front, and with regard to a dollar bounce, I may sell some calls.  I will certainly let you know.   Right now, I am sitting, eating samiches, counting coin.

And drinking fine wine and eggsellent ales, of course.   I am still on vacation, after all.

Best to you. 

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If the Market’s not Crashin… Hey! It must be the Mon-ay!
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I haven’t a whole lot for you tonight.   Most of the PM’s held up pretty well today as the dollar shilly shallayed about, dancing the mazurka to a deflationary beat.  I”m especially fond of EGO, IAG and SLW’s  “holding up” action today despite the cannonades from the Depression Era Debutants.  I happen to think ANV is offering a nice dip purchase opportunity here as well.

Save the drama for one’s mama, fellahs… the dollar will tell the tune, and it already is.   Here’s the daily for the “close-up” look at where we are in the cycle:

As you can see, there are some conflicting stochastics here, but if I have to choose a marker, I’ll usually go with Woody’s favourite (sic) — the 5-day RSI.   There’s no clear path here, however, and the situation will resolve itself when we are out of that 20 to 50 day EMA channel referenced above.

The monthly chart on the dollar may offer a bit more direction.   This last looks like an exhaustion candle to me, but then I’m biased.  

Occam’s Razor  tells us, however, that Ben and the CBE boys (not to mentiont the Ministry Of Finance in Nippon) will hit the QE button again in order to save the banks and avert a deflationary vortex.   Why will they save the banks?  Because there will be no second TARP… not in this election cycle.   What other tools have they at their disposal?

Moreover, the Fourth of July is a historically solid up week.  Will this year be different?

You make the call.   I’m heading off on vacation, blythe and fancy free.   Mostly.

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 Here’s the origin of today’s title:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtSDWq6HsJE 450 300]

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Get ye a loverly (sic) tomato or a specially inscribed “collector’s edition” JakeGint mug!

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Oh it’s cascading knife times like these that demand the use of The PPT to weather the hot blades of imminent portfolio cut-pursing!

It should make no manner of matter to you that The PPT‘s inventors are, collectively, an unrepentant Obama Voter from Pizza Island, and a crazed technophile man-child long since nailed-up inside his mother’s basement (by his own mother).

For the love of Ike & Mike and their subsequent Massachusetts nuptials The PPT has been saving lives over these last few weeks–  pulling children from burning buildings, quelling vast hive-swarms of killer bees, applying sun screen to sensitive ear lobes and high foreheads– metaphorically speaking of course.

But of course also metaphorically speaking “And Mooooore!”  

You should go in there (in to The PPT) sometime.   There are people in there offering plum cakes and first born children to the Fly for saving their retirements and their marriages.   You probably think I’m kidding.   I assure you I am not. 

We’ve really got a machine going in there, we lucky few, we sceptered islanders, we England.  

Sometimes, I almost wish Fly’d give Ducati a few days in there, that’s how generous I’m feeling right now.   He’d have to promise to be on his best behavior of course, but who knows what a glimpse of heaven might do?

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For my part, I remain in my bunker of gold whilst molten asteroids rain down from above, leaving gaping wounds in the loamy veldt surrounding my doors of filagree-worked platinum. 

I like gold here because it’s my anchor at $1,242+ and “steady, steady now.”   I know, I know, Jim Rogers says he’s not buying it, and he’d rather buy silver or even palladium.

But what’s quite odd is that Rogers has been saying that same thing since late 2007, when gold was in the low $700’s.   Silver has increased as well since then, but on a much more volatile basis.   So I like gold on days like today, when some of my silver stocks (like SLW and PAAS) were down 4%  while GLD was up a bit in response.

You see, even though I don’t like to trade like a crazed jack-rabbit on meth, I am human like you, and I don’t like to see my portfolio roiled like an upset stomach at Coney Island.

I’ve got too many things going on, you see.   I’m sure most of you do as well.   I am seriously contemplating getting more physical positions here, just to cut down on overall volatility.   Something about that weight that makes one think less about trading, maybe….

In other news, today’s sell-off affords an opportunity to tippy toe in.  The PPT Crystal Ball of Courage tells me it’s time to wade back into the pool very soon, perhaps as soon as mid morning tomorrow.    There are many ripe tomatoes dangling on the vine right now.   Claim them before the clacking begins anew.

My best to you all in the coming days…

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 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjA5faZF1A8 450 300] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjA5faZF1A8 450 300]

(C’mon, you didn’t think I’d let the Koreans have the last word, did you?)

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Two things I want to show tonight.   The first reflects the cumulative power of standing fast in your convictions.   Who knew ENTR would be such a hit?   Well, the Fly did almost $4.50 ago… but maybe we didn’t give it enough attention, and looked away too soon?

I wasn’t one of those, mind you, but that’s because I really enjoyed the thesis of holding on to quality stocks that show a tinge of “venture capital” action — that is — the big game hunt.    I am an Elephant Hunter, not in the sense of Glenn Greenwald or the New York Times going after the GOP, but in the sense of seeking large wins that I will stalk for many months before making my move.   ENTR is one of those, and as you can see, it’s today, after much weeping and gnashing,  almost three times higher (200+%) than when the Fly was recc’ing it originally at below $2.25.   Note the chart I put together many moons ago, and where we are now–

The power of patience is an awesome one to yield.   As Jesse said… sometimes it’s best to just sit on one’s hands…

Which brings me to our next guest, the vaunted “triple top” formation of  doom seemingly forming in the sainted gold bug index — $HUI.   Is this the end, or does it just warrant more patience?

You already know my answer to that question….

Best to you all, PM friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRWU2DysF30 450 300]

Showing this to the kids next time they don’t want to practice piano….

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I spoke to some of you on Fly’s blog the other day about how I’d had a conversation with a couple of traders whom I respect greatly, and whose collective net worths range into the billions.  They were/are considering moving their capital to some less confiscatory climes if the current regimes remain in power past November of 2010.   They said this bluntly and with little rancor.   The conversation, in fact, was for the most part calm and matter-of-fact.  A sense of resignation permeated the meeting.

“It is what it is” seemed the pre-dominant theme.

Many times I’ve said on this site that “capital is mobile.”   That phrase should be embossed in gold bas relief a top both Congressional Speaker’s podiums in both the House and Senate.   It’s a phrase all governments should take to heart, but ours most specifically because our success today as a global Colossus (dare I say “Atlas?” lol!) is due to the flight of both specie and intellectual capital to our shores.

What I mean is that governments unfriendly to capital, be they in Cuba, the Soviet Union, France, and for a time (ironically) Mainland China and India forced intellectual and physical capital off-shore into the arms of nations more friendly to its use and protection.   The most hallowed place, up until recently, was in our own  U.S.capital markets system.

Forget about “your tired and poor” — America became great on the backs of your innovative and rich, Asia and Europe.   Sorry, that’s just the way it’s been.   Thank our Constitution and integral respect for property rights for those wins.

The question each of us must ask, however, is can that win streak continue?  If the hard fought aspects of U.S. exceptionalism (not my term, but there it is) are gradually worn away, and we end up looking like just another 50% government oriented European state, will entrepreneurs, innovators and capital investors continue to be interested in our ability to create wealth?  Will that ability even remain a core competency in the 21st century?

Hard questions.   In the mean time, U.S. Congressmen dumber than even their mulish appearance would convey, are calling for the “freeing” of the Chinese currency.   This would be a disastrous turn of events, not just for us but for the Chinese themselves, who depend upon the artificial cheapness of their goods to feed the American consumer maw and thereby continue their growth in productivity and efficiency.   Break that equilibrium and the Chinese will suffer — temporarily… as they move from a Third to a First World country and begin becoming emboldened consumers in their own right.   Such an evolution for China — like post-war Japan’s — is all but inevitable.

As a result, the U.S. will be shorn not only of its cheap goods, but of its single most important financier — the Chinese Central Bank, who has been sterilizing our crap paper for years.   Soon that subsidization will end, and we will have to face the reality of our over-spending.   That day of reckoning will come all the sooner if we force the Chinese hand, as so many critically stupid Congressmen are now attempting to do.

The play this week (surprise, surprise) is the precious.   I bought another 2k of AGQ on Friday, and tried to add 2k more SLW, but I was busy that day and only got to call in the trade to my broker.   Unfortunately, I noted this evening there is no additional SLW in my account, so I will have to administer 40 lashes tomorrow morning to aforesaid sloth-like attendant.    My kingdom for competence!

Sigh.  

All the silvers and golds look good right now, but none more than my favourite (sic) gold ANV, which seems to be going to the stratos.    I continue to like EGO and also RGLD, especially after the recent Goldman capital raise.

Best to you all, and watch out for those rem-nem-bee’s.   They sting when aggravated.

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