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Despite my adopted team, the Green Collar Jets, winning an improbable playoff victory over the hard-to-like Tom Brady Patriots this weekend, I am in full choler right now, due to the exigencies of hardware failure. I’m downstairs posting from the kids’ computer tonight because my trusty Sony Vaio has gone “Vaio (sic) con Dios!” on me, and seems to have left the station for that great electronic synapse farm in the Sky. I guess that last trip out to California was just too much for it.

Suggestions are welcome, as long as you do not recommend I purchase a Craapl.  I have no interest in seeking out a new career in fashion and design, thanks very much.

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I expect many of you — my more loyal readers — are already in the bunker due to my ample warnings over these last two weeks.   Many of you, however, resemble the man at the top of the page, and love The Funnel so much that you’ve fashioned special Funnel Hats to celebrate itscoming, and your imminent dive down it’s narrowing throat structure.

Well, the original man with no heart —Steve Jobs — just declared he was going on another Health Holiday, most likely so he can rendevous with the Mother Ship and pick up the next space alien technological doo-dad for Craapl, and therefore kick Bill Gates’ & Steve Ballmar’s asses with greater alacrity.  That also means the market is now free to sell off with great vim and vinegar.

Got your QID yet?  I’ve only put half of mine on, as planned.  I think tomorrow might be the day for the rest, however.

Meanwhile, back at the old gold mill, I have sold down to a comfortable level, and I continue to believe we will see a pull back in the 10-15% range off the recent highs.  That could easily bring us to $1,300 or less on the POG, and we all know silver likes to make gold’s price moves look kittenish in comparison.   As a result, I have even purchased some ZSL to warm the bed I’ve made for myself.   You should consider trimming your EXK and SLW and PAAS, for sure, and please get out completely from the AGQ, before you hurt yourselves.

What’s that rumbling you hear from my garage?  Why yes, it does happen to be my 12-cylinder dual cammy (I have no idea what the means) slung back black coupe FAZ-mobile idling in the drive.   I haven’t taken it out for a spin yet, but I will be eyeing the BKX with great interest, JPM “grande” earnings aside.    Heck I may even break out a bowl of Skiffles for my morning repast tomorrow. 

It’s been a while hasn’t it?   And yet, somehow… it just feels right.   

Remember the plan, now Funnelites.  The plan is to have cash to invest in this PM bull for the long run into dollar implosion.   That emphatically does not mean you play “long-only” for the duration.   You should have a core in store, but right now is not the time to be a hero.   Take a break, take a vacation, or better yet, move to North Carolina.   No need to make life any more stressful than it already is.

Best to you all.

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Man,  I hate days like this.  Even when I hedge my portfolio and sell down to my core holdings, I hate to see my beautiful PM’s get whacked like a homicidal Joe Pesci character in a typical Scorsese mafia flick.

But this is the world we live in when we choose to invest in the biggest bull in the last ten years.  All we can do is strap ourselves to the mast, make sure our cargo is well stowed (in hideous questionably weurthy (sic) cash), and ride out the 60-foot waves.  Right now, the beauty of beauties — SLW — is getting cranked like a Model A Ford with battery troubles.  Did you sell down to your core?  Do you have hedges in place? 

Still hurts, doesn’t it?  Well, going forth all guns and vinegar butter hurts even more.  So get hedged, now.

Today, I actually got some short ETF’s.   I purchased QID, SDD, and SDS — half positions in each.  I expect I will add more.  I also picked up several thousand shares of ZSL.   

I’m off from the West Coast… will patch back in tonight.

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I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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I’ve got an extremely busy week ahead of me, so while I will attempt to log in as much as I can, I don’t expect I shall be my usual garrulous self.   I’m traveling out to Southern Bustopia on the West Coast, and I hope to be safely wheels down before the airport bonds go teats up, and the baggage handlers start throwing Molatav cocktails at the TSA while storming the control tower.

I expect I may end up having to be Hummer’d out — a la “Mad Max: The Road Warrior” — so I’ll be bringing several ingots of .999 silver to pay for the petrol and extra ammunition.

As far as that goes, this week may be a good week to trade some silver in for consumer goods like eye black and B.A.R. rounds, if you are so inclined.  A nice plow and a brace of oxen wouldn’t hurt to hold in reserve either, if you’re agriculturally minded.   You see, with regard to precious metals, I think we may see a dollar respite here, so I sold another 10k of EXK on Friday, bringing my position down to about 30% of my original peak.

I also divested myself of some IAG, some GSS, some CDE, a touch more SLW,  half of my PAAS, and about 30% of my ANV, with the remainder of those both being hedged, along with hedging most of the rest of the portfolio I didn’t choose to sell.   I now have egregious amounts of cash with which to buy what I believe will be a forthcoming dip in the precious markets that I believe we’ve been holding out for since early December.

I may be wrong, and if I am the first thing I will be purchasing is AGQ.   I will certainly let you know.

God bless you all, this night and always.

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And Yes, Rex Grossman Was Screwed, Too
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Didn’t take long for the first of my semi-facetious predictions to fail did it?  Well it did, and my Giants, despite winning today over a semi-revitalied Rex Grossman-led Redskin team, were drubbed out of the playoffs by the Green Bay Fudge Packers, who beat them this week and dah Bears (see above) today.

There’s nothing like just missing the playoffs to make for the worst of all possible worlds.   Despite a 10-6 record, my team will be on the sofa next weekend, and — adding insult to injury — will likely keep the Angry Leprechaun, Tom Coughlin and his offensive (in the literal sense) coordinator, Captain Kangaroo Kevin Gilbride in the driver’s seat for at least another year.   The final coup de grace — we’ll get a crappy “playoff level” draft pick because there will be playoff teams that have worse records picking behind us. 

I guess I will become a Jet fan for the few short weeks for it to take them to snuffed out by Eli’s older brother or some similar such ignonimy.  Gosh knows there’s no one in the NFC honorable enough to root for, and I am beginning to really despise the Packers, I’ll have you know.

But never as much as Dawg Killah and the Eagles, no fear.

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As for me, I ended the year up a gigantaload.  So much so, compared to year end 2009, that you’d probably not even believe me, so I won’t boast about it.  Suffice it to say that I was still piling on win in huge amounts even on the last day of the year, despite being about 40% hedged and having about 30% in cash.   Ironically, my largest single gain on December 31st was Monsieur’s FTK, which I do believe I shall keep for a while, ovah heah.

I also believe AVL — the old Avalon Metals now on the Amex Exchange — will continue to shine it’s bizarre functional-if-rare metallic lights on my precious laden portfolio.   I will have more to say on the rare earths as we move forward– I am digging diligently as you read this…

Without question silver will continue to shine, and SLW, PAAS, SSRI, MVG, SVM, CDE, HL, and yes EXK will continue to shine.   I will let you know when I will begin piling in on a leveraged basis soon enough.  I think the dollar remains on the edge of the knife (it is rallying as I type this), but until it breaks, I will remain positioned as I am.

We will also look into the ags, and I think it is time to re-recognize the farmer Jacksonians — ANDE and MON again, as strong picks going forward.  TC and TCK, the molybdenum brothers, should also perform here.

I haven’t posted the Jacksons as of late, but if you were to have held them since this blog’s inception (May 1st, 2009), you’d be up 125% right now, and that’s with a negative return on both MON and TBT, both of which I urge you to continue to accumulate this year.  

Stick with me kid, we are going places in 2011….

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This end of the year is something else, no? You can feel the bull flows as they pulse through the market, and yet, they are driven much like all else, by the destruction of the dollar.

A destruction that is — seemingly — ahead even of my own most draconian schedule.  But I must have proof, I must have evidence before I send my portfolio over the cliff of hard asset liquidity.

Some of this action seems just a bit too pat for my tastes, and I am most assuredly nervous, and buttering my rye bread three times before slapping my slices together with fresh arugula, holland tomatoes, and thinly sliced roast mutton.  I will eat many samiches before making a definitive move.

I note that the dollar is sliding off a cliff again, and gold is heading to new highs whilst silver has already achieved them ($30.77 as of this sitting).

Yet the $HUI (my favored “Gold Bug Index“), and more important, my silver stocks still lag their early ecember highs. True PAAS is acting a champion and EXK is inching towards old highs (though selling off this afternoon).  SLW, too, is not close to $42, and this gives me pause.

I have decided to leave it up to the dollar, and these two charts (weekly and daily, respectively) will give you all the information you need.   The lines of resistance on the weekly are quite clear, and brought to you by Signorelli Fibonacci himself.   These weekly fibs tend to hold up quite well, which doesn’t bode happy news for our greenback:

Like the 200 week EMA in the above weekly chart, the daily provides us with an adequate signal — the 50 day EMA — which should prove conclusive given the already oversold condition in the daily:

  

 If we get a rebound, I will hold onto my hedges on my PM positions.   If we see further declines — and especially through these resistance levels — I shall be taking them off, and most likely piling back in aggressively.

That is all, really.

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