[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

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The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

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Cocktail Party Acts of Levitation Aside, You Suck

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… So this won’t be long.

My damn Junkees left 423 guys on base tonight, mostly because they just didn’t feel like running them very hard.  They weren’t very stellar in the field, either, despite being at home.

Oh yeah, and I really, really dislike A-Roid.

I don’t care how damn good he is in the regular season, the guy is a choker.  Plain and simple.  You gotta perform on the big stage, Gayroid, or you’re nothing to me.  Your 600 home runs mean so much cow shit.  Go screw.

You suck.

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There, that is that.   As for today, I’m disappointed about that too.

You see I tried to get cute.  I went and bot 10k shares of EXK and 8k shares of AG at middle of the day prices.   Then I doubled my order at a substantial discount to my market order.   I did the same for AVL.   I got zero AVL as a result and not filled on my second half of the other two.  I have a feeling that will cost me in the morning.

Meanwhile, I kept my QLD and the GDX and GDXJ that I bought yesterday.

That is all.   I leave you now, grumbling into the night.

Go (NY Football) Giants.

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Addenda:  I’m pretty damn disappointed in this guy too (hat tip to DGM) :

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfMjbS0oWrE 450 300]

(If you squint, he looks like Arod)

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Fast Winning a Place in Jake’s Heart

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…And bloody and exhausted.  I just did a lot of driving on some client work and it’s been a rough couple of days. The meetings were far afield and I had to sleep in a Brady Bunch-era Courtyard by Marriott last night. The hotel clark (sic) looked like he could have been the Crypt Keeper’s younger brother, sans the warm and vivacious personality.

What’s more on the way back I passed the time rocking to a zillion 30 year old Sirius satellite tunes (First Wave with the Swedish Eagle) while trying to peruse the various iBC posts of interest on my B’berry. I know, “safe as houses” right?

Not so safe, however, when you come across the post remarking how French population call Le Monsieur “L’Envincible Le Fly.”
I almost rolled into a passing semi after I’d seen that one.

Anyway, my “all day business” today forced me to put a stop on my AGQ position early this morning. To my chagrin, that stop was hit.  Now I’ll never be able to introduce my children and grandchildren to my horde of “double stuff” silver paper.  Ah well, comme ce, comme sa.

I have stops in on other mining positions as well, but only NGD’s was hit today.    Last, I doubled the size of the TZA position I put on last night and added another 2k of Skiffles to my horde.   Both positions were up huge today, as you might imagine.   I wish I could say the same for my remaining benighted silver and gold miners.

Tomorrow I’ll be back in and better able to monitor the situation, but make no mistake, I am increasingly bearish here…  That should be good for a nice counter rally about 11:00 am tomorrow.   Stay tuned,  and don’t hock your hoop earrings and tongue bolts just yet.

Best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dzpTFQR0Tg&feature=related 450 300]

Whatever happened to gay rap anyway?

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Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…

Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn.  True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action.  Note:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs.   This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here.   On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch.  I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL.   I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.

Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc.  Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.

As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction.   Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

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I don’t know what’s going on, but it appears we’re about to be overrun by Viagra-popping leprechauns.   I’ve been buying some stuff back in drips and drabs but have been mostly waiting.  I added AUQ today and bought some more IPSU too. Both of those seem to be working well.  Meanwhile all the stuff I sold last week is doing aerobatics.  That’s annoying.

This is why we keep the core of course.  We don’t know what the bull is going to do… especially at these end stages.

I looked over all my charts tonight and there are quite a few looking like imminent breakouts.  These include AG, ANV, AUY, EXK and even — strangely — goofy old BAA.   Even GDX and GDXJ look pretty good, if you are into the ETF thing.   It’s our old friend the gold bug index $HUI that will provide the signal for me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of those names in the chart above should break out with the $HUI index here, but I wouldn’t worry about having to pile in.   There should be pullbacks on all of them after the breakouts, so you should have ample opportunity, if you want to be cautious.

Besides the above, RGLD and NGD are rather stretched here, and I will be offloading some likely tomorrow on any $HUI break.

Best to you all, and watch out for midgets with orange hair, green vests and knotty chestnut shilelaghs.  Those fuggers will wield those beatin’ sticks.

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