Pass the Cheeb

______________________________
I’m sitting here in my bunker having given up all hope for the country. Pass the cheeba. Pass the wine. Pass the Ritz crackers. We’ll be here a while, so relax a bit.

I must admit I’m amazed at the resiliency of humanity.  I’m amazed at the tendency for things to right themselves through natural and perhaps quasi-divine processes.  I guess, like physics, economics have laws that cannot be contravened, though perhaps they can be more easily bent for a period.  We can rest assured, however, that like gravity’s effect on a rubber ball bounced off the tarmac, we are assured of a rebound by nature.

One true economic law is you will get what you incentivize, if you will forgive me that vulgar neologism.  When this country was formed it was a haven for the oppressed and those seeking a new start, true.  But it was also an immediate draw for those whose nature tended towards the burlesque, the hustle, and even the long con.  The rule of law was late to the game and sometimes absent, so those who survived even in the great cities of the 18th and 19th centuries did so on wit, courage and often times some manner of guile.  That formative chemistry served us well for almost 150 years and provided us not only with the capital, but the innovative drive to subdue the wilderness and become traders on a scale never before seen in history.  Our frontier justice and hustler’s creed, in a sense, turned a soup of opportunity into a civilization whose standard of living surpassed those of the wealthiest Romans and Turks at the apex of Empire.  All of that success a result of incentivized behavior.

After less than 150 years, we turned to the Age of Statism.   It is no modern age, of course but rather one visited and revisited by mankind numerous times over the course of his recorded history, and now so again in America.  The draw of Statism reflects man’s nature — his desire to consolidate power and impose his will upon the many.  Dressed as chivalry and noblesse oblige prior to the Enlightenment, this will to control comes dressed in similar patronizing robes today — first for your children and later ensuring your eternal childhood.

 

The statist door, cracked by Wilson, thrown open by FDR and later Johnson and Nixon, is now blown off it’s hinges by Obama and his club of cronies.  The Constitution, once the citzenry’s protection against such thuggery, now lies in tatters, largely ignored if not openly mocked.  Where our originating culture had once incented hard work and innovation, our new state insinuated the easy out of the dole and the forgiving excuse of eternal victim-hood.  Corruption became not some invasive element to be combatted, but a necessary institutional tool as it has been for centuries in lesser governments the world over.

What lies ahead for us, amidst the foundering bread and circuses, as the microcosms of statist corruption– the Detroits, Chicagos,  and San Bernadinos — silently implode under the weight of their diseconomic burdens?

Are these municipalities harbingers of a greater collective future?

Will the country split?

Or will we reform under a renewed interest in localized solutions and community building?

I can only hope for the latter as  I prepare to cope with an increasingly sclerotic and burdensome, top-down authoritarian system that will be punctuated by misery, increasing poverty and failing infrastructure.  Compound interest can be a terrible thing when arrayed against your interests.  And that interest is coming due, one way or another my friends.

_______________________________________

Ben said he wasn’t going to allay his QE moves today.  “Surprise Suprise!” as Gomer Pyle was wont to say.   Apparently, Ben is prepared to go out with a bang.  Let’s hope it’s smaller than the Big Bang, eh? Concentrate on the high quality stuff for now.  I was buying more AEM, RGLD and SLW today.  Everything else will be increasingly risky, so you may want to just stick with the ETF’s.  If you buy NUGT, make sure you have a call selling plan firmly in place.  Same goes for AGQ.  Best to you all.

_______________

Damned Rookie Mistake (Have a Nugget Anyway)

Nuggetear

_________________

Aw geez, I just had an extremely clever and full of info blog post to make up for my long absence.  In it, I went over the weather conundrum, my summer exploits, the state of our miserable economy as guided by the clown show in Washington, etc. etc.

But like a dumbass, when I went to insert my graphic, I inadvertently went “away” from the site and lost the whole fucking caboose.  Goshdamnitalltohell. Fuck me.

My apologies, I’ll try to summarize.

One, I’ve been buying NUGT for five weeks to various painful degrees of success.

Two, the 120-month exponential moving average on the dollar ($USD for you Stockcharts buds) was breached for the first time in a decade in late 2002, leading to our glorious metals revolution.  Since then, the dollar has bumped but not pierced that line on a monthly basis FOUR TIMES since that initial drop, all of those time led to sad days upon the ascending attempt (the saddest effort ending the first time in February of 2009) and happy, glorious days upon the subsequent failures (remember March 2009 friends?), at least for we PM fans.

Three, the last attempt lasted THREE PLUS MONTHS, from March to June.  We are now enjoying another rapid descent.  If we turn back up again here, on the dollar, I can probably tell you the PM bull is dead.  If not, we are headed to Nirvana once again, sans the blown out brains of the lead singer, etc.

Here’s the thing, don’t buy NUGT tomorrow, as it will probably pull back on a test of $1350.  However, if we breach that level like “butter” with no pullback, be prepared to get aggressive.  In the meantime, we might get a present from SLW‘s “miss” tonight.  AG, EXK and SLW are nascent monsters once again.

All that said, you should also have TBT, as the bonds are beginning their own slow motion train wreck, courtesy of the Bernanke-Obama Hubris Nexus.

Be well.  I appreciate you all.

_______________________________________

 

 

 

Auditioning for the Sopranos

vito

__________________

…. the hard way!

Let me caveat what I am implying here by saying first that I fully expect the commodity price of gold to test the late 2011 lows of $1523, and perhaps even undercut them to really get the blood flowing.  I am prepared for that, as I realize the run to $1900 — much like the run to $49 in silver, was too far and too fast, even in a fiat printing, race to the bottom, currency bubble.  But with the $Gold:$HUI index approaching 2008 crisis highs, and the $Gold:$XAU index now reaching an unprecedented height, I am copacetic about holding what I have while becoming poised for a final shake out where I can harvest some of my favorite names once again.

Opportunities abound in high quality names, some of which offer dividends while one waits (I’ve already added AEM, as you know).  There’s no need to stretch on speculation, now, and look for any miners doing business outside the safe zones of Canada and the U.S. and Mexico for some silver plays.  RGLD at these prices is insane, and if you are worried about this pullback, please review that company’s past charts over the last ten years.  All of these stocks — yes, even the quality ones like SLW and AUY — have trod this rocky path before.   In my opinion, these, along with their underlying commodities, preferably held in part in the physical bullion, will help you weather the coming storm in collective currency crisis.

If however, you believe that Ben Bernanke can be the first Federal Reserve Chief to successfully inflate the economy out of a low growth, value inhibiting recession, then perhaps your trust in this new bull is warranted.  In my business, and in the entire economy, I see inflated prices for everything already, so the valuations of the stock market come as no surprise.   As we approach major all time highs in the SPX, I am increasingly skeptical that we can continue without a major correction, just as I was in late 2007-2008, when we saw similar overwrought behavior.  I may miss the final euphoric highs, as I did last time, but I will not end up like the Capo Vito, either.

To be sure, I am not telling you to buy these miners at this bloody juncture.  Even I am holding off for the turn, as I mentioned a few times over the last month.  But I would also counsel you not to short a bull, no matter how wounded.   Bulls are mighty, long lived beasts, and despite their weariness, can leave one singing soprano with little to no advance warning.

Best to you all.

___________________________________

Were You Patient?

MonoOcto
___________________________________________________

The Signs were out there, that’s for certain. They glow more balefully–frighteningly, perhaps – by the day.  Soon you will find that their light will transform into warmth, and voila! — you are out of the cold.  This week we saw the $HUI:$Gold ratio approach it’s late 2008 nadir, despite the lack of any similar shade of trouble in the SPY or any other major index for that matter.  For many who have been suffering through this mind searing mini-bear in the miners, it was only one more pencil in the vile jellies.  For me, it was the light at the end of the tunnel.

Adding reassurance were the hairshirt boys and the plungers.  The hairshirt boys talked about “$21 dollar silver” and gold “heading back to $1200″ this week.  More music to my ears.  Then the dear plungers.  Those who can always be counted on to ring the bell at the exact wrong time were actually starting to short stocks that had been pummelled for months now, quality be damned.   Again, the scent of ambrosia, the ply of relief. 

Can anyone predict the future?  Only in Tom Hanks movies involving haunted vending machines, my friend.  But there are time tested truths for all markets, and for the precious metal markets especially.   Perhaps the hardest and truest is that both the bulls and the bears will suprise the hell out of you in this space.  Such is the lot of a smaller capitalized, politically sensitive commodity group not exactly known for it’s GE-like management style.  But an ancillary truth resides in the recovery from both a bull and a bear… namely, the harder the band is pulled either up or down, the greater the snap back to the up or downside.

Recently we’ve seen near-unprecedented disintermediation between the price of the miners and their underlying commodity in both gold and silver.  Some of this is a result of input (cost) prices rising while commodity prices are remaining stagnant or falling off.  Some is the result of rational hedging, and some the result of anticipatory momentum trading.  It’s this last that has brought us to our most recent state, where one might say the blood in the streets approaches the door-level on our three-step brownstones.

But make no mistake, things are not going to be “different this time.”  We’ve seen this all before, and the results have been similarly spectacular.   We may have one more final “terrier shake” to throw the last remaining weak hands off the bus, but I have little doubt that the Fidelitys, the Blackrocks and the other large funds are right now gobbling up even more SLW and RGLD and AEM and AUY than they were last quarter.   And AG…. oh my yes, AG.

I expect one more pullback today and perhaps into early next week, but I will initiate buys in AEM at any price under $40, if I am so lucky.  Get yourself a dividend while you enjoy the rebound, why don’t you?  You can always use the extra beer money, no?

As for our friends in the smaller silver market, I would think next week the safer bet, but if we see some pullback today, I wouldn’t gainsay your taking some risk.  After all, for EXK to get back to a mere $7.00 (!!) is an almost 21% move from here.  EXK will be $10 before next Christmas, if my predictions weigh out properly.

Best to you all.  

 

 

A Considerable Sum on Silver, Please

first job

_______________________

Sorry I haven’t been around to keep company.  I’m being kept by many companies.   At first glance, if you look at my favorite universe, it seems like it’s hand holding time.  However, I’ve looked over my long term charts tonight and I can’t believe how cheap some of these miners are trading right now.  SLW has held up reasonably well, but AG and EXK are Christmas presents here.  Get them for your kids.  RGLD continues to take hits, but mein gott it’s tasty here.  I like AUY and even BAA, as well.

I held off the whole month of January, and did not spend any “year end funds.”  That changes tomorrow.  I’m getting more of “all of the above,” but will keep some dry powder for further Crazy Eddie liquidation sales.  Everyone is printing folks.  Every one is racing to the bottom.  If you think that will hurt the precious, you need to have a look at how much Blackrock and Fidelity own of RGLD, and how much they’ve accumulated recently.  If you think they are the dumb money, well… God bless.

Best to you all.

_________________

The Tide Shall Rise

Tide
_________________________________

And you can bet your ass it will be Crimson.

In the meantime, ANV is hitting it’s 200 week EMA and it looks primed for a bounce to at least $30, as do many in the precious sector.  Oversold like a mothahfathah.  Also, the Russell’s (2k and 3k, in fact, all except Smith) look good here and so do the Trannies (UPS!), but I do not trust the NAZTY NAZ, nor the BKX.  Stay away from tech and financials, at least until there’s clarity.

Best to you all, humans.

________________

_________________

Pass the Cheeb

______________________________
I’m sitting here in my bunker having given up all hope for the country. Pass the cheeba. Pass the wine. Pass the Ritz crackers. We’ll be here a while, so relax a bit.

I must admit I’m amazed at the resiliency of humanity.  I’m amazed at the tendency for things to right themselves through natural and perhaps quasi-divine processes.  I guess, like physics, economics have laws that cannot be contravened, though perhaps they can be more easily bent for a period.  We can rest assured, however, that like gravity’s effect on a rubber ball bounced off the tarmac, we are assured of a rebound by nature.

One true economic law is you will get what you incentivize, if you will forgive me that vulgar neologism.  When this country was formed it was a haven for the oppressed and those seeking a new start, true.  But it was also an immediate draw for those whose nature tended towards the burlesque, the hustle, and even the long con.  The rule of law was late to the game and sometimes absent, so those who survived even in the great cities of the 18th and 19th centuries did so on wit, courage and often times some manner of guile.  That formative chemistry served us well for almost 150 years and provided us not only with the capital, but the innovative drive to subdue the wilderness and become traders on a scale never before seen in history.  Our frontier justice and hustler’s creed, in a sense, turned a soup of opportunity into a civilization whose standard of living surpassed those of the wealthiest Romans and Turks at the apex of Empire.  All of that success a result of incentivized behavior.

After less than 150 years, we turned to the Age of Statism.   It is no modern age, of course but rather one visited and revisited by mankind numerous times over the course of his recorded history, and now so again in America.  The draw of Statism reflects man’s nature — his desire to consolidate power and impose his will upon the many.  Dressed as chivalry and noblesse oblige prior to the Enlightenment, this will to control comes dressed in similar patronizing robes today — first for your children and later ensuring your eternal childhood.

 

The statist door, cracked by Wilson, thrown open by FDR and later Johnson and Nixon, is now blown off it’s hinges by Obama and his club of cronies.  The Constitution, once the citzenry’s protection against such thuggery, now lies in tatters, largely ignored if not openly mocked.  Where our originating culture had once incented hard work and innovation, our new state insinuated the easy out of the dole and the forgiving excuse of eternal victim-hood.  Corruption became not some invasive element to be combatted, but a necessary institutional tool as it has been for centuries in lesser governments the world over.

What lies ahead for us, amidst the foundering bread and circuses, as the microcosms of statist corruption– the Detroits, Chicagos,  and San Bernadinos — silently implode under the weight of their diseconomic burdens?

Are these municipalities harbingers of a greater collective future?

Will the country split?

Or will we reform under a renewed interest in localized solutions and community building?

I can only hope for the latter as  I prepare to cope with an increasingly sclerotic and burdensome, top-down authoritarian system that will be punctuated by misery, increasing poverty and failing infrastructure.  Compound interest can be a terrible thing when arrayed against your interests.  And that interest is coming due, one way or another my friends.

_______________________________________

Ben said he wasn’t going to allay his QE moves today.  “Surprise Suprise!” as Gomer Pyle was wont to say.   Apparently, Ben is prepared to go out with a bang.  Let’s hope it’s smaller than the Big Bang, eh? Concentrate on the high quality stuff for now.  I was buying more AEM, RGLD and SLW today.  Everything else will be increasingly risky, so you may want to just stick with the ETF’s.  If you buy NUGT, make sure you have a call selling plan firmly in place.  Same goes for AGQ.  Best to you all.

_______________

Damned Rookie Mistake (Have a Nugget Anyway)

Nuggetear

_________________

Aw geez, I just had an extremely clever and full of info blog post to make up for my long absence.  In it, I went over the weather conundrum, my summer exploits, the state of our miserable economy as guided by the clown show in Washington, etc. etc.

But like a dumbass, when I went to insert my graphic, I inadvertently went “away” from the site and lost the whole fucking caboose.  Goshdamnitalltohell. Fuck me.

My apologies, I’ll try to summarize.

One, I’ve been buying NUGT for five weeks to various painful degrees of success.

Two, the 120-month exponential moving average on the dollar ($USD for you Stockcharts buds) was breached for the first time in a decade in late 2002, leading to our glorious metals revolution.  Since then, the dollar has bumped but not pierced that line on a monthly basis FOUR TIMES since that initial drop, all of those time led to sad days upon the ascending attempt (the saddest effort ending the first time in February of 2009) and happy, glorious days upon the subsequent failures (remember March 2009 friends?), at least for we PM fans.

Three, the last attempt lasted THREE PLUS MONTHS, from March to June.  We are now enjoying another rapid descent.  If we turn back up again here, on the dollar, I can probably tell you the PM bull is dead.  If not, we are headed to Nirvana once again, sans the blown out brains of the lead singer, etc.

Here’s the thing, don’t buy NUGT tomorrow, as it will probably pull back on a test of $1350.  However, if we breach that level like “butter” with no pullback, be prepared to get aggressive.  In the meantime, we might get a present from SLW‘s “miss” tonight.  AG, EXK and SLW are nascent monsters once again.

All that said, you should also have TBT, as the bonds are beginning their own slow motion train wreck, courtesy of the Bernanke-Obama Hubris Nexus.

Be well.  I appreciate you all.

_______________________________________

 

 

 

Auditioning for the Sopranos

vito

__________________

…. the hard way!

Let me caveat what I am implying here by saying first that I fully expect the commodity price of gold to test the late 2011 lows of $1523, and perhaps even undercut them to really get the blood flowing.  I am prepared for that, as I realize the run to $1900 — much like the run to $49 in silver, was too far and too fast, even in a fiat printing, race to the bottom, currency bubble.  But with the $Gold:$HUI index approaching 2008 crisis highs, and the $Gold:$XAU index now reaching an unprecedented height, I am copacetic about holding what I have while becoming poised for a final shake out where I can harvest some of my favorite names once again.

Opportunities abound in high quality names, some of which offer dividends while one waits (I’ve already added AEM, as you know).  There’s no need to stretch on speculation, now, and look for any miners doing business outside the safe zones of Canada and the U.S. and Mexico for some silver plays.  RGLD at these prices is insane, and if you are worried about this pullback, please review that company’s past charts over the last ten years.  All of these stocks — yes, even the quality ones like SLW and AUY — have trod this rocky path before.   In my opinion, these, along with their underlying commodities, preferably held in part in the physical bullion, will help you weather the coming storm in collective currency crisis.

If however, you believe that Ben Bernanke can be the first Federal Reserve Chief to successfully inflate the economy out of a low growth, value inhibiting recession, then perhaps your trust in this new bull is warranted.  In my business, and in the entire economy, I see inflated prices for everything already, so the valuations of the stock market come as no surprise.   As we approach major all time highs in the SPX, I am increasingly skeptical that we can continue without a major correction, just as I was in late 2007-2008, when we saw similar overwrought behavior.  I may miss the final euphoric highs, as I did last time, but I will not end up like the Capo Vito, either.

To be sure, I am not telling you to buy these miners at this bloody juncture.  Even I am holding off for the turn, as I mentioned a few times over the last month.  But I would also counsel you not to short a bull, no matter how wounded.   Bulls are mighty, long lived beasts, and despite their weariness, can leave one singing soprano with little to no advance warning.

Best to you all.

___________________________________

Were You Patient?

MonoOcto
___________________________________________________

The Signs were out there, that’s for certain. They glow more balefully–frighteningly, perhaps – by the day.  Soon you will find that their light will transform into warmth, and voila! — you are out of the cold.  This week we saw the $HUI:$Gold ratio approach it’s late 2008 nadir, despite the lack of any similar shade of trouble in the SPY or any other major index for that matter.  For many who have been suffering through this mind searing mini-bear in the miners, it was only one more pencil in the vile jellies.  For me, it was the light at the end of the tunnel.

Adding reassurance were the hairshirt boys and the plungers.  The hairshirt boys talked about “$21 dollar silver” and gold “heading back to $1200″ this week.  More music to my ears.  Then the dear plungers.  Those who can always be counted on to ring the bell at the exact wrong time were actually starting to short stocks that had been pummelled for months now, quality be damned.   Again, the scent of ambrosia, the ply of relief. 

Can anyone predict the future?  Only in Tom Hanks movies involving haunted vending machines, my friend.  But there are time tested truths for all markets, and for the precious metal markets especially.   Perhaps the hardest and truest is that both the bulls and the bears will suprise the hell out of you in this space.  Such is the lot of a smaller capitalized, politically sensitive commodity group not exactly known for it’s GE-like management style.  But an ancillary truth resides in the recovery from both a bull and a bear… namely, the harder the band is pulled either up or down, the greater the snap back to the up or downside.

Recently we’ve seen near-unprecedented disintermediation between the price of the miners and their underlying commodity in both gold and silver.  Some of this is a result of input (cost) prices rising while commodity prices are remaining stagnant or falling off.  Some is the result of rational hedging, and some the result of anticipatory momentum trading.  It’s this last that has brought us to our most recent state, where one might say the blood in the streets approaches the door-level on our three-step brownstones.

But make no mistake, things are not going to be “different this time.”  We’ve seen this all before, and the results have been similarly spectacular.   We may have one more final “terrier shake” to throw the last remaining weak hands off the bus, but I have little doubt that the Fidelitys, the Blackrocks and the other large funds are right now gobbling up even more SLW and RGLD and AEM and AUY than they were last quarter.   And AG…. oh my yes, AG.

I expect one more pullback today and perhaps into early next week, but I will initiate buys in AEM at any price under $40, if I am so lucky.  Get yourself a dividend while you enjoy the rebound, why don’t you?  You can always use the extra beer money, no?

As for our friends in the smaller silver market, I would think next week the safer bet, but if we see some pullback today, I wouldn’t gainsay your taking some risk.  After all, for EXK to get back to a mere $7.00 (!!) is an almost 21% move from here.  EXK will be $10 before next Christmas, if my predictions weigh out properly.

Best to you all.  

 

 

A Considerable Sum on Silver, Please

first job

_______________________

Sorry I haven’t been around to keep company.  I’m being kept by many companies.   At first glance, if you look at my favorite universe, it seems like it’s hand holding time.  However, I’ve looked over my long term charts tonight and I can’t believe how cheap some of these miners are trading right now.  SLW has held up reasonably well, but AG and EXK are Christmas presents here.  Get them for your kids.  RGLD continues to take hits, but mein gott it’s tasty here.  I like AUY and even BAA, as well.

I held off the whole month of January, and did not spend any “year end funds.”  That changes tomorrow.  I’m getting more of “all of the above,” but will keep some dry powder for further Crazy Eddie liquidation sales.  Everyone is printing folks.  Every one is racing to the bottom.  If you think that will hurt the precious, you need to have a look at how much Blackrock and Fidelity own of RGLD, and how much they’ve accumulated recently.  If you think they are the dumb money, well… God bless.

Best to you all.

_________________

The Tide Shall Rise

Tide
_________________________________

And you can bet your ass it will be Crimson.

In the meantime, ANV is hitting it’s 200 week EMA and it looks primed for a bounce to at least $30, as do many in the precious sector.  Oversold like a mothahfathah.  Also, the Russell’s (2k and 3k, in fact, all except Smith) look good here and so do the Trannies (UPS!), but I do not trust the NAZTY NAZ, nor the BKX.  Stay away from tech and financials, at least until there’s clarity.

Best to you all, humans.

________________

_________________

2014 iBankCoin Investors Conference
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The Stand
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Breaking Away
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