iBankCoin
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Yes, Silver Was Oversold

Clayton Moore

And by the early sixties, so was the Lone Ranger
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Enjoy your frapjous day, and bank your daytrade capital returns, bottom callers, for you called the bounce correuctly (sic).   Silver was oversold today, and as a result, the metal enjoyed the slightest of rebounds along with gold (more muted) and even some of the larger cap market.  

Behold the egregious oversoldedness (sic) and note what my crystalline bawls tell me  of the future:

The odd thing is,  the crapulous dollar continued to struggle on, not quite selling off, but definitely not rising like the phoenix either.   It appears besides making soothing statements, Chairman Benjamin is loosing pillowcases of feathers upon this market, excoriating it to “Fly! Fly!”

Alas, a passel of loose feathers doth not make a winged bird, or even a flightless apteryx.   No, it looks like the dollar, too, is oversold, and perhaps seeking a final dip before strapping on it’s BAR for a slog back up the hill:

 And EXK was purchased today by some (though not by me)– a nice pickup at $5.40 if you got it there.  I think it could even go to $6.00-$6.20 on the second day of a bounce.  I will sell more of my stash there, if it gets to that point.   Silver stocks, too, will take on a familar sheen if the dollar rebounds here, as scheduled.    And while I felt comfortable today grabbing some of the much more oversold (and higher quality) SLW at $29.03-.05,  I still contend that  EXK must complete its journey:

Keep this intuition in mind:  one does not buy the metals happily after an egregious pullback.   Rather, one buys them grimacing, and with chitinous trepidation. 

When you feel that grippe, then let it rippe.

Be well.

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43 comments

  1. MDA

    Thank you Jake!

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  2. chessnwine

    Jake,

    Which character in the film “Braveheart” are you most similar to?

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  3. Fly

    Jake is most like the old man who took an ax to the stomach.

    No one on ibc called a bottom in silver pal. Ppt did.

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  4. SPYder_Crusher

    silver/gold/PMs are showing up my OS screens.

    these are the ones I got

    PAAS
    SSRI
    NGD
    SVM
    NXG
    GSS
    ZQK

    Also on that same OS screen were

    CREE
    FFIV
    HCBK
    TTF

    The way you would trade all of those is long with a stop under the 2day low, but while these trades work well in hindsight they are inconsistent.

    The charts show the code I am using to get those picks has incredible accuracy, when it’s right/ but I haven’t traded it enough to know the exact performance stats on it.

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    • JakeGint

      PAAS, yes. The rest I’d leave be. Where’s SLW?

      You are welcome to buy tech stocks. I’m in QID.

      _________

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      • SPYder_Crusher

        SLW must not have met the reqs.

        basically the stock has to be 2x ATR 14 away from a moving average, and in the process of already reversing.

        SLW closed negative, which negates the process of reversing requirement.

        They might be shitty miners, but it’d be for a quick reversal, not any sort of hold. The lowest risk to stop out setups are the most compelling, usually.

        PAAS is probably the best, but I havent looked that closely. NGD too.

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        • TeahouseOnTheTracks
          TeahouseOnTheTracks

          How bout EGO … an early slider that looks to be 1st out of the blocks?

          That said, I am in agreement with Jake re $23-24 for the POS and $1285-1315 for gold.

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  5. Woodshedder

    Jake, I love that you are still using RSI5 rather than the default (no edge) setting.

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    • JakeGint

      I learned from the best. 😉

      Seriously, it’s been berry berry goot to me, or I wouldn’t keep using it.

      _____________

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  6. chessnwine

    Jake,

    How about Stephen? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs8QKXtCN9w

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  7. Teapotdome

    Thank you Mr. Gint, your last couple of posts have been spot on. I know we both agree that silver is to go higher than ever before. And I was wrong at first about the magnitude of this correction, you my friend were right.

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  8. Goldbugvariations
    Goldbugvariations

    Seems you are looking for a bottom around Feb 7th, which sounds about right.

    The XAU and HUI are within a hair’s breadth of their 200dma right now. At IT bottoms they usually fall about %5 below that level. So it may be that we’re looking for XAU 180ish the first week in February.

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    • JakeGint

      I told Fly that last night… by the end of the first week or so, gold and silver will take on their February shine.

      __________

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  9. HuggieBear

    You have juts frightened me out of my newly purchased EXK and AGQ….here’s to hoping there is a nice bounce today to slel into.

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    • xxxhuggiebearxxx

      Dumped everything on the bounce today — dropped EXK at 6.05. Lets hope this wasnt the bottom 🙂

      nice quick gain in any case, since i bought at 5.50

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      • JakeGint

        Nice.

        ____

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        • HuggieBear

          fuck, now i feel like i sold too early….egad man!

          anyway, had to do it…was just playing the bounce…i need to reconfigure my portfolio before i can hold a chunk that size.

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  10. ecchymosis

    Gold bottoming soon……http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell012611.html

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  11. go2mars

    Anyone care to lay down some thoughts on palladium potential relative to silver over a 5-10 year interval?

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    • JakeGint

      I’d take silver over palladium, as it’s got a money demand as well as an industrial one.

      ____

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    • goldbugvariations
      goldbugvariations

      Pull up a 10-year chart and you will see the difference. Silver is 500% higher than it was 10 years ago. Palladium is lower today than it was then.

      Palladium bounces around a lot based on a number of factors — it may experience price spikes, but it’s very hard to say where one should buy or sell.

      Gold and silver are in a very steady bull market, and they have discernible patterns that make them easier to trade.

      Therefore, buying palladium is more of a lottery ticket. Buying silver is buying a ticket to a bull market.

      I’d rather have silver, thanks. But palladium comes in handy as a diversifier at times like these.

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  12. Carsony

    jake are you looking at any aig or healthcare names

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  13. flyaway18

    if you put the 89 day simple average on $SLV you can see it bounced off there Tuesday.

    Not sure if PPT called the reversal first.
    RT @flyaway18 $SLV busy day today, but this one testing support at the 89 day ma; I bought some $SIL small at 20.88.Jan. 25 at 11:00 AM

    Jan. 26 at 4:19 PM
    I also think that nearly 5 percent drop in PAAS on Monday was a signal of a rebound, although I am not sure if it means a reversal in downtrend.
    That being said, I did not buy EXK either, nor did I buy gold, what a bounce though

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  14. Nice

    Gary has prescribed a change in direction, and is going from 35% to 130% tomorrow. What say ye? Are you buying the swing low or is it too soon?

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