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Tag Archives: Silver

Welcome To The Hotel California

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There’s Still Hope When There’s Still Talent and Beauty, California


I read an excellent piece in the Wall Street Journal this weekend, about a New York-born, Cal-Berkely trained demographer, a self-described “Truman Democrat” now teaching at admittedly center-right Chapman University in Orange, California.  The piece, Exodus” href=”http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304444604577340531861056966.html” target=”_blank”> Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus, has Mr. Kotkin bewailing the current state of California’s economic environment, and the effect it’s having on the middle class in that state.

I think it’s instructive, especially given the rhetoric we see being wheeled out about classical economic models of “capital investment + smart ideas = employment growth.”  The left parties in the U.S. are again using the hoary phraseology “trickle down” to describe this time-tested capitalist model, while somehow trying to advance central planning as the “hot, new equitable” thing.   But what have central planning, high taxes, and a large and intrusive government actually brought California?

Good schools?  Not anymore.

Green jobs? Not enough to make up the ones lost in traditional energy, not mention other economic sectors.

A robust public sector economy? Well, yeah, for now at least…. (except for the pensions)…

Tax equity?  Well, yes, if you mean that people making over $48,000 a year are paying almost the same in state taxes as Larry Ellison (9.3% and 10.3%, respectively)

Affordable Housing?  Well, sure.   As long as you are either  indigent, or one of the Jobs kids, given that “free” and “it doesn’t matter” are the only options available to housing shoppers in the region.

Ironically, it seems California — once the 5th largest economy in the world on a stand-alone basis–  has become our very own version of Europe.   Unfortunately, today’s California resembles more a higher tech version of Medieval Europe than it does the more modern variety.   You see, California is swiftly transforming into a place where only the extremely rich nobility, the Sheriff of Nottingham (& his henchmen)  and some very contented peasants can bear to live in anymore.  As Kotkin puts it in his piece:

A worker in Wichita might not consider those earning $250,000 a year middle class, but “if you’re a guy working for a Silicon Valley company and you’re married and you’re thinking about having your first kid, and your family makes 250-k a year, you can’t buy a closet in the Bay Area,” Mr. Kotkin says. “But for 250-k a year, you can live pretty damn well in Salt Lake City. And you might be able to send your kids to public schools and own a three-bedroom, four-bath house.”

According to Mr. Kotkin, these upwardly mobile families are fleeing in droves. As a result, California is turning into a two-and-a-half-class society. On top are the “entrenched incumbents” who inherited their wealth or came to California early and made their money. Then there’s a shrunken middle class of public employees and, miles below, a permanent welfare class. As it stands today, about 40% of Californians don’t pay any income tax and a quarter are on Medicaid.

What’s worse is that such a system, if unamended, devolves into a vicious cycle of Exodus, especially given that this “European State” doesn’t border on neighbors requiring a passport for entry.   The result is not so much a brain drain (California still commands its share of brains thanks to Silicon Valley and the defense industry) as a family drain, and a “middle class” drains:

Mr. Kotkin also notes that demographic changes are playing a role. As progressive policies drive out moderate and conservative members of the middle class, California’s politics become even more left-wing. It’s a classic case of natural selection, and increasingly the only ones fit to survive in California are the very rich and those who rely on government spending. In a nutshell, “the state is run for the very rich, the very poor, and the public employees.”

Again, I have to chuckle.  In one of our bluest states, not only is the left driving out “the middle class” that the President is so often claiming support for, but they are pushing them to traditionally more conservative states like Texas and Utah, who have now become low-tax hubs for the same cutting edge technology that made California the economic engine of the 20th century.

Circumstances such as these that afflict California and my own native New York do not occur over night, but are rather the result of a series of choices taken over many years of feasting on economic prosperity, once gladly and now grudgingly shared.   We must ask ourselves, are these once-great states merely the natural victims of their own success?  Is the U.S. doomed to fall into the same gray spiral we see now afflicting the increasingly infantalized — and seemingly helpless — states of Europe?

Serious questions which must be taken seriously and soon.  Are you game?


I reached into my reserve stores today and bought 40% more SLW at$ 28.32, as reported in The PPT this afternoon.  I am prepared to buy more, as I think we may even see silver touch $30, or slightly below once more, like it did back in September/October of 2011.  Remember those painful times? That’s what has me salivating.

I am prepared to buy more.   My best to you.



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Don’t Say A Prayer For Me Now

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Save That Schit For the Morning After


A funny thing happened whilst I was away from the office today (for the second day)... I got murdered.   Usually when I’m out and about the market is pretty accommodating, like an Edwardian butler in white gloves and tails.   He  may give me a light workout, just enough to suffuse my brow with a light patina of salty perspiration, nothing more.   Even then, he’s there to hand me my plush towel and smoking jacket at the bell.

But today I was accosted by a gang of wiry Cockney longshoremen in baggy jodhpurs and nail-soled leather jackboots.   Reviewing my 50% position in gold stocks like ANV and silver stocks like — you name it, but SLW was down almost 15% today — they proceeded to bash me about the shoulder and ribs with brickbats and lengthy cords of hard salami.  They said something about leaving my face “intact” so there’d be no questions at work tomorrow.

Nevertheless, I speak to you from traction after suffering a near 7% bullshit beating today (don’t believe me? Check out XRA’s action today, and GFYS!), and am lying here in my linament-soaked bandages, waiting for a bounce to get out of some of these damaged names, as per the plan of yesterday.

A bounce, you say?  Jake, you addled fucker, you were thrown down one too many escalators today! How say you “bounce,” pray tell?  Well, here’s clue # 1 on the $SILVER commodity chart.  It’s been almost 15 months since we last hit the 200-day EMA, and yet we hit it today.  The RSI is oversold egregiously as well:




















As for the $HUI today… well, you know the sad sad end of that story.  Like Brad Pitt’s relocated Northern Irish Provisional Army man, Frankie McGuire, said to Harrison Ford’s NYPD sergeant, Tom O’Meara  in the 1997  IRA potboiler, The Devil’s Own

“Don’t expect no hoppy endin’, Tom.  It’s not an American story, it’s an Oirish one.”

Yes, and it appear’s our Baby $HUI ended up just as perforated as young Frankie did at the end of that movie.   What’s more, it looks like there’s still some room to travel even closer to Hell:

But don’t cry for me, Argentinians.   I am getting up and hitting back twice as hard, Chicago Politician-style.  In fact, I swung a haymaker at a bunch of AGQ this afternoon a little too early, at $175 and got stopped out.   I may grab some more on the open tomorrow though.   Also, respecting The PPT and it’s historically oversold levels, I dumped out of half of my TZA hedge and loaded up on a very large dollop of TNA at the close.   I may even add to that if we have a last blow off tomorrow morning.

Don’t let the Man get you down, folks.   Let’s hang together, as we sure don’t want to hang separately.



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The Silver Test

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A Masterpiece, and Highly Recommended


I was looking at some silver metal statistics this afternoon and came across and old fibonacci chart of the silver commodity ($SILVER).   It looked to be running into a relatively significant Fib line of support at approximately $39.50.  That line should hold, given the overbought conditions of the dollar, but here’s the daily chart:



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Testing the “Firefox Cure”

The above was imported via Firefox on WordPress’s “HTML” image box.

The above was typed using the “Visual” image box.  And the rest was italicized in that same mode.


Does Bold work too?


Let’s try to import a picture on Visual… Maybe my latest Stock Charts markup of silver?

Voila!  She is working again!

Firefox (and Jeremy!) you are my saviour!

Bill Gates and Young Frankenstein Ballmer, I spit on your tunics! Stop giving your money away… you will need it to re-invest in non-Ballzed Upware.

Feh! Feh! Upon you both!


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Anything for Billy


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(It’s Good to Know all I have to do is post a bizarre header and I’ll still get the comments ball rolling… BTW — I got the name of the McMurtry Book I thought I was quoting wrong.  Fixed now.)


Yesterday, Monsieur Le Docteur asked, rhetorically, how I cope with the spleen-twisting nature of the silver markets during this bull.  Well now, let my secret be revealed:

It’s mid-80’s Billy Ocean that gets me through the day when I’m feeling low or apphrehensive.

Because there’s nothing like low budget George Lucas knockoffs set to a syncopated pop-reggae beat to get one’s spirits back in order, is there?

Anyway, I consulted by Crystal Ball du Fibonacci last night, and came away with a good news/bad news scenario in terms of near-to-mid term predictions.  First the “bad news” mid-term with the weeklies, for a longer range prediction:

Sorry, but I just can’t help think that trend line (purple, above) will not come back into play before we really get moving again.  

That doesn’t mean, however, that we can’t make some hay while the sun shines.  Here’s the daily to keep an eye on some near term targets:

So trade lithely, here, but with a razor sharp dagger.  And remember, if you get to feeling kind of bluesy, you are only one spin of Caribbean Queen away from a return to bliss.

Best to you all.


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Is This A Dagger I See Before Me?

Lady MacBeth
33 Is this a dagger which I see before me,
34 The handle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee.
35 I have thee not, and yet I see thee still.
36 Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible
37 To feeling as to sight? or art thou but
38 A dagger of the mind, a false creation,
39 Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?
40 I see thee yet, in form as palpable
41 As this which now I draw.
42 Thou marshall’st me the way that I was going;
43 And such an instrument I was to use.
44 Mine eyes are made the fools o’ the other senses,
45 Or else worth all the rest; I see thee still,
46 And on thy blade and dudgeon gouts of blood,
47 Which was not so before.


Sure, we’re all getting a little bit MacBeth-paranoid here.  In fact, many are in full panic and I can understand your feeling.  It was no fun trying to concentrate on track business today (literally) whilst glancing at the ever plunging price of silver, and then gold.

That said, we are in extremely oversold territory here, which should allow those of us who are too nervous to hang on (aye, if the inevitable D-wave is here, we should all be nervous) to exit into the sharp rebound. 

I am still of the mind we are in a severe, if blood-freezing correction, brought on by a number of factors which can only be ascribed to government-regulatory cronyism.  Sorry, I calls ’em as I see ’em.

Take a look at our friend $Silver again after today’s close:

The oversold condition is unmistakeable.  Same goes for AGQ another Bollinger Band crash victim that can make one money right off.

I haven’t seen a stock this oversold since the days we played in IOC, and remember what fun that was?  V-King remembers.   Well, cheer up, it can be fun again, and we can grab some gains here, even amongst the carnage.

Be well, and be attentive, me swabbies — SLW and EXK  look sexy slimmed down like this.  Small bites along the way is how I’ve been re-accumulating monster AGQ.  You may wish to look to that path for any of the stocks you are currently stocking.

I’m tired beyond all belief and Derby is two days away.  Not sure I’ll make it.  More tomorrow.



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