Canucks Took this German Bunker, Back in the Day
______________________
Yeah, so it increasingly looks like we got head faked on Monday, and the dollar (DXY) is going to make another try at that $80.20 level we talked about last week. The dollar is up 35 cents as I type this to $79.73, after dropping briefly below $79 earlier this week. Que sera, sera.
I will continue adding to [[AGQ]] , as I want to get at least another 600 shares for my “full compliment.” I will likely add opportunistically to other positions as wel, as I still have a little under 20% of dry powder left to deploy. The gold stocks seem to be hanging in a little better than my bastard-children silvers, but that’s to be expected. I am extremely pleased at the results of Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] today — beating revenue estimates by almost 30% and earnings estimates by over 20%. That should bode well for my portfolio going forward, even if we do take a bit of a “dollar bite” today.
Again, not so sound like a broken record, but I think it’s very important to concentrate on these key names at these important inflection points — which is where I still firmly believe we have arrived. On the gold’s, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] has shown nice strength, as has Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] should all be holding in here. If you can get Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] in the red today, it is a gift, imho. All silvers should be bought opportunistically, of course, and I continue to love Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] and [[PAAS]] here. Also, you may want to keep an eye on [[PAL]] and [[PTM]] for platinum exposure.
So wear your burlap today for fashion’s sake, and maybe even add a cap fashioned out of old tuna cans for “extra penitant” effect, but be sure to sew extra pockets within your sack so you can sidle into your local gem & coin dealer and slip some cadged Morgan dollars and Canuckistanian Maple Leafs into them as your youngest son fakes an epileptic seizure in the lobby.
Best to you all, my bunkermates.
________________________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Feel free to throw ’em. Just don’t go jumping on ’em
Got to remember that pin thing.
___________
Abandon ship, mates! 😉
silver/gold about to trigger all sorts of stops & whoosh!
It’s time to PANIC !!
😀
Indeud!
Bollinger band crash trades abounding!
_______
This is gonna trigger all sorts of black box selling .
Canucks are tough MoFos. Glad they’re on our side. They like to club baby seals while snacking on bacon.
… and playing curling with Mooseheads.
______
When the final depression comes, having one of those triple-barrel AAA guns on the roof of your house will keep the rabble away from your stash of gold and silver.
Already installing….
_______
Minefields? Check.
Roof mounted quad-barrel AAA gun? Check.
Window mounted MG42 derivatives? Check.
Reinforced concrete walls? Check.
Rabble after your accumulated goods? BRING ‘EM ON!
Wow, PMs are getting the homo hammer of death today.
Glad I left room for buying. Looking for 12.5 on ANV and 13 on SLW.
13.10 is the 61.8% retrace on SLW… that would be a sweet entry. I have made no moves yet this morning, though I am looking at AGQ this second.
Waiting for that dollar to top out already. Freaking Greek geeks….
(ANV should be eggsellent as well, and don’t forget RGLD, which is gift central right now).
___________
Mid 11s for SLW looks possible. It just goes against my nature to go long in a declining stock accompanied with heavy volume. But then, that’s what makes a market.
SLW’s volume has been declining for about the last nine trading days….
_________
BTW, I’m not short any of the precious metals; simply waiting for what I believe could be a better entry. Longer term, I share your view that they should go much higher.
The last time SLW had a comparable pull back was from early June [10.97] to early July [7.12] – a 35% correction which occurred in the course of 5 weeks. A similar drop from the recent high of 17.80 would take the stock to 11.57.
You are correct that the last 9 days trading volume has slowed; somewhat similar to what happened back in July.
http://chart.ly/h6hbhc
We shall see …
Yes, I was looking at that same chart last night. Just thought we were too close to the end of the cycle for another reprise of that scenario.
I’ve been wrong before, however!
__________
I’m sure RGLD is a way better pick but the option premiums on ANV are much better.
If I had steel balls I’d buy LEAPs on RGLD here and sell the short term calls to pay for it but such is not the case.
Be careful about ANV calls… they are unbelievably illiquid. I bot some last year, and even though I made a boat load on them, they were such a bitch to get out of (in any kind of size) that I said “never again.”
____________
AGQ does look good– watching it and platinum for some entries. Need to restart SLW position.
Jake–I’m seeing the US dollar index June 10 futures moving up to 80.40 at times today.
Basic questions you’ve no doubt clarified on earlier posts:
1. should we touch 80.20-80.40 in next few weeks– where would you estimate price of sliver?
2. if job numbers are worse then expected tomorrow- what would you anticipate in terms of dollar and PMs?
3. is there a “super bowl effect” us “sports clueless” types should keep in mind? (this from she who asked ‘who dat’ on a certain basketball player as we recall….)
4. do bears or bulls have overall better health?
ok– back to obsessive live chart watching as i am not a good painter and i don’t like sandwiches so much
1) No idea on where silver will go to on any downspike. It’s the most volatile of metals, never mind PM’s. Keep some powder dry is my only advice.
2.) I suspect we are getting pounded for jobs expectations already today. That story about the “oops! we forgot about these 1mm other jobs we lost” is already out there. I expect the dollar is just using this news for an excuse to complete it’s ascent to the $80.20 area.
3) No.
4.). Better health in what sense? I think more optimistic people live longer, but I haven’t the scientific evidence at hand.
It’s all about attitude I guess.
______________
RGLD: I’m in for a “Piker’s Lot” (400 shares) at 41.77
ZIG!!!
(Zombie is Gold!)
_______
HA!
Hopefully the metals will rise like an unearthed zombie, but faster.
I bought in at 41.88, cheers!
The USD is getting tired .. but I digress, as I lose.
Spiked all the way to 79.97 before falling back to 79.84 at present.
Question – is it a rest or is it done at “near 80?”
I will not be making any hasty bets, I’ll tell you that! 😉
______________
Nope .. PM’s in a dollar black hole funnel … sucking everything into its compressed core
love bull markets! Don’t you ? 😮
They will buck every last mothah-cluck.
_________________
Fuck no kidding, it’s just a sea of falling knives 2008 style
You guys see this the other day …… interesting chart from MS re unemployment/sov debt:
http://ibankcoin.com/jakegint/2010/01/28/once-more-into-the-breach-my-friends/#comment-11585
Seeing lots of resource stocks in wave3 or wave5 down patterns (some ahead of others) but the PM’s for the most part look like they are just beginning the 3rd wave down …. as I mentioned here a few days ago on Jayhawks comment.
You may not buy into OEW but thought you’d find these comments from their board of interest:
If you’re considering to get long
I recommend only above the lower wall (1074.25) and the compression slice at 1074.50 to 1074.75.
Because failure to trade above the lower wall at 1074.25 takes us down to 1046.75
Therefore bottom fishing is quite dangerous
Also take into consideration below 1050.50 opens the door to a melt down pattern.
depending what happens at 1031.00 to 1039.00
The melt reaches 920.75 to 935.00
Therefore the up most caution is warranted on bottom fishing
We should have a better understanding of the situation upon the conclusion of the 46th hour down from 1101.50..currently we’re in the 45th hour.
1060.75 is a key down price target..
Right now we are looking at 1065 as the next crucial level …
This look familiar? It was you two days ago. Up, Up and Away….WooHoo!! LMAO
“Mia Culpa! At least I didn’t do anything today other than eat a sandwich ….
I misread last nights OEW as an indication of Int Wave2 up being completed when INDEUD it was a signal that Int Wave1 had ended and Wave2 was underway. Fly is right again!
“As noted yesterday, a break through the OEW 1090 pivot would help to confirm that Intermediate wave one ended at SPX 1072. We updated the hourly/daily SPX/DOW charts this morning, and Intermediate wave two is now underway. During this bear market, wave two retracements have usually been between 50% and 61.8% of the wave one decline. This suggests that Int. wave two could rally between SPX 1111 and 1120, and possibly higher. Will be looking for the daily RSI to get overbought before expecting an end to Int. wave two.”
Up, Up and Away for the time being … WooHoo!”
Wilbur, we got to within 6 points of his projected minimum …. a real failure right?
He hasn’t changed his opinion yet, wait till tonight to see if he revises or still thinks we test 1111-1120.
The other posters there are being cautious and they have been bearish for some time … the fact is the top appears to be in and I’m 33% cash as a result of the macro trend OEW has been predicting. Selling rallies and watching the $ re PM’s but it looks too early to bottom fish but your so smart, have at it.
You serious? The minimum wasn’t hit. So yes, it was a failure. It’s amazing the lengths you go to defend what is clearly a retarded method of market forecasting. Though, you seem to be quite the retard yourself so perhaps it’s a good fit.
It’s funny, if you had trusted your initial hunches and sold at 1100 you would have made the right call. Instead you chose to trust this crap and you are getting your ass burned today. STOP DOING THAT
No I’m not … I went to 33% cash the day before or same day Fly issued his warning …. all I’ve gotten is a bloody nose today … I’m woozy from all my cash that’s burning a hole in my pocket but resisting the temptation to buy this PM dip …
So you are making a call that we will not see 1111-1120 after this pullback? It’s not over till it’s over … we may still rally but the bottom line is it doesn’t matter unless we make new highs asshole.
The guy gave himself a 9 point range and then hedged it by saying it could go even higher and when it didn’t even manage to hit the minimum of the range you still suck his cock. Hey, it’s your money shitparade. You can lose all of it for all I care.
Read my lips schmuck, it’s a macro tool for me … I don’t buy or sell the market on every micro call OEW makes. He called a top at 1150 and says we are in a downtrend that he predicts will be severe. This uptrend was predicted to recapture a fib 50-62% hence 1111-1120. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t go higher though not back to the old highs otherwise he would be wrong. Fly is predicting a rally, so let’s see if we get to 1111 first before pronouncing failure. Your a little premature … oh, and in case my post (that put you on this rampage) is misconstrued, that is commentators on the board over there …. they are just reacting to this sell off and warning what the future could hold. My message was “buyer beware” to bottom fishers as it’s a dangerous time esp with the PM’s.
Take a look at UUP one year chart … on 3/6/09 it topped @ 26.70 or so as our currency was still perceived as the safest haven. This sovereign debt situation can cause the same reaction and if the $ rallies this time as it did that then UUP could see $24.50 …. figure out where that would put SPX and the PM’s!
The deflation trade may be back on and pm’s may not work as well as they did the last time until the economy shows some real strength.
I can’t “lose all of it” being burdened by so much cash, but I may miss opportunity to gain if my semi-bearish position proves to be wrong. Good luck to you and your $, hope that coin flip methodology works for you.
Here ya go, OEW says that the predicted 1111 wasn’t met as expected based on prior fib retracements but insists the decline will continue. Fly, on the other hand is looking for a rally based on the PPT score and even OEW will have countertrends but the difference is Fly is looking for new highs and OEW says the decline will continue. We shall know soon enough who is correct …
“While we expected the Intermediate wave two rally to make a slightly higher high, [i.e. SPX 1111-1116] the market certainly had other intentions today, right from the opening bell. Clearly Intermediate wave two was only a two day rally, which ended on tuesday at SPX 1105. It was a bit shorter and much quicker than the previous wave two’s during this bear market. We continue to count SPX 1072 as the end of Int. wave one, and now SPX 1105 the end of Int. wave two. Intermediate wave three, the third wave of this downtrend, is now underway. The typical third wave, during this bear market, has been quite strong. Since Int. wave one was 78 points, we should expect this Int. third wave to decline to at least 1027, (1105-78), and probably lower. We have OEW pivots at 1018, 990, and then at 961. Lots of liquidation today on the rally in the USD.”
Nice rant. If you only used it as a macro tool then you would’ve sold at 1100 instead of holding for the higher target, which failed. Yeah, you’re completely full of shit. Keep filling your head with that garbage, it seems to be working out well for you.
I sold on 1/26 … OEW was looking for 1165 as I recall which is why I stayed in, not to mention Fly’s overall bullishness. When OEW indicated that we might not see 1165 and then indicated the 1st leg down was under way that’s when I went to 33% cash …. sorry you stayed all in but tough shit for you.
Now BITE ME as I enjoy a 2″ Ribeye and some Woodford Reserve and sleep easy knowing I’m in cash while you fret about being all in piker!
Of course you sold on 1/26. That explains why you were giddy as a school girl on crack about the market going higher just two days ago. You sure do change your story a lot, just like the OEW guys. I guess that explains why you like them so much, birds of a feather, and all that.
Giddy …. LOL, just cheering on Fly as he was expecting a rally and I thought OEW had concurred and was gunna put some cash back to work until I found my error and posted the same so others got it right too. Too bad some assholes have to use honestly as a tool to their own detriment or to discredit others … have fun watching your account value disappear into the black hole while I sit on my powter [sic] Susan awaiting the next CIT.
Be gone or I’ll start lopping off your limbs one at a time, Dark Knight.
Love the Blue Sky avatar … but it should by Purple Haze. Scuse me while I kiss the Sky, off!
Yes, obviously you were in cash then which explains why you wrote this:
“Last night’s OEW summary:
“Thus far this rally has not been strong enough to support an Intermediate wave one bottom at SPX 1072. Previous rallies during this Int. wave one have been upwards of 17 and 18 points. Yet this downwave continued to make lower lows. If SPX 1072 did mark the low, then this market should rally through the OEW 1090 pivot towards 1100 before making another low.”
BANG! Right on the money … raising more cash shortly.”
And then you wrote this bullshit:
“Mia Culpa! At least I didn’t do anything today other than eat a sandwich ….
I misread last nights OEW as an indication of Int Wave2 up being completed when INDEUD it was a signal that Int Wave1 had ended and Wave2 was underway. Fly is right again!
“As noted yesterday, a break through the OEW 1090 pivot would help to confirm that Intermediate wave one ended at SPX 1072. We updated the hourly/daily SPX/DOW charts this morning, and Intermediate wave two is now underway. During this bear market, wave two retracements have usually been between 50% and 61.8% of the wave one decline. This suggests that Int. wave two could rally between SPX 1111 and 1120, and possibly higher. Will be looking for the daily RSI to get overbought before expecting an end to Int. wave two.”
Up, Up and Away for the time being … WooHoo!”
You are so full of shit.
And that Dark Knight comment was just weird. Pull your head out of your ass.
Yes, obviously you were in cash then which explains why you wrote this:
“Last night’s OEW summary:
“Thus far this rally has not been strong enough to support an Intermediate wave one bottom at SPX 1072. Previous rallies during this Int. wave one have been upwards of 17 and 18 points. Yet this downwave continued to make lower lows. If SPX 1072 did mark the low, then this market should rally through the OEW 1090 pivot towards 1100 before making another low.”
BANG! Right on the money … raising more cash shortly.”
> Don’t get your point … sitting in cash from his 1/25 post I was indicating that into the rally I would take advantage and sell more of my existing position.
And then you wrote this bullshit:
“Mia Culpa! At least I didn’t do anything today other than eat a sandwich ….
I misread last nights OEW as an indication of Int Wave2 up being completed when INDEUD it was a signal that Int Wave1 had ended and Wave2 was underway. Fly is right again!
“As noted yesterday, a break through the OEW 1090 pivot would help to confirm that Intermediate wave one ended at SPX 1072. We updated the hourly/daily SPX/DOW charts this morning, and Intermediate wave two is now underway. During this bear market, wave two retracements have usually been between 50% and 61.8% of the wave one decline. This suggests that Int. wave two could rally between SPX 1111 and 1120, and possibly higher. Will be looking for the daily RSI to get overbought before expecting an end to Int. wave two.”
Up, Up and Away for the time being … WooHoo!”
> Again, expecting to sell into the rally when wave2 up ended I realized that I had misread the OEW post that really just confirmed the bottom of Intermediate wave1 down when we crossed thru 1190 rather than calling a top in Intermediate wave2 at that point and luckily hadn’t done any more selling so I could enjoy more upside as Fly was predicting.
Even the author @ OEW states in tonight’s summary that the 2 day rally was something of a surprise as he was expecting a minimum of 1111-1120 or higher (but not a new high that would violate the old high @ 1150) …
I don’t see where you get the idea that I pulled a fast one or even lied … I have nothing to hide or benefit from by posting the OEW comments other than to share with others as a tool to gage market trends.
It helps me get in, get out, stay in or stay out as the trends change and if you don’t like it then don’t read my post. Secondly, I’ve been here for years and you come along three days ago and start giving Jake head and me shit …. you have a lot of balls calling my action into question when you haven’t proven a fuckin’ thing since you showed up here other than your ability to plop to your knees when Jake gives me shit.
Make a call asshole or I call you BS! I say 1150 is the high and what say you, huh sucker? You looking for another high in SPX, following Jake into gold or silver or just paper trading in mommies basement … come on!
What are you doing wise guy … make a public announcement or shut the fuck up!
“I sold on 1/26”
Those are your words peniskennel. You can backpedal all you want but you can’t erase what you wrote. That is clearly a lie. You were contemplating selling on the 2nd. but decided to hold for a move up to 1111-1120 or possibly higher.
I never claimed you tried to deceive anyone. I made the claim that OEW is bullshit and that you have your head so far up their asses that you can’t see it for yourself. You clearly are unable to step back and see it for yourself. I was hoping to help you with that but then you started going off about the Dark Knight and Purple Haze so it’s clear you have deeper pyschological issues going that need serious intervention.
You’ve been here for 3 years? That’s great. Go fuck yourself.
Yeah I sold on 1/26 … went from 10% cash to 33% cash and anticipated doing more selling. What are you some sort of retard that doesn’t understand selling into rallies?
Meanwhile this all you have to offer since getting here 2-3 days ago … some valuable content offered to the board wilber:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/02/next-stop-10500/#comment-145570
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/02/next-stop-10500/#comment-145594
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/04/picnic-time/#comment-145812
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/04/picnic-time/#comment-145830
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/04/picnic-time/#comment-145842
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/04/picnic-time/#comment-145845
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/02/04/picnic-time/#comment-145880
Now if you aren’t gunna answer my question about what you are doing/have done or intend to do in the market then you are just pissing up a dry rope.
I’m done with you now so go back to lip service on that herd of goats … enjoy the funnel loser!
Yeah, I guess I should go find some retarded market timing method and regurgitate it all over this site, in the name of adding value. Good idea.
Russell is broken. Got a flat and fell off a cliff. Lets hope for a bounce, prepare for the slightly worse.
Good time to update those watchlists.
Jake, do you ever sell OTM puts on IV explosion? I remember you selling calls when your positions were uptrending. Just saying, if you’re a buyer lower…
I generally do not, that being TA’s bag, but I might consider it here if I were looking for a couple of bucks, with the VIX high.
________________
I tend to sell near the money puts as you get the best bang for the buck.
You can do a lot worst than selling volatility today but don’t expect 1% days to go away anytime soon.
For the real brave, selling OTM VIX calls will do the same thing.
Save your sanity; don’t trade $VIX options!
Jake – Happy LT b-day.
How nice of you to remember… let’s see… born in ’56 (like Phil Simms), so I guess that’d make him 54! Sheeeezit!
My hero is an old man! (Glad he made it thus far and got the Bolivian Marching Powder thing under control).
______________
Overall Technical Score on RGLD now at .73 (!!!). Wow. How oversold is that?