Mid-afternoon Check In: State of Jake
Freeeeeeee-ddddoooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!
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Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here, albeit with my guts wound around a spool and looking forward to that “Can’t-Get-Here-Soon-Enough” beheading.
I kid, of course. But I didn’t want you to think I had abandoned you all, or my positions. No, I’m sticking hard here, and have not deployed any more money today, although a couple of things are looking very tasty. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD: 48.32 0.00%) is one of them, already up more than a buck off it’s lows of the day. I may dabble in that one more time before the day is out.
(AGQ: 57.74 0.00%) is presently suffocating me, by means of a large rock laid across my larynx, choke-out style. This is the way this stock trades, though, so you have to be ready for “double draw-downs” as it is a double ETF. I will be looking to add that final 600 shs here, however, and it may be today or tomorrow. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 15.83 0.00%) is equally as ugly, but has (as a kind reader mentioned on the previous thread) quite a reputation from pulling back hard off of highs. Whether it gets all the way to 35%, I cannot say, but I’m also waiting to see how that on develops.
For golds, RGLD aside, Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) (EGO: 13.40 0.00%) is performing the best of my three cabelleros. Next IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) (IAG: 14.59 0.00%) and dragging up the rear is the less liquid Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 15.26 0.00%) . I continue to think Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 15.26 0.00%) will provide the best long term bang for your buck, but I’d only nibble until a turn is confirmed.
The dollar (DXY) is most frustrating here, as it ran all the way to $79.97 only to fall back to the $79.84 region. I was hoping it would clear out all the way to $80.50 or so, but it looks like we may have to wait on that action again, at least until tomorrow.
There’s also a possibility that $79.97 was the high water mark, but I’m not counting any of those quail’s eggs yet.
Note — 1,035 or so is a 10% retrace on the S&P (or $103.5 on the (SPY: 117.0375 0.00%) – that could be a nice target for any resumption in the overall cyclical bull. I imagine we’ll all be pretty exhausted at that point.
Hang in there, folks.
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Special Update:
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Best to you all.
It’s only a flesh wound
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eMkth8FWno
I’ve cut your bloody arm off!
Oh no, you didn’t!
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It’s only money.
Anyone know a good way to buy silver coins/bars without getting killed by commissions? I figure that silver coins will become a medium of exchange after our currency is fully trashed …you know, on our way to the cannibal stage of devolution.
Unfortunately the spreads have gotten very wide recently. I would check the online guys first, Lear and Merritt, and then maybe shop a little locally. It’s amazing how much they are asking on top of the price these days.
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Try Craigslist.
Thank you both.
I’ve bought numerous times on eBay. You need to buy in size to do well though. Figure out if you’re interested in collectible items, or simply in bullion.
State of Jake, eh?
Don’t lie, you used a teleprompter!
Gold/Silver ratio = 69.5! cara mia!
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The sewer bunker needs a bigger vault!
I’ll build that fucker.
There will be a time to buy gold again….probably in 2011 or so. But it would be heinously stupid to do so here….beyond a minimal amount as insurance against improbable outcomes.
And anybody that thinks the DXY is stopping at 80….or 90…..or even 100 isn’t playing with a full economic deck. The dollar has already been devalued and what you are seeing is merely a correction of distorted perceptions. Bernanke would need to print 10s of trillions of dollars to stop it. He barely got away with just a couple trillion. Even that little effort is going to tie his hands in ways that he never dreamed possible. Bank it.
LOL.
Please, I’m eager to hear your economic thesis on why the dollar should solidify here. Is it the monumental debt — both nominal and liability-wise — that will give our dollar a reason to rally for the first time since the mind 90’s? The increasing unemployment? Maybe faultering GDP?
Please, I’m eager to hear your thesis.
And you can’t use “magic” in your explanation, as that’s cheating.
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The downdraft was so vicious that I just couldn’t pull the trigger and traded nothing today.
I also like the 1020 to 1040 level as well.
Same here. I almost grabbed a little more AGQ, but caution took the better part of valor… especially as the 61.8% retrace line was only $3 south of here.
That’s a good sign, though. If I’m hesitant to buy, you know we’re nearing a bottom.
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Jake, read your blog a lot and enjoy your commentary and conservative leanings
I think you are focusing too much on the dollar vs. gold when the euro is the story.
Hey Dan. First, thanks for coming by and making those nice remarks.
Second, I understand what you are saying about the Euro. Believe me, I hold no illusions about the strength of the Euro v. the dollar, especially not now with the PIIGies running around crapping on everyone’s shoes.
But the dollar is as much of a dog as the Euro, and under different but similar stresses. I see the PM’s as a hedge agains all crappy fiat currencies, even if one happens to be operating a little more or less efficiently than another.
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Jake-
This looks and smells like a D-Wave.
What % losses have most D’s inflicted upon our good buddy, HUI?
The last one retraced 100% of the move.
50% retrace here would put it at 333 or so.
That would make for quite a pullback!
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Dollar (DXY) hit $80.28 tonight, and then dropped back to $80.14.
Interesting to watch as this seems to be the turning point for dollar (or not!)
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There’s no sugarcoating that silver move. As for the US$ & other paper currencies; money shifts from one currency disaster to a future currency disaster, and each time a little more of each paper currency finds its way into hard assets.
That’s the looong term deal. The short term forecast calls for PAIN ! !