The Once and Future Gold Standard?
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Some quick notes on direction…
Despite the imprecations of some, this is wholly and incontrovertibly a dollar-dependent market. Wither the dollar, there goeth the market. Your bombastic arguments may be amusing, but the Santa Gods only chuckle when you laud “progress” and “economic viability” like some kind of Parallel Universe Bizarro Karl Denninger.
(Slap! Slap! Slap! Slappity-Slap!) Get serious, at once!
This market is riding a giant tsunami of Bernanke dinero and that’s why it’s been going up like a drunk clown in a circus dirigible. But it looks like Benny’s press machines are getting a rest, ovah heah. Or maybe it’s just that the rest of the world’s craptastic fiat currencies need a chance to catch up. In any case, the dollar is back above it’s 50-day EMA:
I think it’s very likely we could see the dollar rebound all the way to its 200-day moving average (between $79-$80) before it turns once again like a wounded albatross and heads for the longer term lows in the $71 range.
As for our friend Baby [[HUI]] , I mentioned the other day that on Wednesday last week it came within $3 of it’s old highs from March of 2008 ($519.68). That $516.16 high marked the top, however, and we’ve quickly sold down since then to close today at $461.19 — a $55 dollar move in 5 days of trading.
If the stock market is sensitive to the dollar, then the gold miner market is even more so. That’s why I think that Baby $HUI has got some more work to do here. Here are my targets:
Do I think the 61.8% fib (@ $378) is also in play? You bet your sweet bippy, Grandmaw. Verily, I think the move down here is going to be somewhat soul-crushing, and I think the miners may feel the worst of it. I bot some more SPY puts ($110’s again) and now my stash stands at 250 contracts, with a number more of sold calls in United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .
But the bull is not over, make no mistake. So bide your time wisely, here, and keep your wallet hand loose and well manicured as you get ready for the next swing.
That is all, save for my final admonition about the foolishness of your not yet becoming a member of the Trading Hive Mind in The PPT. What gives? Don’t you like money?
Spock out.
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Spock = SAM2
Nice work. Initiated some SPY puts today as a hedge. I think we end 09 strong, then just like that it’s gone.
You sold calls on MON?
Yes, as I’d disclosed in Friday’s post talking about “battening down the hatches.”
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Yea good call I think Jake, although buck trading is devilishly hard at the moment.
Not really trading “the buck” per se — more like “reaction to the buck.”
It’s all crap, as you know.
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The Japanese announcement of another fiscal stimulus announcement amount to $80 billion has upset the apple cart with further Yen appreciation as money heads home.
Jake, Nice work as always.
Meredith Whitney is so bearish, she makes Devil Dog look like Denis Kneale.
Like a Bizarro World Karl Denninger?
(As if Karl needed that cut-glass angular look to make him look like he was from another planet… “Buy Stocks NOW! Bernanke is GREAT! I LOVES FIAT!”)
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Thank you Jake!
TZA up 3% in the pre-market.
I may add on a pullback here.
Perhaps grab some QID as well.
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Bot 10k more TZA @ 11.33-.35
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6k starter position in DUG @ 13.42.
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Jake are you net short now? You seem at least very nicely hedged, just wondering if you’re weighing down towards the dark side yet.
And excellent call on the gold top. Impressive shit.
Well I haven’t quite done the math on the sold calls, the double and treble short ETF’s and the puts, but I’d say I’m probably just slightly net short as of today, thanks to a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines.
Thanks, btw.
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Trying my hand at falling knives … AGQ 2k 61.8 …. I wanted me a sliver du silver at $17.50 .. close enough
Yikes… you’re a brave man, Gunga Din.
I’m outta AGQ for a while. No profit in flirting w. a hot stove.
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Other than the typical, “Congress and President try to destroy the world,” nonsense, there is absolutely nothing going on today.
The dollar is getting quite jiggy here, GLD getting killed
Closed a few profitable trades today (YGE, JASO and part of CGA – thanks RC)
Still very long till the end of the year
Man that is one passive aggresive mother-effin’ apology.
Go thank RC on his own blog.
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What apology? You made a good call on gold and the dollar
I’m concentrating on the market as I don’t play PMs
I was just right on the dollar and gold? I guess the triple short ETF’s, the 250 SPY puts, the purchase this morning in DUG were a bad call?
You were wrong on the markets too.
If you don’t care about what I’m talking about here, why not do us all a favor and go somewhere else?
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I’m interested in what everyone has to say even if I disagree with them because they will eventually teach me something and make me a better trader. Silver Wheaton is on my radar because of you.
As for my call on the markets, I’m neither right nor wrong. It’s still in consolidation mode until that changes. It may correct for a while or push higher, seasonality favors higher right now but that doesn’t mean it will go that way.
I don’t make predictions because that’s the best way to look like a fool (Doug Kass and Perspective the most recent ones I can think of – TIM doesn’t count because he’s just always bearish all the time).
Aw geez, I can’t for the life of me think why your petulant asshole act was anything but the bright clean curiousity of an eager learner.
Forgive me, my paduan.
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No one ever stops learning in this game but with your ego I’m sure you are long done. I just like teasing you on the gold thing but it looks like I have to go with Purdy on this one
Yikes, there’s a shocker.
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Jeez, is it your period?
For the record, you started selling your gold and gold diggers weeks ago …when those stocks were LOWER than today. (We all recall your preciously preening daily whine: “had to sell all day long.”) Those of us who simply shortened the time frame of the charts we’re watching got out higher than you. “shrug”
As for your puts and triple-short ETFs, if you didn’t sell you haven’t made shit. So consider waiting to see if the time value of those positions deteriorates faster than the market before continuing your odd victory prance .
Yawn.
When I “started” selling, dimtoast? I was selling into yesterday.
You sound like a noob trader. I assume you think you haven’t “lost” any on your longs because you haven’t realized them, either?
Think again.
And for the record, I sold 25 today, for my first carve, and the calls are sold SHORT.
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Aside: I thought you commie leftoids were all sensitive to gays and women’s issues, et al?
What is this “are you on your period?” Didn’t that kind of Burt Reynolds talk go out w. Smokey and the Bandit III?
You may need to repair to your nearest re-education center, there, komrade.
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Man, Barrick is just getting plaaayed, hehe.
They are all like “Let’s drop our hedges, sorry shorties”, and those who were formerly massively shorting with Barrick’s cheap Au (or some small fraction of it) are all, “Oh, you think you’re out, do you? Here, have a load of this!” (Enter extra supersized order of Freedom Fries Shorts (semi-clad? Meh, whatever). Hoohoo.
ABX getting served now! Lesson: unless you are willing to totally turn on your masters, don’t leave the plantation.
Only way to retribution for them now is to turn coats and go for full disclosure on the whole alleged ‘market manipulation’ thing GATA is arguing about. And I am guessing it is difficult to go ‘full disclosure’ with ‘non-disclosure’ agreements hanging like a tenuously fastened sword over your head at dinner. I’m betting they won’t/can’t; in general they seem to be ‘lacking a pair’; unless, of course, you count some unarmed indigenous population that wants to continue drinking out a river that one of their mines is rendering poisonous. Though turning to your ‘bought and paid for’ local dictator to crush the thirsty folk hardly counts as what I would label ‘courage’.
Epistemological Disclaimer: Its juat a rant. What do I know, really?
I think it’s just shorts taking advantage of overbot conditions and a strengthening dollar, actually.
Which is a good thing, as it shakes out the weak hands. More for us.
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Agreud!