I can finally utter a sigh of relief as I settle into a relaxing half week or so of sun and stupor on the Treasure Coast. Tomorrow, I sunbathe and wrangle with bull sharks in aquamarine waters!
HA! Just kidding, actually I’ve got two conference calls tomorrow morning and then another 8-12 noon job on Thursday. Then when I get back Sunday evening, I can pack my bags for all this scheiss to start all over again, this time not in the Orange Grove State, or with any mai-tais to accommodate.
Listen pals, I know I’ve begged your mercy before, but this time I think I might be straining your good will to it’s failing point. Listen, I know something’s wrong when my only knowledge of the public markets is via reading my e-mail blasts from Chess, RC and Jeremy (The PPT ratings). I get all kinds of garbage through all manner of metric, but those three have been my anchor these last weeks. Meanwhile, I’ve done very little in my own portfolio — perhaps out of stubbornness, but perhaps also because I believe that the miners are so beaten down in relation to the price of gold and silver that I think this may be the best buying opportunity I’ve witnessed since the March 2009 recovery.
Yes, you heard that right. Every metric I look at shows vast undervaluation of the precious miners. If you never touched these things, now is the time my friend. I am even thinking of looking at the options market here. Today’s divergence in the PM’s versus the overall down market may have finally revealed the truth about the liquidity that cannot be denied in these names.
And somehow, it all makes bizarre sense. Listen — we just had a deal go out that had more bids on it than anything I’ve ever been associated with in my career, and yes, that includes my time in the white shoe world of the Fortune 500-exclusive IB’s of Neuva York. It’s a shark frenzy out there in the private markets ladies and germs… those dudes have capital– shitte tonnes of it – and they want to spend. You think its twin in the public market is really going to puke it all down here? Good luck, pal.
BAA, you sick fuggers. BAA. Then RGLD, SLW and UPS, and MON. At least that.
Wish me luck, and if you cannot stomach that, then wish me survival.
Gold’s not been so hot, here, but I’m patient, and I’ll wait for it to break out of this oversold condition much like I’ve done many times in the past. There’s been little conditional change in the broader underpinnings of this PM market. We still have massive liquidity demand – if only for bandaging purposes on European and American debt problems. We still have too much of our economy being crowded out by government creep (and creeps). And earl and ag inflation, despite the recent sell-offs, are a constant threat.
I am therefore comfortable holding my horde whilst exploring other alternatives that have been solid for me for years. Among those, you know of UPS and MON, which I’ve spoken of many times. I still like those for the very long term. There are a couple of other names, however, that I have talked about much recently.
These are stocks that I would categorize as ”hold forever,” as long as they continue to carry and groom their historically strong management teams. You just put these names away and expect the best. Then one day, they reward you, like Markel (MKL) did this week.
I would encourage you to study up on Markel, some would say they are “the next Berkshire Hathaway.” All I know is that these are very sharp guys on the insurance side… very workman-like and below the radar. The kind of stock I like to hold forever.
On the consumer products front, LANC (Lancaster Colony) — a name I’ve mentioned here beofre– is another gem that does nothing but grow wisely on your supermarket shelves. It looks real nice right here:
Last, for those of you who are jonesing for a gold pick, there is benighted AAU, which #6 asked me about on my last blog post. It’s looking oversold like the rest of the gold market, and it sure looks like it’s in opportune spot here resting on its 200 week EMA:
Patience will be rewarded, as it has been for a decade now.
Newton says that a body in motion remains in motion unless acted upon by another force. Right now that treatise translates well into the action provided by our tentative bull market, perhaps best exemplified by the individual success of one CRAAPL, Inc.
Do I trust this momentum? Not for a minute, especially not with the struggles my belleweather precious metals stocks have been enduring — a precursor perhaps to the interest rate battles that loom on our horizon. Will I play the momentum, however? Of course I will, but with names that makes sense in the broader scale.
Right now, agricultural stocks are starting to make a stealth comeback… moreso those stocks who are largely designed to assist farmer’s yield. Why? I believe it’s because the farmer’s cost of capital has increased, despite our low interest rates, thanks to the ridiculous bull market in farm land prices. Just in Southwestern Indiana alone, farmland that sold for $2,500 to $3,000 an acre six or seven years back is now going for well over $10,000 an acre, and in some cases being sold at auction for $14,000 an acre. In places like Iowa, the values are coming in even higher.
All of that means that farmers need to increase yield value — even at $6.50 a bushel corn — in order to make a return. That bodes well for fertilizer companies like MOS and POT for example. These are two potential breakouts that are not quite ready for prime time, in my humble opinion.
Not so unready, however, is my MON-ster, which has been running nicely since the first of the year, and only recently experienced a pullback. I think it’s the pause that refreshes, and the next stop is breaking out of this consolidating triangle (on the weekly) to take out the top of this fibonacci retrace:
Your relatively low risk stop is pretty obvious on the above chart (below $77.00). Your upside is broad. In the bad old days, MON got as high as $154 a share. I think eventually it will leave even that number behind.
I think we can agree we are in a bull market– at least for the moment — even as we clamber up the Wall of Worry together, pitons digging for purchase, ropes securing us and sealing our collective fates should we drop. If we are going to take advantage, let’s go after the stocks that have been making sense this year without making a big drunken fuss about it like CRAAPL. That’s the ags, and I’ll have more on this subject.
I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again. Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand.
Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions? It’s certainly possible.
But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.
If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now – sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL.
I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.
God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.
The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?
Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?
But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets. From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets. Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.
That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff. This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.
Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year. Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor. Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?
I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime. I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver. This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.
______________________ Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70′s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.
In future, iBC particpants will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.
As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.
Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end. Hang on for the ride.
Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far. For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG). Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively. Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.
I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however. I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.
Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks –AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%). Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.
As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick. I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.
The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%) and COP (-4.0%). Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout. You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.