What the hell was going on with my silver and gold plays today? Something sneaky I thinks, my preciousss, yes…. verrrrrry sneaky, it is, yessss! <Gollum>!
A lot of people who watch these things were commenting on the PPT and elsewhere about the noticeable surge in end of day trading on almost every major precious metal play, both gold and silver. What people may not have noticed, however, was that a similar surge — of similar length (timewise) was going on in the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m timeframe in those same names. Let’s take a gander at today’s [[SLW]] 5 minute daily chart as our first example:
First, let’s note that there are 78 5-minute periods in a trading day. In most of these examples we are talking about only 8 or 9 of those periods, because of where this buying phenomenon was taking place. What was notable for me was WHERE these buys were coming in. Conventional trading wisdom tells us that “the big money” — meaning the institutional traders– will generally make themselves known in the very beginning of the trading day and at the very end.
The first period of activity here is right at the 10 a.m. hour which is not literally the very beginning of the trading day, but perhaps marks the period where most seasoned traders begin to take positions “after the morning shakeout.” Given that this is a Monday, and we had a relatively large negative futures position trading at the open, this explanation of “wait and see” makes some logical sense. The uniformity across the sector also gives some indication of a coordinated purchase here, as there were very few large well traded names in the precious metal sector that did not see some kind of activity in the 10-10:30 area this morning.
Note also the last twenty minutes of the trading day. We can ascribe some of this scramble to short covering, of course, but large late day purchases generally bode well for tomorrow’s trading in these instances. I believe that is so because institutions are clearing the way here for more explosive action in the next few days. Keep in mind that the four five-minute candles (or, 20 minutes in total) we see make up only 5.13% of the trading day, but are responsible for 10% of the shares traded. Again, I think this is significant not only because of the volume, but because the rapid ascent and the sharp upturn of the A/D oscillator shown in these last twenty minutes also indicates that most of that volume was buying at the ask.
Let’s look next at fellow Jacksonian Silver pick [[PAAS]] :
If anything, the two moves in PAAS are even more significant in both price and volume, compared to the rest of the day’s trading. The four five minute candles from 10:10 to 10:30 a.m. comprised 13% of the day’s trading and reflect a large buying program, as the price ascended rapidly. The rest of the day consisted of light volume pullback until again, the last tweny minutes gave way to almost 20% of the day’s trading, and another rapide ascent in price. All tolled, those forty minutes (10% of the trading day) of buying accounted for one third of the daily trading, and again seemingly almost all “on the ask” — figuratively, if not literally.
Let’s look last at New Jacksonian Holding [[SSRI]] :
SSRI shows a full half hour of buying in the morning, again, starting at 10:10 and concluding at 10:40. While this morning purchase was not market by the same volume as PAAS, it again shows the rapid ascent characteristics of a persistant buyer or buyers behind the bid. That half hour comprised about 11.6% of the daily trading (in about 7.7% of the time) and the “afternoon session” was limited to a brief fifteen minute period that was marked by increased volume and another very rapid ascent. In that fifteen minutes (less than 4% of the trading day) we saw over 12% of the daily buying. Again, I think it’s clear we are talking about a concentrated interest here in this final burst.
In the interests of saving time and space, I won’t go through the Jacksonian gold positions that saw similar patterns today. Interestingly, not all of the golds — particularly the smaller cap names (like [[EGO]] and [[ANV]] ) — saw the 10 a.m. buying, at least not in the same consistent fashion. However, they all saw the late day surge in purchasing with ANV seeing a full 23.7% of it’s daily buying (along with a 4.5% price move) in the final 15 minutes!
We find the same morning and afternoon program purchases that we saw in the silvers above in Jacksonian pick [[RGLD]], with 10% of the daily trading between 10 and 10:25 a.m. and another 15.5% in the final 20 minutes of trading. [[GG]] shows a very similar pattern, as do many other of the “big golds” like [[AEM]].
I guess in conclusion I’d posit that there’s something afoot here, friends, and that you should be attending to your PM positions, as I think we may see a more significant move here in the coming days. Of course, we may not, and all of this coincidental analysis could be the result of my rampant apophenia due to excessive exposure to William Gibson novels. Nevertheless, I believe this action bears consideration and careful attention.
Be well, friends and enemies.
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“apophenia” – Jake, you are a much better source for a “word of the day” than the OED. The best they could do today was “non-performing, adj”. Five stars. Oh wait. We don’t do that over here.
Jake, I so hate your politics. Your acumen, however, is priceless. Great post.
Yogi —
Confession: I just read that last night. Gibson is a guilty pleasure.
Goin’ — just curious — how old are you?
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Goin,
And whats wrong with his politics? Are you not a freedom lover or something?
“Goin’ — just curious — how old are you?”
Old enough to be batting 1,000 on my calls here, and at an age where I don’t suffer fools lightly, or ingratitude. Long enough in the tooth enough to know the difference between a true leader, a demagogue, a charlatan, or a liar. I have a level of experience that enables me to feel which way the wind is blowing, and I was born long enough ago to use such an out-dated euphemism. In short, old enough, Jake.
Very cool observations.
Hi Jake,
You like EDR (endeavor silver) and NXG?
I am warming to NXG. I have to look at EDR. There will be a “rising tide/ all boats” factor in all this, though, I assure you.
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Goin’ — I was going to say, if you’re relatively young, at least that’s an excuse.
Although not a strong one.
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You see Cardiff, I would argue that I am more of an advocate of personal freedom than most. ‘Cardiff’ eh? You ever consider that Cymru might be better off if the Welsh said ‘Nos da’ to the british monarchy? Isn’t that a ‘freedom’ you would love?
Honestly though, I would rather like to limit my comments on Jake’s tab strictly to subjects that are directly affecting the market, I don’t want to waste any more of my energies trying to convince him of anything; I have found there isn’t any point. When we come to points where we disagree, I’ll just take his opinion for what it’s worth to me, as I am certain he does mine. If I happen to think his observations/suppositions will affect how much money is in my bank account, I’ll weight it and apply it to my decisions.
“Goin’ — I was going to say, if you’re relatively young, at least that’s an excuse.
Although not a strong one.”
Oh SNAP!
The irony is, all of your political tendencies are least conducive to “money in your bank account.”
If that’s actually an aim, I count you a confused soul, and have pity.
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Polar — Endeavor is EXK, which yes, I own (small bit).
EDR is a REIT, I think.
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I like everything about silver and pm’s, except that the gov has a vested interest in keeping their prices under control. I don’t like that I find myself “fighting the fed”.
Jake just take the compliment, lightly barbed though it may have been. Then you will truly be the ‘bigger man’. ‘Pity”, eh? I am surprised an Ayn Randian like yourself has the ability to experience such emotion, misplaced or otherwise. There are many differences between you and me, Jake, but a very large one is that when it comes to enlarging my account balance, that’s not my single, persona-defining goal.
$1.8T 2009 fed gub bud deficit bitchez. A.P. silver & gold are long term holds.
Goin,
Make no mistake, I’m from a mean place in NY not the UK. If you have time research the “CardiffGiant” and you will find an interesting story that took place in my back yard years ago.
Anyway, in the meantime why dont you address Jake’s point regarding the irony between your stated goal of making money and your collectivist freedom hating politics??
Curious movements, to be sure. Would you guess the big money is hedging against inflation or attempting to dampen the risk of another run down?
Five hours’ New York jet lag and Cayce Pollard wakes in Camden Town to the dire and ever-circling wolves of disrupted circadian rhythm
I came “this close” to registering on iBC back in the day as WinterMute.
Interesting and good stuff Jake – which of these do you like for a little run this week? I am already long NXG, thinking about adding some gold to my portfolio – maybe GG, PAAS, EGO, ANV?
Anyway, in the meantime why dont you address Jake’s point regarding the irony between your stated goal of making money and your collectivist freedom hating politics??
Hey Cardy – you live here? No? Keep your opinions to yourself. No need to keep showing your ignorance all about.
How am i ignorant? Seriously? Can you be specific?
starting to get interested in silver names now, thanks. i’ve sold gold calls though I might just roll them over come june. a new tactic for my long term holdings.
do you have fundamentals chat about these names ? I suppose if there’s a move its across the board, so less worries and stick to the safe PAAS. I’m about to scan them all and read their books. with miners you have to figure out their hedging too, right ? that can affect their earnings quite a bit.
EXK
Cardy –
Let’s assume that you mean this as a definition of collectivism:
Generally speaking, collectivism in the field of economics holds that some things should be owned by the group and used for the benefit of all rather than being owned by individuals. Central to this view is the concept of the commons, as opposed to private property. Some collectivists apply this principle only to the means of production, while others argue that all valued commodities, like environmental goods, should be regarded as public goods and placed under public ownership.
(from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collectivism )
as opposed to the collectivism as being borne out in the US taxpayer taking on the collective losses of the automotive/banking/fill_a_form_for_tarp_funds system you have there there, Canadian policy makers are more than willing to let Chrysler and GM fail
“I don’t think it is in the interest of the Canadian public to have continued funding to a company if there is no deal with their union and if there is no outside investor, or no outside partner in the case of Fiat,” he said. “Those were our conditions…. So if you’re asking me whether I’m willing to funnel Canadian government money, taxpayer money, when we do not have an acceptable plan on a go-forward basis, I cannot do that. I don’t think it would be responsible.” – Industry Minister Tony Clement
Additionally, I would happily point out to you the return of the Smoot-Hawley “Buy American” mania which is returning US trade to it’s jingoistic roots. An easy example is the replacement of Canadian Steel in Camp Pendleton for spurious reasons.
The jingiostic blather of “freedom” you spew down there is very ironic considering the long history the US has on reneging on free trades going back over a century.
I quote Sir Wilfrid Laurier from a speech given to the House of Commons in October 1903:
I have often regretted Mr. Speaker and never more than on the present occasion that we are living beside a great neighbour who, I believe I can say without being deemed unfriendly to them, are very grasping in their national acts, and who are determined upon every occasion to get the best in every agreement which they make
This being the follow up from the international arbitration in which the US ignored the 1825 treaty with regards to Alaska and Canadian access to the Pacific.
Fast forward to the incessant refusal to adhere to NAFTA when it goes against US interests and you’ll find that not only is Cardy living in a country that has a long practice of collectivist activities (think of any First Nation people moved off their land because of the government’s “public domain” aka quest for oil) but, also grievous continued economic nationalist agendas.
Goin’- I am glad you believe you have me “all figured out” but your references to “Randian-ism” and my alleged “goals” betray at least a reading comprehension deficiency, and most likely an arrested concept — bordering on the misanthropic– of one’s fellow man. Not surprisingly, I find this rather self-aggrandizing compulsion to devalue others in many leftists I’ve met.
I’m convinced it’s a maturity issue, which allows me hope.
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Cain- both
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Bluth- I would buy all the silvers I’ve named above before the golds. That said, your list is a good one, but should include royalty company RGLD.
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Artha- I have stopped selling calls against my PM positions, as I believe a large move up is imminent.
I don’t get overly concerned uyg the fundies after I have determined that the company has a sound balance sheet and Mgmt team.
I avoid purchasing any hedged miners.
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Cuervo- I fear you make the mistake common to many brought up in a statist educational facility– that of identifying the individual’s personal political construct with that of his government.
This is most assuredly not the proper assumption to make in this country.
Also, please give “jingoism” a proper burial, as I believe you have officially beaten the term to death.
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Regarding Apophenia:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/index.php/2008/06/23/back-from-the-abyss/
Wish you had that poster, huh Jake?
(BTW, the point of this comment is about the poster, not claiming credit for a word, which would be ridiculous.)
Cardy “Anyway, in the meantime why dont you address Jake’s point regarding the irony between your stated goal of making money and your collectivist freedom hating politics??” Incorrect assumptions in this statement aside: I have many, many times discussed this, but I am no psyops expert, so I don’t know how, or have the inclination, to delve into the decades of conditioning some Americans seem to have undergone when it comes to their country’s history or even it’s current foreign policies. Nor do I feel its my obligation to do so. As long as Jake sticks to subjects he actually has true insight into, like market trends, I will continue to give him the repect he definitely deserves.
Some Americans remind me of the dentist in Kurt Vonnegut’s “Mother Night”. He was a fucking brilliant dentist, top of his field, but ultimately a sociopathic savant, because he believed that he could prove by their teeth that anyone who was Jewish was inferior to those who followed a different faith.
And I do mean, “respect”. ANd I do mean “…he believed,” as in, “was labouring under the misapprehension”.
Jimmy Rogers says silver over gold ….
The Euro over the $ ….
Japan over the U S ….
He hopes the IMF will sell their gold even though it may upset the price in the short term, as it will be the end of the IMF once they are out of funds, and no nation will have the means to support them going forward ….
Oh, for our neighbors to the north and south …
Rogers also said he preferred investing in countries rich in resources as long as they weren’t debtor nations … he mentioned Canada and Brazil … he didn’t mention Australia, J? Have you guys mismanaged your finances too?
50 ounces of silver on Ebay @ $800 … ($16/oz vs spot of $14) for about a 15% premium … pretty steep but that seems to be standard 10-15%
E8, got a Canadian play for you, when Jake’s silver prediction pans out. First Majestic Silver FR.to, looks pretty primed to me. When silver goes over 14.10 USD/oz, load up.
Fair enough Jake but with regards to the mistake as in: that of identifying the individual’s personal political construct with that of his government.
This is most assuredly not the proper assumption to make in this country.
I believe that Cardiff_Giant’s “collectivist freedom hating” comment fits that to the letter as well.
Furthermore, it is confusing that you would refer to the Canadian school system as being “statist” when any reasoned study of the Canadian school systems and the historical controversies therein http://manitobia.ca/cocoon/launch/en/themes/msq/2 one would find that one of the great strengths of the Canadian polity has been the push-pull dialectic between the Franco and Anglophones.
To wit, the term “Canadian” was first applied to the French speaking fur traders born here (Canadien to be specific) and it is these dual lingustic poles that has kept the Canadian identity, economy, and politics deftly out of reach of those that would attempt to use cheap reductionistic sophistry when broadly insulting a national character.
If by “statist” you mean secular consider that where the right wing religious ideologues of the US refer to the US as “one nation under God”, the Canadian history has shown to be deeply religious with regards to the English speaking government tithing a seventh of land to the Anglican church and the Francophones and their long held cultural identity as Catholics.
Rather the Protestant moral ethic in Canadian society has been such that (to quote Robert Bothwell) They (Methodist and Presbyterian) harkened to a vision of society united through a godly concern for the welfare of all its members, not torn apart by class warfare
The essential piece that Americans fail to grasp when they come into contact with the Canadian ethos is that the groundwork from inception has always been one of diversity as opposed to cultural assimilation. It is worth noting that even as far back as the French Revolution, the Canadiens refused to fight on the behalf of the ideals of the revolution on this side of the lake preferring to keep the peace and live alongside each other.
By attempting to broadswipe Canada with a French named Prime Minister (Trudeau) these short sighted, ill informed critics of Canada continually fail to understand that, if nowhere else on the planet be, the very core of the Canadian spirit is dis-statist because it continually carries, at minimum, dual cultures: French and English.
You need only consult a dictionary. Under the word “statist” you will find the proper definition.
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Jake,
why do you bother? your time is more valuable. nothing to win, nothing that you would want to win.
you’re the man, jake. great stuff as always.
E8: update on that FR play. Keep it not too long, 15% gain, max. Then run. No need to be too greedy…
Jake – it’s pretty clear that you used “statism” to mean “centrally planned economy” or it’s another one of your synonyms used to paint Canada with the “socialist” brush.
Coming from the religious right, this swipe is often accompanied with the term “secular humanist” as socialist countries (especially those who describe themselves as being Marxist or Maoist) are vehemently opposed to organised religion.
Nationalism plays a huge part as well being a tool used by Communists and Fascists alike to distract the population from the removal of personal rights and liberties.
Perhaps you should use this comment as a preface to the previous one and you’ll understand better my point.
Holy blood pressure, Batman! Calm down, brushbuck, calm down. O.K., will refrain from the fray but hear this: there’s too many scab pickers here. Let the damn thing heal.
Jake, what a great and timely post. Your ending comment on the apophenia/novel re the corporate logo chasin’ guy, once I put the whole thing together, reminded me of the more well known “just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean that they’re not out to get you.” If you know what I mean.
Shotgun to the head: 3 best pm picks today for a 2 year hold?
Wish you had that poster, huh Jake?
Danny — that’s the stuff… but is that… a dog’s ass??
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Chivas, my friend — as you are from a country that was destroyed by a tacit agreement between the political left and the “respected free press” (as we’ve discussed), I would think you’d understand why I think it very important to counter the hard left’s illogic whenever I encounter it.
I have four young children, and I don’t like the way this country has turned from freedom of opportunity to enforced “equality.” I believe this is the path to tyranny.
Perhaps this is just cyclical turn, but I won’t let the left destroy this country as they have so many others, without a word of protest. And the wave has yet to crest, in my opinion.
And in case you are thinking I reply to the socialists in hopes of convincing them of the error of their ways, please put that notion aside. I write here for the many young people who visit this site, and who have been so ill-informed, so filled with illogical notions through their “schooling.”
The lefties merely serve the purpose of foil, and as an example of just how irrational– albeit self assured — the governmental populists can be.
All we can hope is that the truth shall set “some” free, I guess.
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Cuervo, there’s no need for further obfuscation on your part, I have the definition right here:
stat·ism (sttzm)
n.
The practice or doctrine of giving a centralized government control over economic planning and policy.
——————————————————————————–
statist adj. & n.
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Shotgun to the head: 3 best pm picks today for a 2 year hold?
You’ve probably seen these before:
SLW
PAAS
RGLD
(And GDX for “portfolio diversification).
I also like GG, EGO, ANV, IAM, SSRI (silver) and AGQ (double silver ETF, so be careful).
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Nice pops on the open for the PM’s.
Who’da thunk it?
Thanks, Jake. I was thinking GDX, SLW, and EGO. Will do some homework on all suggestions. Rather than AGQ, might it be wiser to put twice as many $ into SLV?
Jake,
just to be very clear, it bothers me a great deal that people who constantly denigrate this country, and more importantly, constantly villanize you and yet read your your blog so they can make a buck, are given the opportunity to do so. having said that, i am in agreement with the things you said above. i worry that you my friend, by refuting their statements are just providing the stage that they seek. it has been my experience that these people are better dealt with by just ignoring them or not providing the forum that they seek. better yet, would be to just eradicate them, wishful thinking on my part. thanks for being you, Mr. Jake.
Rather than AGQ, might it be wiser to put twice as many $ into SLV?
That’s up to your risk preference, as AGQ is a leveraged position, you are going to get “twice the move” of SLV no matter how much you buy.
I think the better idea with AGQ is to buy it for swings like these, and then sell it when you think a pullback is coming. Similar to ERX (earl) in that fashion.
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Chivas, understand completely and I appreciate you looking out for me.
However, I don’t think the Statists’ arguments are very sound, or very difficult to refute.
Therefore, I see more value in refuting them publicly — again, for the benefit of others who have not had the opportunity or time to educate themselves (and it’s unfortunate that this education must nearly always come from outside the current educational system in this country).
I consider it an obligation of citizenship, and one I’m happy to perform.
Lastly, on the whole banning thing — I am against it. Why should I fear their speech when I can counter it with my own? Sunlight is a far more able antiseptic than censorship.
Now, if they get disgusting, that’s a different story altogether.
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AAANd enter, stage left: “The practice or doctrine of giving a centralized government control over economic planning and policy.” So would that definition include supporting failed businesses without consulting the electorate?
How many banks has Canada recently bailed out again?
America: Communism for the uber-wealthy. lol! They can’t afford a decent public health care system, no; not in a million years. But first whiff of a bank bleeding: “Here’s a trillion dollar band-aid”. Or if a corporate monster needs some more oil profits it’s, “let’s start yet another war, based on yet another fabrication”. Who knows, maybe Jake still actually believes the ‘Maine’ was sunk by a Spanish Torpedo. Dupes.
And Chivas, I have made no ‘bucks’ from Jake’s acumen, I have made them all from my own. When Jake’s agree with mine, I congratulate him as he deserves, so please take his member from your mouth when you are typing, it’s muffling your speech.
Also, repeating like a broken record over and over again the same old belaboured jingoisms hardly constitutes ‘refuting’; when it comes to ‘fallacious reasoning’ Jake is ad hominem all the way.
well said. i agree. Jake
Heheh. A friend of mine just said, “I thought they were supposed to be talking about metal prices…” Fair enough, I say. As long as we stick to that, I think Jake and I can agree on a lot of things. Jake?
Jake, hows your traffic?
Lets just make health insurance mandatory like car insurance? Its the biggest scam with bigger crooks than the Fins. How bout the fella at UNH that made 1 billion being a CEO of HMO. I mean God Dammit one uninsured procedure can can BK somebody. These Docs are pulling down egregious stupid $$$$ fuck them and their 740BMW lives.
Someone was asking about dealers to buy physical silver and gold.
Well I just got this tweeted to me regarding a sale on silver bars.
Caveat– I know nothing about this dealer, but that seems like a good price.
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Illustration:
I think “Goin” reveals his lack of rhetorical ability in his last screed. This in turn discredits his arguments “goin’ forward.”
See how easy that was?
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KC —
Whatever the current problems in our healthcare system (one of them being a shortage of doctors, thanks to the AMA’s rationing of medical school accreditations), it cannot be “solved” by turning the keys over to a politically oriented (and serviced) bureaucracy.
If this were not “common sense” enough upon it’s face, a study of the world’s rationed socialized medical systems would surely convince the most cynical critic.
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Friend of mine found some silver today at a buck over spot at his local dealer in Taipei. But the travel would add way too much to the price: I think Jake has found the best deal.
Best asshole dip buy I made was buying physical platinum when it was 1:1 with gold in late october/early november
Jake says: “…Perhaps this is just cyclical turn…”
(crazy?) Pat Buchanan seems to agree.
“Why then is the Republican Party agonizing publicly over what it is supposed to do? If history is any guide, the pendulum will swing back in 2010.”
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=97847
let’s hope so
Centralization of the US health care industry over the past 30 years is to blame for its current problems. I don’t see how a move towards socialization will alleviate this, indeed it will most likely worsen the problem.
“I think “Goin” reveals his lack of rhetorical ability in his last screed. This in turn discredits his arguments “goin’ forward.”
Ahh, I take it back, you’re not even an ‘Ayn Randian’, Jake, you’re just another Phadreus, a common sophist.
Rhetoric isn’t equivalent to reason Jake, and so an argument that is (in this case) subjectively described as ‘lacking in rhetorical ability’ cannot be discredited by your opinion on the quality of its delivery alone.
Jake you need a couple of logic courses, I would throw
in one on epistemology for good measure.
I am liking the melt up on SLW, I think it might trigger a big move up in a few days if not sooner.
By the way Jake, I got in SVA at 2.71. My main goal was to get in at a better price than you!
“Goin'” continues to hurl childish ad homs.
QED.
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By the way Jake, I got in SVA at 2.71. My main goal was to get in at a better price than you!
Yes, I saw that, you braggart.
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Danny — I saw that back then — in fact, I think platinum dipped below gold at one point. I was thinking of getting my wife something in platinum at the time. Did you get coins?
Or bars?
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Jake, is it just me, or did your observations of yesterday’s precious metal behaviors more or less just finish repeating themselves today?
Looks like there was something to my apophenia after all, no?
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as usual I had to look up one of Jake’s words. Turns out I know what apophenia is, I just never knew how to spell it.
ps- But either way, nice finish on SLW.
pss- yet again you freak me out with the blog pic. That dude is weird looking!
I have had good experiences buying pm’s online at Apmex and Bulliondirect over the last year or two. When buying physical, I think one should care a lot less about the “premiums” and a lot more about the reliability of the dealer.
Its alarming what a small % of US citizens have any pm’s. Most don’t have the slightest idea what a silver dollar is even worth.
“Looks like there was something to my apophenia after all, no?”
Jake: you KNOW I love/hate you.
New post up!
I will try to embellish later… off to lax practice.
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