– Sell on the online retail-news. A nice high volume bounce on OSTK sends the stock rightabove the 20. Retrace back to the 10.
– SPWRA crossed the 10, but moved above the 20 on low declining volume. Stock nearly doubled in less than a week.
– IRBT, another eerily similar 1-week pattern to SPWRA, but this one crosses both the 10 and 20 on declinig volume. Up about +25% in past week. Fade back to the 10.
– GG, will have a tough time getting past 30. Gold stocks are crowded. Trading above the 25 resistance point, but on declining volume. Should get backbelow 25 in the next few days.
– CPF, is one ugly bear controlled bank stock. After 5 bars of buying volume, it follows with heavy selling. Short here with a stop slightly above the 20-day (13.20)
– TGT, sell on the retail news. TGT only slightly below the 20-day after thin trading. Now at the top of its 3-month down channel.
Finally, I like energy stocks heading into the winter. If we get a dip on Monday (OPEC didn’t cut anything Nov 29), I’ll be looking for my first entry into some energy/oil plays, while shorting gold as a hedge.
An aLoHa to my new twitterfunknasty friends. Let’s see, who do we got here? AbnormalReturns, a veteran in the stock blog community. Mac, ChartSwingTrade! Another great IBD believer and contributor to this blog. A few strange ones, like Masturbation. Don’t know who Pinays is, but tempted to follow. Lol. And BobBrill, an “IP Lawyer”, don’t know what that is but he seems like a smart guy. Wazzup Bob!
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gludibokslosh | |
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bobbrill / Bob Brill | |
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geolaw | |
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timothystevens | |
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elkate | |
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colonmadness | |
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Masturbation | |
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safeheaven | |
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olgs / Kenny Luk | |
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ForexMasterfcck | |
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NextBest | |
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darkobodnaruk / Darko Bodnaruk |
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ep34 / EP | |
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ChartSwingTrade / Chart Swing Trader |
I disagree on the energy stocks. Natty is down, CHK is broke, all the oil bigs are overpriced, betting on Iraq no-bids. Watch OPEC, watch Iraq, they are putting the squeeze on marginal producers. IMO the MIC and Oil bigs are the last to get the homo hammer.
ok, i messed up those charts. they are not showing the 10 and 20 day MA. they are showing the pointless 50 and 200 day moving averages (which only confirms the downtrend).
Scum… its a technical swing trade, something like, “cover on the news.”
-gIo-
this just in via Twitter, for you wallStrip fans: Howard Lindzon likes the OSTK short idea
Hi Gio, I must admit, I’m not much of a TA person.
nakedcapitalism.com
from reuters:
“We are very concerned about overproduction.” – Qatari Oil
Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah.
I love spikers
test
hey Gio
my new site?
it’s still not open yet, but at least it takes member’s only login–I think?
Overproduction. Hmmm. And now they want to stabilize at 75. One oil minister said 75 was a “fair price.”
http://tinyurl.com/fundamentals1
I’d like to make another “Hi-5” to LiquidMountain… a fellow Hawaiian Island Trader! see you on Twitter bruddah. Maybe you can help me out here and keep this blog Hawaiian?
and if you haven’t yet done so, go to iBankCoin’s new tabbed blogger and leave a comment there, “Chart Addict.” He’s a very skilled trader whom you can learn a lot from. iBankCoin keeps getting better, no?
-gio-
Great tips, GIO. I love IRBT and GG short.
As for my own picks, I love BHP (at the 50-day and diagonal trendline resistance), AF (50-day and trendline resistance), AZO (25-day and $110 support now becomes resistance and narrow-range-bar and rally on declining volume and diagonal support in Oct&Nov now resistance)
Hey Scum… I’m not a TA person either. but i’m basing this swing trade setup from my notes earlier…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/?p=2370
… one thing though, the cartel didn’t do anything. which is actually good for the broad economy (lower energy prices = higher consumable income for retail). however I have a gut feeling that we’re in for a relief rally in this sector (notice the large increase in shorting the past few months. time to unwind that, no?).
Hey Phil-from-Brazil… as long as those picks don’t come in a thong, then sounds good to me too. AZO is a great short candidate.
all my short candidates have strong Sisyphean Bullish characteristics, mainly, lack of volume. I need confirmation for the boulder to start rolling down
Ideas are always welcomed. i’ve got enough post-it notes.
-gio-
If anyone is interested, I have Merdith Whitney’s (Oppenheimer) 11/26 report on the financials industry in .pdf form (I got it from my twitBuddy Raznick). It is a must read for investors in the sector, and covers the effects of TARP Capital in the light of C’s bailout. There’s also an analysis of BAC, C, JPM, WFC, GS, and MS credit card securitizations.
This report is 37 pages, and i’m still on page 12 or something, but i hope to get an opinion up and a strategy up by the end of the year.
If you want a copy, email me. ..
[email protected]
@Gio wrote: however I have a gut feeling that we’re in for a relief rally in this sector (notice the large increase in shorting the past few months. time to unwind that, no?)…
The way I look at it Q4 ’08 earnings will uniformly suck, probably Q1 ’09. Marginal producers are being squeezed, crack spreads are still low. Natty is cheap, and so is coal. I feel they are all over-priced at current levels, even if with the upside prospect of a huge Iraq contract here or there. Add in an unfriendly administration waiting in the wings, it could be bad. The problem I have is political instability and that some of the bigs, such as XOM, are sitting on huge piles of cash, with little debt, so share buybacks, possibly at insanely high prices could be a problem, as has been the case elsewhere over the last couple of years. They sure aren’t going to invest in new projects at these prices. All of this brings us to the medium-term, (1-5 years) unless usa consumption drops another 10%, or Iraq comes on line in a big way, another price spike could be in the offing. Short term I am looking for energy and MIC stocks to decline, then rise again. It is the only sector worth looking at for a long term investment, but there are a gazillion variables. IMO, big oil is a sell here, a buy at 50% off recent highs.
thanks for the dd. i still haven’t bought any energy stocks on the long side. Just watching HK and GMXR for now to see if they can survive this selloff. Right now, I am concentrating on fading the solars.
that’s all for energy plays for now.