As I mentioned before, the market right now is trading like a boulder being rolled up a steep hill. Without volume, or without participation in pushing this “boulder”, we will continue to roll back down over and over. If you are bullish, then you understand how frustrating this action has been.
We are only a few points away from notching last Thursday’s “Miracle Rally” from turning into a proper Sisyphus Rally… remember the components for this long term pattern:
1) severe bear market decline leads to…
2) extremely oversold conditions, leads to…
3) market “rolls” up very sharply, but on news, hope, and NOT fundamental real positive changes
The current “rally” could indeed develop into Sisyphus Rally because the market could move up here on the famous seasonal “Turkey Effect”… again, this is fueled by the “hope factor” which does not bring about real fundamental changes, ie, we still will have staggering declines in consumer numbers and extremely ominous guidances. The boulder will come rolling back down. Here’s a chart of what could play out to be what I would call a proper Sisyphean Rally. Really, the downside looks pretty much done on this chart, but then again, how many times have we said that this year?:
As for tomorrow’s tape, here is a snapshot of the volume going on in the Dow Again, the price side of the rallies look good, but the volume just isn’t strong enough… even 11/13 big volume up day pales in comparison to 10/10 sell-off. And the two rallies we had on “big volume” in the past month has not been followed by another up day with volume… NONE!! Even IBD refused to notch yesterday’s final hour breakout as a FTD, which is good because then I would have to cancel my subscription to them.
… we got that one last floor at 8,140 holding us here. We need another big +5% move with volume before we get under that. Bulls, do your thing, or else!
… as for me, instead of waiting for the bulls to commit financial fratricide, I will wait two scenarios: 1) for the higher probability of the market breaking that 8,140 on the Dow to get below 8,000, which would send the Vix back up to the 80s. Then I will get long for my Sisyphean Rally before getting short before the boulder rolls yet again. OR 2) wait for the follow through day and get long intraday. Who knows, that may come this week.
Stop making predictions based on the color of your screen, ok? Pay attention to volume!
Aloha from Gio, to my new Twitter stockers (get it, “stalker” haha. nevermind.)
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You are now following jewdpac 
What is the formula to determine if volume is high or low during intraday? i.e., at 11:00 am could I determine if volume is meak or strong by usng a formula? Or, How do I know volume? I read your site daily. Thanks for your help.
-200 more points and the “bull trap” will snap on you.
300 points on today’s spread. That’s about +100 to -200.
… doesn’t that seem like Sisyphus myth to you? Come on bulls, quit pushing the rock.
Gio, how do you access your twitter site?
Hi Mistah G…. do you have a twitter account? If not, then get one and you can follow me. all updates go to your account.
Otherwise, you can probably just go here.. http://twitter.com/thehawaiitrader
Gio, what are your current positions?
Sisyphean boulder?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYhDu1UzLSs
Hi charlie… sorry, i missed this comment. my positions are Short BOH, Short FXP, and long DYY. Biggest position is BOH.
that’s all.
Nergo… pull out a chart if you have level 2 quotes. Intraday volume is useless. Use day-to-day action, sometimes multiple days.
Volume always is highest in the beginning and ending of a single day, so no need to track that.