If History is of Any Use…

Everyone is having fun trading FNMA today. I, however, have opted for a less exciting afternoon, looking for broad market clues and building a watchlist of stocks that can last the test of time.

The IYR is down another 2.5% today. Let me explain to you why this is happening.

REITs enjoy a very low rate environment. Because of these low rates, they’ve been able to finance projects at extremely low costs. REITs live and die by the credit markets and are valued based upon their NAV, which is based upon their balance sheet. If rates are heading higher, that is a material downside event for their balance sheets and NAV, which in turn means the stock prices need to go down.

But are rates really going higher? Do we really think the Fed will allow this to happen?

I am skeptical of anyone who shorts The Bearded Clam, for he has made me fortunes since 2009. Assuming I am correct, the REITs are great buys down here.

We must take a look at O, SBRA, MPW,JMI, AVIV and other hard hit REITs.

I am going to narrow down my watchlist to a few good REITs and begin buying them soon. I am respectful of market forces and will allow for the stocks to breathe, knowing they’re under extreme selling pressure. Believe it or not, this is typical of May, seeing the REITs get hit. It happened last year and in 2010. Both times the May sell off represented optimal entry points for the industry. I believe buying them from here until mid June will yield the same results.

REITs are getting smashed again. See for yourself.

In turn, mortgage related plays are getting hit too.

Add in the homebuilders, which are down more than 1% today, some much worse than that, and you have a legitimate reason to believe this correction is for real.

PHK is down more than 4.5% again today, further solidifying evidence that anything with yield is getting hit. I must admit, this is surprising, especially since TLT is up for the day.

High risk alternative energy plays continue to surge based on speculation that TSLA is doling out a “super charger” contract this week. Names in the mix are BLDP, UQM, ECTY, PLUG and CPST.

For now, SRS and DRV are the inverse plays to own, as these REITs get smashed to pieces.

Be distinguished about your exit from the market. There’s no need to make dramatic proclamations or go for a spin in the FAZmobile wearing nothing but VXXtits. The market is heading lower because it must.

I am a firm believer in Darwinsim, the mechanism that corrects (extra Grady) the stupid money from ever encroaching on that of the smart. Every once in awhile the dumb money makes it through, infected local country clubs and charitable dinners to the chagrin of legacy members. But for the most part, those who lived by the sword will die by it.

Many of you reading are the epitome of “stupid money”, always clowning around in the margin account, playing the hot stocks for hedonistic pleasures. Your time will eventually come to and end, as the multitudes of speculators who went bust before you.

“The Fly” is edified in the old ways, instructed to “never lose money” under any circumstances, which at times makes me risk averse–causing me to “miss out” on occasion.

Enough of the boastful lecturing, here’s what you need to watch carefully.

PHK
TLT and a little bit of LQD/JNK

It’s important that yields remain low. Should they keep spiraling higher, it will spook the markets and set us back 1-2,000 points on the Dow. There isn’t any cause for alarm yet, as this may resolve itself soon. However, in the event that this is the beginning, you should take it upon yourself to sell out of high spec names and raise cash.

Treasuries, REITs and Japanese stocks have been hammered this past week. On top of that, we’ve seen notable risk aversion in many high beta names, like NFLX, UNXL, RSOL–just to name a few. The PIMCO high income fund (PUK) dropped by 6% for the session and commodity related stocks have been behaving as if runaway deflation is taking place.

My Risk Appetite Index has fallen below $100, coming down from $105.

Either the large cappers and income names are foretelling dangers ahead or the rotation out of stodgy non-risk names is so acute that we can coexist in a world where rates soar, the dollar rises, and stocks continue to make new highs, all the while “old economy” stocks get placed in the doghouse.

All I know is that I’ve been tempted, perhaps by The Devil himself (you never know), to buy a wide array of super risky stocks, like BLDP, CPST and PLUG, at a time when my assets under management are at levels that have marked my top in the past. Each and every time I hit this level, I am rebuffed and sent seaworthy, like a viking without a paddle.

Going into today I was fully invested, so I sold some stocks to remain nimble towards the end of the session. There isn’t anything wrong with raising one’s flexibility in the face of a profound sell off in treasuries. No matter what they say, there isn’t a pleasant outcome to this story, if it plays out like it did today.

We cannot, must not, have higher treasury rates, else all is lost. The initiative of the bulls will be snatched, like a purse from and old lady in Brownsville– and the housing market will stiffen up a bit (no rigamortis).

With cash, I reserve my god given rights to depravity and will exercise this enablement whenever, wherever, I choose, with the highest degree of talent and penchant for performing “market magic” afforded to me through my patrons: the gods themselves.

NOTE: Today was the first in four days that overall market breadth eclipsed the 50% threshold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqDt0rnNYvU

I sold MT and JIVE, but added to IMMR, in order to raise cash and allocate assets to a name that I fervently believe in. Both JIVE and MT were designed to be technical break out plays, not based upon a story. IMMR is a story, which is working, so I bulked up into the bell.

The situation with treasuries is a JOKE. Believe you me, it will be resolved and everything will be fine. However, we’re dealing with a bunch of melodramatics in the media, who enjoy conjuring up fear on main street, which in turn affects Wall street.

Sell your illiquid names, the ones that are pure gambles. Anything you buy, do it with purpose, have a reason behind your purchases and try to do so in liquid names.

Liquid to me is a stock that trades at least 500k shares per day.

My day was flat, after gaining 1.5% in the morning. I had losses in FRO and gains in USG, IMMR, YZC and PAMT.

God strike me down if I get bearish again. For now, let’s just call my act of conservatism a pause in the degeneracy that I typically partake in on a daily basis.

Treasuries are getting smashed, sending yields to new highs. Since everyone is pondering when the Fed will stop QEing, rates are going up–organically. We haven’t had anything to worry about since European sovereign rates were blowing out. Well guess what?

If US rates continue to surge higher, borrowing costs will become burdensome, precipitating another credit downgrade. It’s one of those self-fulfilling prophecy thingies that we’re all so fond about.

The market is still up, but gains have been cut in half. Don’t look now, but a major panic is right around the corner if TLT continues lower.

Do yourselves a favor and get some protection, raise some cash, and DO NOT retweet this post or share it with anyone, else they’ll steal some of these ideas for themselves.

UPDATE: I sold JIVE and MT, raising cash levels to 35%.

Many of you are so battered, bruised, by the crash of 2008, you’ve never gotten over it. You’re still living in this fantasy land where gold, silver and bitcoins are your savior and the financial system is on the verge of collapse. You’re self-deceptive, molding a reality to fit your end–the purest form of insanity is always via delusional thinking.

Its been many years since the collapse and people have gotten very rich since then, yet you’re still waiting for civilization to implode to validate your farm land and 20 years worth of dry goods in your basement.

Back in the 1950’s, people built nuclear bomb shelters, equipped with enough food and water to last for decades. Yet, all the while, America was at its best. Had you been stuck in your retarded shelter back then, you would’ve missed out on the great “nifty fifty” run of that era.

What are you so afraid of anyway? Do you want to live forever?

By no means am I writing this post to rub salt in your wounds, putting myself on a pedestal–just because this market has gone up everyday for the past 6 months. I am doing you a favor by letting you know the truth. The country isn’t on the verge of collapse and the dollar is here to stay. Housing has recovered, even I bought a new house last year. You and Peter Schiff live in alternate realities, one that doesn’t conform with true facts.

The quicker you realize you’ve been fighting a futile war, the more expeditious your travels upon the path to recovery will be.

From the darkest corner of his house, Benjamin Bernanke lights his cigar, filled with marijuana leaves, turns on CNBC, and excitedly says “got you bitches again,” then blows plumes of smoke into the air–whilst listening to his favorite rapper: Richard Ross.

Futures are +15, based upon Central Bankers doing long lines of cocaine, buoying world markets at the behest of the controlling elite, the plutocracy. Those who are readily betting against them, via misguided short positions, will soon see their possessions seized by the marshal and auctioned off to the highest bidder.

Now, there are two questions you need to ask yourself before the market opens.

1. What sectors shouldn’t I be aware of?

2. What sectors should I be aware of?

The answer to those questions can be answered with one simple train of thought.

You don’t want to chase down dogs that haven’t run yet. Quit being such a damn contrarian. This is a momentum based market and if you’re not participating in it it is more likely as a result of your stubbornness to buy what is being bought, than a bout of poor luck.

For example: CSIQ is up nearly 30% this morning off of great earnings. The entire solar space has caught fire. What is an investor to do?

Well, obviously, you should be buying solar, not coal or oil. And, you should’ve bought TSLA for the $100 roll, like I told you last week. Due to the run in solar, alternative energy stocks caught fire last week, led by FCEL, BLDP and CPST. Look for that trend to continue and gain momentum. Other names to be made aware of are PLUG and QTWW.

Might the coals go higher? Perhaps. I am long YZC more for its chinese burrito exposure than for its deliciously carcinogenic coal.

I’ve also taken a liking to JIVE, IMMR, MTL, MCP and PAMT. See these are “good” ideas, not some hodge podge of lazy misdirected themes put together by a cold caller.

You want to know another “good idea?” How about FRO? Earnings are right around the corner and they’re not supposed to show any improvement, whatsoever. However, they have enough cash to last until 2015. Therefore, in my view, there is significant room for an upside surprise in the shares, as they’ve baked in nothing at all.

Enjoy the rally.

None of them were any “good,” per se. I’ve looked into all of the names that you listed, hundreds of them, and they all came up short. You must be doing your research from the bottom of a whiskey bottle, or worse–if at all possible.

Some of the names listed in the previous post should trade lower, dramatically, over the next 6-12 months. I am not surprised that these “gifts” were bestowed on me for my birthday.

You may try to assassinate me, many have tried before. All have failed.

I have my own ideas, which shall and will be represented on this blog for the next 500 years. You will be long gone, and dead, but the stock picks will still be generated here, via PPT3000 auto-trading algorithmic ATM machina–the future of algorithmic trading.

On a serious note, markets look poised for another up day. I’ll be sure to visit you fine folks in a few hours, after I deal with some soon-to-be-leaving company from the House of Fly.

Let’s hear your stock ideas for next week. I’ll post my favorite on Sunday or Monday, depending on how hung over I am.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6mDfqVxWCo