Chipotle Misses Earnings Expectations, Operating Margins Collapse

Chipotle is a dead brand. Look at the operating margin erosion for the quarter, coming in at just 14.1% v 28.3%. On top of that, if it weren’t for their new rewards program, essentially giving away food, this quarter would’ve been far worse. Even still, they missed by $1.06 — citing a 14.8% drop in sales. With all of the evidence stacked against them, the board of directors continues to throw money down the drain through share buybacks. To date, they’ve spent upwards of a billion in buy backs and for what? Sharply lower share prices, nonetheless.

Chipotle Mexican Grill misses by $1.06, misses on revs; guides Q4 comps just below estimates; guides FY17 EPS in-line with high single digit comps (405.67 -7.68)

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $1.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.62; revenues fell 14.8% year/year to $1.04 bln vs the $1.09 bln Capital IQ Consensus. The decrease in revenue was driven by a 21.9% decrease in comparable restaurant sales (modestly below estimates), including a reduction of 0.8% on comparable restaurant sales resulting from deferring $11.5 million of revenue related to unredeemed awards from the Chiptopia Summer Rewards program that ran during the third quarter of 2016, partially offset by sales from new restaurant openings.

Comparable restaurant sales declined primarily as a result of a decrease in the number of transactions in our restaurants, and to a lesser extent from a decline in average check.

Restaurant level operating margin was 14.1% in the quarter, a decrease from 28.3% in the third quarter of 2015. The decrease was driven primarily by sales deleveraging (including 0.9% from the Chipotle revenue deferral) and an increase in marketing and promotional spend which totaled 4.8% of revenue for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 2.4% of revenue in the third quarter of 2015.

Sees Q4 comparable restaurant sales declines in the low single-digits vs. ests near -0.5%. New restaurant openings for the full year at or above the high end of the previously-disclosed range of 220 to 235.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $10.00 vs. $9.94 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
195 – 210 new restaurant openings

Comparable restaurant sales increases in the high single-digit vs. ests near +7.5%
Restaurant level operating margins of 20%.

Board of Directors has also approved the investment of up to an additional $100 million, exclusive of commissions, to repurchase shares of our common stock. This repurchase authorization, in addition to up to ~$69.2 million available as of September 30, 2016.

The stock has initially jumped to $420, but is now lower by 2% to $397.

It’s all relative, really. CAT was higher this morning, now sharply lower. FCX was busting testicles to the upside, soon to give it all up. Everything you fought for is being taken away, as the market rides on a little fucking tricycle around the edges of a volcano which is about to erupt.

Very soon, it’s gonna be Pompeii in this bitch. Most of you will be liquidated, skeletons and all, back into the binary code of the matrix. After it’s all said and done, self driving ubers will be the only things left, solar paneled fucktard cars traveling from ghost town to ghost town in search of human anatomy.

The market you see here is hard and it has been this way for nearly 3 years. While it’s true, there have been pockets of elasticity, whereby investors were permitted to scrape together some solid trades in order to feed their families, I’m afraid we’re delving back into the reality phase of this business — when hard facts matter.

The UA earnings are indicative of a loser consumer. He’s spent, beaten about the brows with ‘affordable care acts’ and he doesn’t want any more.

Look for a very stark and grim holiday season, with blood and guts festooned across Xmas trees, throughout America. I hate to look past national festival day, which is fast approaching. But the fuckery is reaching a high pitch and I’m bearing witness to an unraveling in certain sectors that demands attention.

More on this later.

Enough of the King Dollar nonsense. The eurofags have all but destroyed any chance of normal life for the rest of their existence, through their stupid union, coupled with an immigration policy that is destined to welcome thermal nuclear detonations — continent wide.

The dollar is at 9 mo highs v the euro, which sounds sort of nit pickish — the type of headlines created by jerkoffs. Truth is, the euro is doing far, far worse on a longer time frame.

Observe their failure.

This is the common thread, worldwide. America is a giant fucking ATM for the global kleptocracy which is raping America for everything. First they took the IP, then the jobs. Finally, they want to drop foreign currencies v the dollar to all but eliminate American competition vs their inferior goods and also make their utter crap very cheap for our consumer based economy.

In other words, we’re encouraged to spend and delve into debt, while surplus economies take the cold hard cash and save it. Sounds like a great deal…for anyone but Americans.

The EU is a failed experiment and their QE is the only thing keeping it together. Once they stop rigging markets, the EU will collapse.

Meanwhile, FCX is shooting higher, in spite of bad earnings. This is one of those runs that is based on a short squeeze, not fundies. Also, CAT is higher too following their shortfall.

No one said this shit was easy.

In closing, fuck Europe and their currency. The higher the dollar goes, the worse it is for our exporters.

Shares of Under Armour, led by their asshole CEO, are getting fucking hammered this morning, following a slight earnings disappointment. Growth is expected to slow to just 5-8% — which is not what Wall Street wanted to hear from the fast growing retailer.

Also, the company continues to pay up for revenues, suggestive of a company forcing the top line and susceptible to significant margin erosion and earnings collapse.

For the fourth quarter, expect revenues to grow approximately 20%. (Approx $1.404 bln, Capital IQ consensus $1.43 bln)

Gross margin is expected to be relatively flat versus prior year.

Expect operating income in the range of $186 million to $191 million, representing growth of 5% to 8% over the prior year.
Long-term outlook and associated guidance for next year.

At 2015 Investor Day, we announced our goals of achieving $7.5 billion of revenues and $800 million of operating income by 2018. We are on track to achieve our 2018 revenue goal of $7.5 billion and expect to grow full year revenues consistently in the low-20s in both 2017 and 2018.

Expect annual operating income growth in the mid-teens in each of the next two years as focus on investing to GET BIG FAST.
North America Apparel growth is slowing across the industry.

While expect to continue to significantly outpace the apparel industry, the growth rate going forward will be less than expected from our Investor Day in 2015.

We could choose to optimize for more near-term profits but we believe it is more prudent to invest to maintain superior growth rates while gaining both share and scale. That said, we will invest more heavily in areas that we can grow faster such as footwear, direct-to-consumer and international as well as more aggressively enter Sport Fashion, like UAS, and the much broader sports lifestyle category.

International growth includes being more aggressive in key markets where we are gaining significant awareness such as Asia.

Beyond 2018, we believe we have opportunities across categories, channels and geographies to consistently deliver superior revenue growth relative to our industry. We also believe that as we approach $10 billion in revenues, the scale it provides along with the investments we have made in people, infrastructure and systems will begin to pay off in the form of increasing operating margin rates.

The street sees through the typical UA horseshit and is punishing the shares in an Old Testament fashion.

With a FPE of 50x compared to 20x for NKE, UA is obscenely overvalued, if the growth narrative is dead.

Another member of my FIST OF DEATH thesis missed earnings and warned. Copper is higher by 2% this morning, which is providing succor for the shares in the pre market. But these were abysmal earnings and the shares should reflect that.

Again, this is another company wholly dependent on China, via copper sales. Unless the Chinese are prepared to lever up their economy to 400% of GDP, I see nothing but sheer apathy for the shares of FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan misses by $0.06, misses on revs; Lowers 2016 expected operating cash flows, Lowers CapEx guidance; Lowers debt to $19 bln

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.19; revenues rose 14.6% year/year to $3.88 bln vs the $3.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Consolidated sales for the year 2016 are expected to approximate 4.8 billion pounds of copper (including 485 million pounds from Tenke), 1.26 million ounces of gold and 73 million pounds of molybdenum, including 1.3 billion pounds of copper, 590 thousand ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of molybdenum for fourth-quarter 2016.

Average realized prices were $2.18 per pound for copper, $1,327 per ounce for gold and $40.63 per barrel for oil for third-quarter 2016… Q2: Average realized prices were $2.18 per pound of copper, $1,292 per ounce for gold and $41.10 per barrel for oil for second-quarter 2016.

Average unit net cash costs were $1.14 per pound of copper for mining operations and $15.00 per barrel of oil equivalents (BOE) for oil and gas operations for third-quarter 2016… Q2: $1.33 per pound of copper for mining operations and $15.00 per barrel of oil equivalents (BOE) for oil and gas operations for second-quarter 2016.

Unit net cash costs for the year 2016 are expected to average $1.20 per pound of copper for mining operations… Q2: $1.06 per pound of copper for mining operations (including Tenke) and $15.50 per BOE for oil and gas operations.

Operating cash flows totaled $980 million for third-quarter 2016. Based on current sales volume and cost estimates and assuming average prices, operating cash flows for the year 2016 are expected to approximate $3.6 billion (including $0.3 billion in working capital sources and changes in other tax payments)

Q2: Totaled $874 million for second-quarter 2016. Operating cash flows for the year 2016 are expected to approximate $4.5 billion compared to prior guidance of $4.8 bln (including $0.7 billion in working capital sources and changes in other tax payments).

Capital expenditures totaled $494 million for third-quarter 2016, consisting of $333 million for mining operations (including $250 million for major projects) and $160 million for oil and gas operations. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $2.8 billion for the year 2016, consisting of $1.6 billion for mining operations (including $1.2 billion for major projects) and $1.2 billion for oil and gas operations

.Q2: Totaled $833 million; Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $3.1 billion for the year 2016 (Prior guidance $3.3 bln), consisting of $1.7 billion for mining operations (including $1.3 billion for major projects) and $1.4 billion for oil and gas operations.

At September 30, 2016, consolidated debt totaled $19.0 billion and consolidated cash totaled $1.1 billion. At September 30, 2016, FCX had no borrowings and $3.5 billion available under its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility. FCX expects to receive $5.2 billion in gross proceeds during fourth-quarter 2016 in connection with previously announced asset sale transactions

Q2: At June 30, 2016, consolidated debt totaled $19.3 billion (Compared to $20.3 bln at the end of Q1) and consolidated cash totaled $352 million (Compared to $331 mln at the end of Q1).

Full disclosure, CAT is a distinguished member of my FIST OF DEATH — which are 5 short sales of mine designed to bring forth the end of the world.

In my opinion, there isn’t a higher conviction short out there than CAT. The company is wholly dependent on a robust Chinese economy and mining industry, both of which are struggling in a big way. The company just came out with earnings and sales sucked.

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.85 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.76; revenues fell 16.4% year/year to $9.16 bln vs the $9.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus

The decrease in revenue was primarily due to lower sales volume, resulting from lower end-user demand attributable to continued weak commodity prices globally and economic weakness in many developing countries

While sales for both new equipment and aftermarket parts declined in all segments, most of the decrease was for new equipment. The unfavorable impact of price realization also contributed to the decline

Sales declined in all regions

Operating profit for the third quarter of 2016 was $481 million, compared with $925 million in the third quarter of 2015. The decrease of $444 million was primarily due to lower sales volume, resulting from lower end-user demand attributable to continued weak commodity prices globally and economic weakness in many developing countries.

In addition, restructuring costs and price realization were unfavorable.

Co lowers FY16 guidance, sees EPS of $3.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $3.55; sees FY16 revs of $39.0 bln vs. $40.13 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $40.0-40.5 bln

Caterpillar preliminary outlook for 2017 is that sales and revenues will not be significantly different than 2016 (consensus EPS slightly higher and rev slightly lower)

From a valuation standpoint, this company is woefully overvalued, trading at 40x revenues. Based upon the valuation algos in Exodus, whereby a PE is affixed to a company and growth rates extrapolate a fair value, the stock can get cut in half from present values.

This is a no brainer short, in my opinion.

There are common crooks ruling this great nation — tricking half the country to believe they’re righteous and liberally minded. Both the Obama and Clinton regimes are scummy and corrupt crime families, whose sole purpose is to exert their power for direct financial gain. The former is more interested in spreading his brand of community chaos ops to divide the country, while the latter is only interested in cashing in and ushering in a global government.

If you’re a liberal, the only candidate running for President this year is Jill Stein.

Rumors of Barack Obama being a Manchurian candidate have been widely un-exaggerated. Why on earth would his cabinet purposely screen for candidate based upon religion is beyond me. I thought Obama didn’t see things in the prism of religion. We aren’t a fucking theocracy and Muslims make up less than 1% of the total population in the country. Ergo, why the hell was his cabinet stacked with muslims?

This is Podesta leak was addressed to Michael Froman, advisor to Obama, key player of the 12-member advisory board on Obama’s transition team, circa 2008, from Preeta Bansal,  former member of  the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom and Obama’s No. 2 immigration adviser.

Source: Russia
From: Bansal, Preeta D (NYC) Sent: Monday, September 29, 2008 11:01

To: Froman, Michael B Cc: ‘Onek, Matthew’ Subject: Asian American Candidates, Muslim American Candidates

Here are the compiled lists of Asian-American and Muslim American candidates for top Administration jobs, sub-cabinet jobs, and outside boards/agencies/policy committees.

A couple things to note about the list of Muslim American candidates:

1) In the candidates for top jobs, I excluded those with some Arab American background but who are not Muslim (e.g., George Mitchell). Many Lebanese Americans, for example, are Christian. In the last list (of outside boards/commissions), most who are listed appear to be Muslim American, except that a handful (where noted) may be Arab American but of uncertain religion (esp. Christian).

2) There is only one candidate I thought was a viable one for a Secretary-level job among the Muslim Americans. That said, on both lists, there are some very senior people listed in the last category (for outside boards/commissions) who conceivably could be considered for top jobs. The very senior people I put on the last list tended not to be terribly involved in politics or policy, or in the case of some Asian Americans, had already served in the Clinton and even Carter Administrations and so I thought we should seek new talent. But there’s no magic to some of the placements. I think the lists are fairly exhaustive, but some of the people may be moved to other categories.

3) High-profile Muslim Americans tend to be the subject of a fair amount of blogger criticism, and so the individuals on this list would need to be ESPECIALLY carefully vetted. I suspect some of the people I list would not survive such a vet — but I do personally know, at least in part, virtually all of the candidates in the 1st two categories (but I know very few of those listed for outside boards/commissions).

4) I listed the elected Muslim American democratic officials at the end of the second category, but for various reasons, I didn’t think any of them would necessarily be suitable for an Administration appointment. Nevertheless, I wanted to flag them for you in case you wanted to evaluate them further. DOJ list will be coming in the next two days. Judges and USAttorneys will still take about 10 days. Let me know if the latter are needed sooner.

Preeta D. Bansal Partner Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP Four Times Square | New York | 10036-6522 T: 212.735.2198 | F: 917.777.2198 [email protected]

The fuck?

Washington Post is a denizen for mentally incapacitated english majors. Jennifer Rubin is a deranged person — whose world view is distorted through the prism of her psychotropics. This is not an effort to defend Bill O’Reilly in any way — but to display the very obvious ticks of Ms. Rubin — which could only be described as being mentally disabled.

In my experiences with dealing with butthurt libtards, the vast majority of them are mentally ill, sick, deranged people.

The mind that alters, alters all.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, fucktards and morons alike. It’s only a video presentation that implicates “the only Presidential candidate” of crimes against democracy.

You people deserve the President you get. I hope to see many of you swinging from gibbets, after Hillarys gets elected and sentences you to death for misogynistic activities.