$CAT Ruins Life For Bulls; Stocks Readying to Dive Greasily Lower

The real reason why stocks are going to gap lower today is because I went long on Friday. It seems, and perhaps this is my paranoia kicking in, I’ve done something to upset the balance of the cosmos. It seems, the celestial Gods are watching me directly and punishing me for something I might’ve said or done. It could be an infraction as little as looking into the sky sideways. Maybe the Gods saw that and said ‘fuck that guy — punish him.’

Whatever it might be, I would like to take this opportunity to tell the Gods to FUCK OFF. I don’t give a shit about my money and would gladly watch it go all the way to zero, just so I can start over again and get it all back.

This out from CAT this morning.

“Sales in Asia/Pacific declined due to lower demand in China, partially offset by higher demand in a few other countries in the region,” the company said in its earnings press release. “Unfavorable currency impacts also contributed to the sales decline.”

And this out from VALE.

VALE -8.3% (Vale S.A. updates information on the breach of the Dam I of the Córrego de Feijão mine that occurred in the early afternoon of January 25th, 2019; suspends dividends on interest on capital as well as any deliberation on share repurchases)

And this out from NVDA. BIG fucking shock. I knew this was coming.

NVIDIA lowers Q4 guidance
Co issues lowered guidance for Q4 (Jan), sees Q4 (Jan) revs of $2.2 bln from $2.7 bln vs. $2.71 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Let’s see how it goes. Prepare to get fucked.

Let me preface this by offering a hat top to Jeff Macke from the land of Twitter for taking CEOs to task on moronic buybacks several years ago. Up until that point, I was indifferent on the matter, chalking it up to CEOs doing things to improve shareholder value. However, after taking a deeper look into this issue, time in and time again, share buyback prove to be a terrible avenue for capital. As a point in fact, it’s simply a fucking waste.

More than that, these god damned CEOs are borrowing money in order to execute these buybacks. Think about it, borrowing money in an effort to effect a short term pop in the stock. How fucking stupid are these people?

Yeah.

How perverse were the buybacks last year? How does $1.1 trillion sound to you?

Dick Bove is out with a piece tonight, dropping shit-bombs on bank execs for wasting shareholder money. This a change of pace for Dick, since he’s usually cock-holstering for them. Please read the following.

Approximately 21 of the nation’s largest banks have reported their earnings in the past two weeks. In aggregate, these 21 companies posted 2018 earnings of $154.6 billion. The common equity of these companies grew by a net $2.4 billion over the same time frame.

Implicit in these numbers is that these banks paid out $152.2 billion of their earnings to their shareholders in stock buybacks and dividends. It is believed that they did this because Boards of Directors and managements felt strongly that these payouts would increase the value of their stocks. Not only did this not happen from Dec. 30, 2017 to Jan. 23, 2019, but in every case, but one, the stocks also went down in price.

The return on equity farce

In sum, banks, gave away $152.2 billion, mostly to people who wanted nothing to do with their banks (sold their stock back to the banks) and the banks received nothing in return. Bank managements argue that this is not so. They state, universally, that their returns on equity rose as a result of the stock buybacks. This argument is almost a farce.

Return on equity is just a number on a piece of paper that has nothing to do with cash. To calculate this number a bank divides its net income by its common equity. In the past, if the bank had a high return on equity one would argue that the bank’s growth rate would be high and its price earnings multiple should grow.

These arguments make no sense today. The reason is because the banks are, basically, not reinvesting any of the money they earned back into their businesses. Repeating out of $154.6 billion in earnings they reinvested $2.4 billion in their businesses. This plowback of earnings into the businesses was 0.2 percent.

No business use for the money

Most company managements have publicly argued that they have no use for the money. Others have actually stated that they believe stockholders may have better ways to put this money to use than the banks can.

Really? Am I supposed to invest in a company that cannot find any use for its earnings in growing its business? Is a bank really a great investment if it thinks investors can earn more money than the bank can on bank cash? How about this one? This bank is a solid investment because it cannot find a way to invest incremental funds – really?

The fact is that the bank argument makes no sense for another reason. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the effective Federal Funds rate was 10 basis points. It is 240 basis points today. Simply stated these banks could have earned $3.5 billion more if they held on to their cash.

When pundits scratch their beards as to why bank stocks have done so poorly for 18 months, they may consider what investors know. That is that one invests in companies with positive outlooks for the future. They are not attracted to companies that publicly state that they do not know what to do with their money and so they give the money away. Banks meaningfully lower their earnings growth rates when they give their money away and this does not create enthusiasm for their stocks.

In other words, ROE is a useless metric now, something bankFAGS have been fawning over since the beginning of time. Banks aren’t reinvesting in their businesses — because banks are broken.

As an aside, went skiing this weekend and I’ve been investigating a potential serial killer in the neighborhood.

I’ve been nearly forced and against my will, coerced into drinking a “green juice”, every single day for the past two months. It is both very thick and caustic in flavour. I don’t know what is exactly in it. The taste reminds me of a fresh lemon squeezed into a pile of grass and then chopped up lazily in a low powered blender. This, amongst other alternative health remedies, is supposed to provide me with vigor, an elixir of sorts designed to improve my health.

Bear in mind, I did not ask for this, nor do I condone it.

I draw the line at vitamins, nonchalant digestion of pills sought out by health vendors who promise vitality in exchange for obedience. I’d rather die than swallow 5 pill per day, naively being sold on the idea that they work.

On the whole, dying is completely underrated.

In regards to the markets, it appears gold is the standout last week. While all of you cock-gobblers genuflected over the semis — gold made a clean break higher.

As for the overall condition of stocks. The Nasdaq is higher by 7% for the month. If this is 2011 and not 2008, it would not befuddle me to bear witness to another 3% gain next week, followed by a harrowing return to the mean in February.

Be patient. Pick and choose your battles carefully. One day take the green juice and throw it on the ground.

I was the Roger Stone of Wall Street this week, attention whoring and boasting around with flamboyant colors, only to be unceremoniously dispatched in the middle of the night — assets seized, pride dented good and plenty like a speeding hardball into the fender of your bullshit Toyota.

I traded to and fro. After I did that, I did it again. Every turn I tried to make was wrong — ending up in a surprise Jack in the Box knife to my fucking face.

Did I deserve this treatment?

Yes, and much more.

When you’re wrong, you should pay the price. Some pay it with their blood, others with money. Either way, losers will pay, always and severely.

I could bargain on about how this too shall pass and how I’ll get back into the swing of things next week and really knock out the competition. Truthfully, I hope I lose again and again and again and again — until there’s nothing left. Sadly, that is not likely to occur. My affliction is this roach-like persistence to prosper — always riding out the bad times into the sunset of the good. Those days are often coupled with a schizo like frenzied happiness that spills out sloppily onto the blog with tales of space exploration, large dicked gains, time travel, and defeating my many “enemies” until their bones are broken into dust — all showcased with headline photos of statues and exposed genitalia.

I really should see someone about my issues.

Off to wolf down a few cookies and then hop on a call.

Ciao.

I was pulled and thrashed, my weave drawn and yanked into the streets — where I was curb stomped with a mean spirited heave. Selling DRIP and SQQQ was like lifting a weight from around my neck. It was causing me to be angry and greedy. My losses on both positions, each 5% of my overall trading account, was ~8%.

Replacing it, and much more, is the following.

$COUP, $SSNC . $MNK, $INCY, $W, $SEND

Why am I chasing here? What if I’m wrong?

Well, I’ve been wrong plenty of times in my life. I started off wrong, born into the wrong family, in the wrong time period, in there wrong neighborhood, went to the wrong schools and so on and so forth. I’m accustomed to loss, and even expect it. Persevering it what I do best — dealing with the pangs of defeat and punching it directly into its jaw — shattering it to one thousand pieces of bone.

I’m now 70% long in my trading account — 100% long in Quant. I’ve been 100% long in quant forever — and it’s +5% this month, whilst deployed fully defensive in value stocks. The balance of my cash will be used, perhaps errantly, to buy more next week.

I’m looking for a minimum upside in the QQQs of $170, maximum of $175.

This is the new narrative, fucked for brains. The old adage that stocks can’t bottom on Fridays due to a technical malady has been tossed idly into the river and out from it non-stop rallies. One could very easily bargain for prices on Thursday and simply sell them on Friday for free and easy money.

It appears another Trumpster, Roger Stone, has been thrown into the dumpster. If you’re reading this, and also American, take heed to the actors in the movie Bird Box and do not dare gaze at our government officials and never, under any circumstances talk about them. You’re offered zero safe quarter and will, most certainly, become a target for an expeditious de-platforming and imprisonment.

Nowadays, Le Fly ignorantly sashays throughout the markets in a most humorous and clownish demeanor, carefully crafting, in the most artistic of ways, a profile that is both pleasing and entertaining for our overlords.

People look up to The Fly for leadership and qualitative analysis, stock picks bestowed down from the heavens, dispatching the garrulous canaille into the third rail of public opinion — executing enemies with a frenzied malice from which the world has never seen. After I’m finished with my 40 ounce of malted liquor, I intend to crack the bottle over your heads — leave this place a victorious gentleman — whilst profusely drawing from my estate pipe packed with high quality Cavendish.

On this delightful Friday, hailing from a strategically important area of the country, Le Fly bids you a good morning and a most profitable occasion in the equity parlours — fucked faces.

Anyone surprised by two entitled fucked for brains, Trump and Ross, the dynamic duo, displaying a shocking lack of awareness of how the normal folk function? This isn’t really an affront upon these two chaps, who are merely byproducts of their decadent nests that 99% of elites in this country share. The only difference between Trump and someone like Warren Buffett, is a level of narcism that is so great, it’s almost admirable.

And here were the comments from Ross earlier today.

Now I’ve heard many people poke fun at the 800,000 Federal workers for being without pay and frankly that’s just mean spirited. Most are just doing their fucking job, even though we despise them for it. The point is, Trump and Pelosi shouldn’t be playing games with the lives of their underlings. If Trump can’t get funding for the wall, it’s because he played his cards wrong and fucked himself. If he was serious about the god damned well, he would have ordered it built on day one of his administration. Instead, he was dicking around for two years, fucking with the retards in the media and having jerk off contests with N. Korea and China.

If the wall is not built, it is because Trump failed as a negotiator to get it done. Not formidable enough.

I bought UXIN, based upon the theory that Chinese stocks are in the midst of an uncontrollable rage up. I’ll close out the day 50% cash, damaged by the early SOXS debacle, but eagerly optimistic about my future with these fucking Chinese stocks.

I own BILI, PDD, TME, and now UXIN.

The other stock I bought was TLRY and that’s all there is to it.

I’ll hold onto SQQQ and DRIP, for now — in the event of a drop. A lot of weird events transpiring now, which lends to more confusion and could end up fucking a lot of traders trying to place a strong bias with their trades. It seems to me, as we butt up against resistance, but firmly strong, the best option is to trade lightly and with the heart of a coward.

Good day.

This is going to be great. It will be a stick vs stick campaign, both parties jimmying to fuck a subset of the country with zero interest in the lives of beloved Wall Street.

Consider the following narrative.

Vs

If you thought 2016 was a tough year for investors — you haven’t seen anything yet.

Plus there’s this.

In theory, I should not care about FUCKHEADS worth more than $50m getting taxed.

However, the problem being punitive with the very rich is that it aligns you with the poor, who produce zilch. This economy is a trickle down scheme. Nothing of value is produced from the plebs and it’s important that you remember that for the rest of your lives. All you get from the plebs is murder, rape, and complaints. Some of you grew up with silver spoons lodged up your ass. I grew up with the plebs and can tell you, certainly, it’s better to be with the rich.

Now the super rich are another animal. Fuck those guys.

Nevertheless, the battle lines are being drawn and it doesn’t look friendly for the regular Joe Schmo stock trader.

This is what you call a ‘lateral move.’

I went long BILI, PDD, TME, and TLRY. The one thing those stocks have in common is they’re not correlated closely to the whims of the market. The idea, profit whilst everyone else perishes. This is my mission in life.

I still hold ZUO, PG, DRIP, and SQQQ.