You’re Not a Fucking PM

The stocks you’re trading are letters and numbers, nothing more or less. Quit thinking you’re a portfolio manager — listening to calls, overanalyzing shit, wasting time, when the truth is you’re only interested in a swing trade.

Thank God I sold GRUB yesterday. I did so because I didn’t have an edge going into earnings.

Yes, we do this shit all day in Exodus.

Early going I made three moves — stopped out of YGYI for -14%. It blew through my 10% stop. I also sold SQ for a small gain and bought GUSH — which seems counter-intuitive with the market weak. By thoughts are to give market benefit of the doubt until it proves me wrong. We’re plodding along a tight rope in oil now — right at the bottom of the range. I like GUSH for a bounce, but will quickly sell it if the trend worsens.

All of the ingredients are present for a pause, or slight resumption of the previous bear market. Remember, during the 2011 debacle, stocks fell 17%, bounced 11% — then dissipated by 3.5% over the next two months before taking off. After last month’s orgy of buying, at a minimum, we’re overdue some consolidation.

What does this mean?

It means you might need to sell immediately, irrespective of whether you’re up or not. Your cost basis doesn’t matter — bozo — move to cash.

I’ll be taking my own advice this morning — especially with crude and treasury yields dropping. My largest position is NUGT now — which should run a negative correlation to the market — on the cusp, on the bubble, on the verge, of breaking — the fuck — higher.

Futures are -180.

I blew out of GRUB today — made some coin — what else is new. The chart looks phenomenal — but I didn’t want to be in that shit-house for earnings — slated to post in the morning.

Food for thought.

None of you know what you’re doing. You do not analyze fundamentals and you do not have access to Big 4 accounting firm balance sheet analysis and have no idea if your stocks will beat numbers or not.

REMINDER

You’re not investing. You’re trading.

REMINDER

You don’t know more than me. I don’t know more than the market.

REMINDER

When up on a stock, or even down, barreling into earnings — sell it.

Why?

Because you don’t know anything.

What you can control is the manner in which you decide to trade — smart or stupid.

Leaving the outcome of your trade to fate or luck is stupid. You can risk it if you want — sitting atop gains, or feel nihilistic. I sometimes do it. But speaking to many of you the past year, getting to know your struggles — you have no business holding stocks into earnings — especially after a healthy and bright run in stocks.

Now go to bed.

Gold is vacillating between a very tight range — and on the cusp of breaking a 5 year resistance level. Earlier this afternoon, Yellen said the Fed’s next move might be to cut, instead of hike. At a minimum, this is misinformation. But in the event this were to be true, you can rest assured, gold will fantastically break higher and eclipse the highs enjoyed in 2012, some 40% from here.

“Of course it’s possible. If global growth really weakens and that spills over to the United States where financial conditions tighten more and we do see a weakening in the U.S. eonomy, it’s certainly possible that the next move is a cut,” she said. “But both outcomes are possible.

Top picks: NUGT, GRUB, ESTC

UPDATE: I sold GRUB, +4.6% — not holding this shit into earnings.

I need to get out of the God damned house for an hour or two. Working from home certainly has its advantages, with the only real disadvantage being it fucking sucks. Stuck in the house, away from the civil world, unencumbered by the vapid and disgusting conversations that could be happening with intelligent life — instead entreated to a diverse world of looking after dogs and scheming ahead for dinner. Now that I’ve taken to cooking, I find my life to be very similar to, dare I say, a house wife.

Emasculating? Perhaps. Then again, I’ve always been comfortable inside of my skin.

Boring is more like it. The repetitious cadence of hearing the plumbing whizz throughout the house — and seeing how the afternoon light casts off the scales and recoils — makes me want to bash my brains against the wall and out.

I’m sufficiently entertained with my online ‘persona’. I could only imagine how dreadful life would be without it. What do work at home Dads do when they cannot find conversation amongst a common minded folk online? Do they simply whither away into dust and go bizarrely insane?

Don’t talk to me about the fucking markets. I’m the fuck — out of here.

See you in a few.

PS: I’m not actually going out to do anything fun. As a matter of fact, I’m going to the grocery store. F-M-L.

Just as I thought, crude made a move and it was higher — buoying stocks — causing a sharp rally. Will it last? The fuck do I know?

I bought some COHR — because MUH lasers. Also, I bought PTI — because I like money.

Semis are strong AF today and I don’t have the heart to short anything here. But I also cannot buy much more.

Time to eat a sandwich.

I sold SSNC, HUYA, YEXT, and ZYNE for mixed bag of nuts. With some of the proceeds, I weighed into NUGT and made my position magnanimous — a 15% holding — maximum for me.

I want to buy inverse ETFs, conduct ritualistic sacrifices inside the Grande Druid Lodge, and oversee the markets dive back into misery. But that’s just me reflecting my own disapproval with my current state of affairs. Knowing this, I am going to remain in cash and permit the market to go down a day or two before acting.

Cannabis stocks are cracking under the pressure of a grande stupidity infectious to those who smoke blunts during the evening and buy securities in the day. The people who are long pot stocks are, mostly, the dumbest people on the face of the planet. This is a small side effect of cannabis — a deleterious raping of the mind by a drug being marketed as a cure-all for any ailment presently trending across the healthcare community.

Need a heart transplant?

No problem — smoke some pot and you won’t need one. The heart will heal itself.

Look you, I don’t have time for this shit. Let’s just agree on one salient point.

NO ONE IS WATCHING GOLD. You should be watching it. You should also look at the chart, really look at it. LOOK AT IT.

Boring morning, except for crude plodding along the bottom of its recent range.

Truth is, while markets are strong and biased to trade higher, if crude breaks lower again — the rally will dissipate and it won’t be long until people start worrying about the fucking junk bond market again.

I have a few things to sell this morning — underperforming assets. I’ll likely move them to cash and wait for resolution.

If this is 2011 and not 2008, then we’re on track to reach the highs of October by April of 2019.

Then

Now

It’s pointless to make predictions about the fundies. All I can point to is divergence between oil and junk bonds, with the former dropping and HYG not giving a fuck — moving higher with stocks. Bullish. And then you have the effervescent feeling of brightness creeping back into the narrative. It felt gloomy last month and I don’t feel that way anymore — and I’m a very doomful person.

How we get there.

+7.5% over the next two months. It won’t happen gradually, but all of a sudden. We’re likely to consolidate until Apple gives us the nod for Q2. Then and only then will we breach the former highs. In the after-hours, one of my favorite SAAS stocks, ZEN, crushed and even SNAP is enjoying the bull market.

How are we doing in Exodus?

The Pelican Room is the best damn stock forum in America. Give it a try — advanced mathematical algos and data for free — you god damned misers.

I’m offensive, granted, very offensive. But political talk will not be tolerated in Exodus. Please refrain from doing so.

As we anticipate a bullish spring, we’ll keep minding the charts and be on the lookouts for those dastardly big ass black candles (BBC).

I sold AMRS for a 26% DAY TRADE — you fucking ingrates. When was the last time you did anything like that? I have a bunch of irons in the fire — stocks readying to jimmy higher. You can bet against stocks if you want; and you can also kill yourselves too.

But why do it?

There are so many better ways to lose money or die. You can spend the money buying nice homes and then turning those homes into fucking junkyards, much to the chagrin of your neighbors. Instead of killing yourself, why not become RAMBO — travel to a war zone of choice and pursue your dream to save the world from tyranny in your homemade Captain America suit?

The gains, at this point, are perverse. We’re simply running the path of least resistance. Look for another 2% up and then grind.

Top picks: ESTC, REZI, YEXT, TLRY.

I have more — but you’ll need to join the league gentlemen inside Exodus to find out.