Clown Slapping On You Fools

My trades today: $SEEL +42%, $TNXP +45%, $TVIX +17%, $TZA +13%, +SOXS +8%, $TROV +5.5%, $PULM +29%,$TENX +10%, $SELB -12%, $SNSS -2%, $CYCC -10%.

Hedges in place: LABD, DRIP and I am long gold via NUGT.

Gold is back on track.

Overall, spectacular week. Zero complaints. Terrific wins, believe me. Gonna do it again next week. For those interested, I’m in the process of writing my third book, non-related to the other two stories I published. This one is going to be about blogging in 2008, showcasing my blogs here, backstory, comments from you fuckers — my chart art, side vignettes, discussions with clients etc. So far, I’m having fun with it. It might be ready by summer.

NOTE: I bought LPTX for the weekend lotto.

+29% booked — day trade.

Everything else is going. How about some god damned ethanol? I’ve been waiting for this to move for two weeks.

Booked TVIX +17%, TZA +13% and SOXS +8%.

Still short biotech via LABD an oil via DRIP.

UPDATE: Sold TENX +13% (day trade), sold SELB -12% (day trade), sold SNSS -2%, sold VNRX -7%, sold CYCC -10%.

UPDATE: I doubled down on TROV, reducing basis to $7.2 and then sold entire amount at $7.60 for 5.5% win. All trade done in real time inside Exodus.

Moral of the story — playing with biotech bombs is not always seamless.

Biotech lotto bombs aside, where is the overall direction of the market heading next? Are today’s jobs numbers more important than AMKR saying, about a month ago, that their unit shipments to Apple were -30% into year end? I think not.

The jobs report is a lagging indicator, but it becomes very real to Main Street when they’re reported. Sometimes the things we already knew become more serious once reported upon officially — such as a Lehman or a Bear bankruptcy. We all knew it’d happen. And when it did — it rocked markets.

I think it’s important to moderate opinions until we hear some guidance out of Apple. I really do think it’s that important. In the interim, book profits whenever you can and try not to get lured back into stocks on a Friday after a wretched jobs report, coupled with sharply lower crude and weakness in the junk bond market.

Still interested in gambling, I bought CYCC and SBOT. I know…crazy.

Also, with wage growth at 3.4%, I like gold again. I bought NUGT and to bet against oil — DRIP.

Update: I bought SELB, TENX and PULM too.

We were supposed to add 180k jobs in February, but only managed 20k.

Wage growth, however, was strong — bullish for inflation and gold.

Dean Baker weighs in.

#jobsreport modest acceleration in wage growth to 3.4 percent over last year, 3.3 percent taking average of last 3 months with prior 3 months

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport drop in involuntary part-time lowered U-6 unemployment to 7.3 percent, new low for recovery

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport big fall in aggregate hours, we're below December level — more cause for concern than February jobs numbers, but bad weather could have been a factor

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

#JobsReport Involuntary part-time employment plunges more than reversing January rise. Now below pre-recession lows as share of employment

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2019

What does this mean?

It means the slowdown heading into 2019, with an absolute plunge in semiconductor orders, as evidenced by the recent beige book report, affected employment in February. SHOCKER.

Recession? Hard to tell. The Atlanta Fed is estimating just 0.3% GDP growth for Q1. Is this being priced into stocks?

It all depends on how the second half of 2019 will look. If things look to be getting better, the market will reflect that optimism and ignore the present weakness. But if we get some negative news, namely from Apple, then markets need to correct.

For now, trade the tape, not the news.

Booked pre-market gains on both, +42% and +45%, respectively. SEEL had been at $7.25 earlier this morning and faded hard, so I booked it at $5.25.

I have a few other small biotechs, looking at others for opening tick, generally pleased with market dispirit and looking forward to increasing my returns via TVIX, SOXS and TZA.

Imagine yourself to be a slab of fat meat. Now image there is a giant fucking meat grinder spinning away with sparks shooting out of its sides — creaking and bowing, eagerly waiting to shred something. Now imagine tomorrow’s jobs report as being the boot that kicks your sloppy ass into said grinder — finished for good.

We’ve come a long way since Xmas and the bulls have gotten very fat. They’re obnoxious and deserving of the meat grinder — because they’re not good people and they don’t know what’s coming.

A great storm is just around the bend. It will rip everything from root to crown, leaving a heaving mess of ruins — tumult.

I’d like to see you get through it; but first, UPGRADE TO ANNUAL.

Everything I’ve done and gone through has led me to this point, the ephemeral moment when everything counts — nothing taken for granted — zero betrayals and only dignity and honor to fall back upon when things get hard.

Top picks are fluid and momentary. Join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus to find out.

The dollar is soaring against the Euro.

Yen is higher.

Bonds are higher, as yields tank.

Listen to me now — the only thing preventing this market from totally dislocating is oil. If oil was lower by 3% or more today, we’d fully break, cleanly and brightly, down by 500+

Meanwhile, I continue buying POS biotechs. I just bought SEEL. Why? No idea. We’re playing all of these stocks in Exodus today.

Presently, I am most confident in my TVIX, SOXS, and TZA — but I’m also hoping for some negative correlation against the market with SEEL, TNXP, and SNSS.