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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Credit Suisse Plunges to Lowest Level Since 1991

Shares of CS are getting hammered on wider than expected losses, generally playing themselves in the biggest way possible.

“We have a clear strategy, clearly we are implementing it in difficult markets and our outlook for the first quarter remains very cautious,” Thiam told an analyst call.

“(We have) very unique market conditions and they are challenging, but fundamentally we are maintaining the objectives and the targets we have presented”.

Four months on from when Thiam set out his strategy, many analysts are still unsure how Credit Suisse will hit growth targets, which include more than doubling Asia Pacific pretax income by 2018.

The bank posted a 2015 net loss of 2.94 billion Swiss francs ($2.92 billion), worse than the median estimate of a 2.12 billion loss in a Reuters poll.

It booked a goodwill impairment charge of 3.8 billion francs in the fourth quarter as a result of the new strategic direction Thiam is pursuing.

The impairment was mostly related to the acquisition of U.S. investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in 2000, it said.
The lender said it saw net outflows of funds in two of its three main wealth management divisions during the period, though it target market of Asia Pacific was the exception.
Rival UBS this week announced its best annual results since 2010 although it also saw an outflow of funds and weakening margins at its flagship wealth management business.

JP Morgan Cazenove analysts called Credit Suisse’s results “very messy”, noting an underlying loss before tax versus market expectations of a profit. The bank’s common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.4 percent also lagged consensus even after a 6 billion franc capital raising last year, it noted.

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Doctor Copper Higher for 10th Time in Past 13 Trading Sessions

Do not concern yourselves with the fact that European indices are well off their highs, or that our futures have been walking down the past 2 hours (I never sleep. I am omnipresent).

The physician of the stock market, Dr. Copper, is telling you to chill. Everything is going to be alright.

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The head physician in Doctor Copper’s hospital is Dr. Freeport McMoran. He’s been in surgery all week, removing the brains of his patients. The stock has been recovering and might be digging itself out of a scary debt crisis hole.

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You are just a layman. These gentlemen are trained physicians. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the capital gains that will come.

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A Brief Update on the Luxurious Lifestyle of Martin Shkreli

According to court documents today, Martin’s E-trade account has plummeted by 90%, or $41 million, to a mere $4 million.

Granted, this pittance of $4 million is more than what 99% of people on planet earth will earn in their lifetimes; it may pose as an issue for his freedom, however, as his $5 million bail was secured against the value of his account.

His attorney, Benjamin Brafman, who will likely take the balance of the account for his time defending Marty, said they’d figure out ways to supplement the account–if need be.

That is all.

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Schiff: ‘This Recession is Going to Be Greater than 2008’

This is some seriously funny shit. After watching this video, I felt like drowning myself in a vat of pigs grease. In classic form, Schiff lays waste to the token bull, who doesn’t seem to know or understand how to contain this bearish animal on the war-path making outrageous, yet logical, conclusions.

This is bear porn if I’ve ever seen it. It has everything a burlap wearing, blue blazer, gent would expect from a man whose sole purpose in life is to oversee the complete destruction of civilization as a whole, just so that he could say “I told you so.”

Stocks will go way down.

Bubble, bubble, bubble.

Bear market.

We’re in a recession.

Economy has been decimated.

This will be way worse than 2008.

People are living with their parents (lolz).

U.S. rates will be negative and lower than europe.

Throwing gasoline on a fire.

It goes on and on and on.

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Aberdeen CEO: ‘Sovereign Wealth Funds Were Set Up For a Rainy Day-that Rainy Day Has Arrived’

Fund managers are ‘enjoying’ elephantine redemption claims, many of which are emanating from the east. They set up wealth funds to prepare for a rainy day. According to the CEO of Aberdeen Investments, who endured $13.2 billion in redemption claims in the fourth quarter alone, sovereign wealth funds are under pressure due to oil and have been pulling money out of the market. Back in November, the head golfer in chief at Aberdeen, Martin Gilbert, said 2016 would be rough sledding if oil persisted in the $45-50 range. Now that oil is in the low $30’s, I am certain he wants to shoot himself out from a carnivale cannon.

“Sovereign wealth funds were set up for a rainy day and that rainy day has arrived,” Aberdeen CEO Martin Gilbert said on a conference call in January.

Franklin Resources were the biggest losers, shedding more than $20 billion in the fourth quarter (a new record, congrats assholes!), most of which were in passive funds–the sort of bullshit that loses people large swaths of cash when markets get tough.

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The winners were Blackrock and Doubleline, adding an astounding $152 billion and $54 billion in 2015, respectively–both for totally different reasons. Blackrock has an array of ETFs and products that help investors hedge out or gain exposure to safe-haven products, whereas Doubleline is run by Jeffrey Gundlach, boss of all bosses, outspoken opponent of the retarded U.S. Federal Reserve.

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Asian Markets Are Mixed; European Futures are Looking Robust

The corrupt Shanghai is higher by 1.1% and the Hang Seng is up 1.5%–providing Asian investors with a calm normality–like the awkward silence after being beaten to a complete pulp.

On the loss column are the Japanese, with the NIKKEI lower by 0.3%.

DAX futures are indicating a bare knuckled punch to the jaw to short sellers, up 1.8%. S&P futures are higher by 12 and crude is up 1%.

It’s looking like a risk on session.

Year to date, the worst performing markets are: Shanghai-20%, FTSE MIB -18.7%, IBEX 35 -13% and the DAX -12%.

On the plus side: BIST 100 +3%, IDX composite +1.5%, IPC +0.65%.

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The Rationale Behind Negative Rates

Over $5.5 trillion in bonds are trading with negative yields. The media will tell you a dozen reason as to why Ireland, and for the love of God, Italy deserve to trade with negative yields; but none of them can see the forest through the trees like I can.

Seema Moody tries to make sense of it, but fails to grasp what it truly taking place here.

It’s the end of the world, mates.

Might I introduce you to a Mr. Devil Dog to explain the current situation we find ourselves in?

Indeud.

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Breakeven Cost Analysis for Oil in Texas

Bloomberg did some digging into what the breakeven points for extracting oil in Texas were and the Eagleford shale came out a winner. These fuckers aren’t interested in shutting in wells. Instead, they’re shifting to lower cost well sites and scheming up ways to produce with lower costs.

We will be swimming in oil for the foreseeable future.

Some Eagleford Shale plays include CHK, SN, JPEP, DVN, CRZO, MTDR, PXD, COG and SM.

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GoPro Misses Earnings, Issues Clownish Guidance, Sticks With Absurd Buyback Program

Nick Woodman is a ridiculous caricature of a person. As CEO of GPRO, he’s done nothing but sell out of his stock and live high off the hog, as his companies shares plunged 90% from its highs. After the bell, the retarded camera maker, announced sales and guidance that were so bad; they were funny.

GoPro prelim Q4 ($0.08) vs $0.03 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $436.6 mln vs $448.56 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

GoPro sees Q1 revs $160-180 mln vs $300.67 mln Capital IQ Consensus; FY16 rev $1.35-1.50 bln vs. $1.63 bln consensus

Woodman

“In 2015, we recorded 16% year-over-year revenue growth and the fourth quarter represented the second highest revenue quarter in the company’s history,” said GoPro Founder and CEO, Nicholas Woodman. “However, growth slowed in the second half of the year and we recognize the need to develop software solutions that make it easier for our customers to offload, access and edit their GoPro content.”

So they admit that their strategy sucked. Maybe Nick Woodman, son of the founder of Robertson Stephens, was too busy on his new yacht, than to hatch up some new growth strategies.

Nevertheless, the company forges ahead with its meaningless share buyback program. For the love of Christ, the company is barely out of the IPO gates. There shouldn’t be a need to buy back shares so soon. They are admitting failure. They’re unable to grow and have resorted to smoke and mirrors as a way to buoy the earnings and stock. Well guess what, fucked faces, your guidance represents a 45% decline in sales. Therefore, you just bought back $35 million worth of stock into a maelstrom of earnings decline. In other words, not only are you down $10-20 million on your share buybacks; but your operating losses will now look worse with less shares outstanding.

Commencing in the fourth quarter of 2015, GoPro has acquired approximately 1.5 million shares of its Class A capital stock at an average price per share of approximately $23.05, representing a total share repurchase of approximately $35.6 million through December 31, 2015. The Company has a remaining share repurchase authorization of $264.4 million. GoPro ended 2015 with cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities totaling $474 million, an increase of approximately $52 million from year end 2014.

Nick Woodman doesn’t deserve a job.

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I’m Bringing the Ark in For Renovations

It looked like the floods were rising this morning and I needed to float the ark, sail to whereabouts unknown. But the waters have receded and the panic has lessened. Even still, there are great risks to this tape and I believe a large TLT position is warranted. Therefore, ergo, I am inexorably long TLT and expanding the size of my ark.

The dollar suffered its worst single day draw down in 7 years. As a result, bonds sold off too–denting the ark to the tune of 1%. Stocks are higher by 175, yet only 60% of them are actually in the black.

Today wasn’t a day to rejoice. It was a day to be grateful for being alive–given an opportunity to board the ark, alongside all of the zebras, cobras and parrots– before it sails off again the next time the floods rise.

Because when it does rise, the waters will be 10,000 feet deep, immersing everything in a deadly briny cocktail that will send us back to the dark ages.

Happy trading.

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