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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Savages: Mexican Police Kill 9 Teachers, Injuring Scores, During Protests

The benevolent people from Mexico are killing protesters again. Such a civil society of people should be permitted to arrive inside our Eden, unfettered, without restriction.

In the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, a deadly police crackdown against teachers has left nine people dead and more than 100 wounded. On Sunday, police descended on teachers in the community of Nochixtlán, where they had set up blockades to protest against neoliberal education reform and the arrests of two teachers’ union leaders last week on what protesters say are trumped-up charges. “As soon as they arrived, they began to attack. And we were few, very few,” said a Oaxacan teacher. “Then we started running. But they began to attack right away, instantly. At no time did they give warning to clear the area.” We go to Oaxaca to speak with Gustavo Esteva, founder of the Universidad de la Tierra in Oaxaca and author of many books, including “New Forms of Revolution.”

Here’s one of many videos circulating on Youtube, demonstrating the civility of the fucking Mexican government.

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California Bills Man $143 For Bottle of Water, After Saving Family from Car Wreck

This is what happens when you staff government with brainless fucking morons, who are unable to use common sense and instead follows ‘the law’ because the state says so. A man broke a windshield, rescuing a family. When the ambulance arrived, he asked one of the assholes for a bottle of water to clean his hands. Because of that, the state of California sent him a bill for $143, for a fucking bottle of water.

$143

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Shares of $BBBY Drop to a Fresh 52 Week Low After Earnings Miss

Shares of BBBY are lower by more than 4% in the after-hours, extending its precipitous drop of more than 40% over the past year after announcing the horrendous business model they’ve surrounded themselves with, predicated on Green Mountain K-Cup and iRobot thousand dollar robotic mop sales, is retarded. To be honest, I’ve always hated this store. Each time I’ve entered it, my allergies kicked in and I found myself sneezing on merchandise for the next 20 minutes.

Having said that, this company is a cash cow. Valuations haven’t been this low for at least a decade, currently trading at 8.5x earnings and 0.55x sales, more than 66% lower than the gogo days of 2012.

Nevertheless, the trend is lower.

BBBY

Bed Bath & Beyond misses by $0.06, misses on revs; guides FY17 EPS in-line; same store comps -0.5% (43.18 -0.15)

Reports Q1 (May) earnings of $0.80 per share, $0.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.86; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $2.74 bln, below consensus of $2.78 bln.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY17, sees EPS comfortably in the range it has earned over last several years during a heavy investment phase of $4.50-5.00 vs. $4.98 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Same store sale decline -0.5%. Comparable sales from customer-facing digital channels grew in excess of 20% while comp sales from stores declined in the low single-digit percentage range.

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Shares of $BKS Run Higher After Reporting Abysmal Earnings

Try to figure this one out. BKS is higher by 6% in the after-hours after reporting worse than expected results for both the bottom and top line. Comps for their stores fell by 1%, while Nook sales plunged in the magnitude of 20%.

Perhaps investors are stoked around the idea of the launch of 10 concept stores set to launch. Or, maybe they just like to buy dips in stocks who just reported abysmal earnings.

Reports Q4 (Apr) loss of $0.42 per share, $0.18 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.24); revenues fell 3.7% year/year to $876.7 mln vs the $879.23 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

Comparable store sales declined 0.8% for the quarter and were flat for the full year, in-line with Company guidance. “Core” comparable store sales, which exclude sales of NOOK products, declined 0.8% for the quarter, while increasing 0.4% for the full year, slightly below expectations of an ~1% increase. Sales for both the quarter and the year were also impacted by store closures and lower online sales.

NOOK sales, which include digital content, devices and accessories, were $42.0 million for the quarter and $191.5 million for the full year, decreasing 20.0% and 27.4%, respectively, due primarily to lower device and content sales.

“We believe our marketing, merchandising and Membership initiatives will lead to increased traffic and conversion in our stores. We are also excited about our plans to open four new concept stores opening later this year, beginning with the first store opening this October in Eastchester, NY. We look forward to discussing these initiatives at our Investor Day.”

For fiscal year 2017, the co expects comparable bookstore sales to be ~flat to an increase of ~1%. The Company also expects full year consolidated EBITDA to be in a range of $200-250 mln, with Retail EBITDA of $240-280 million and NOOK EBITDA losses declining to a range of $30-40 million, including previously announced transitional costs.

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Markets Close Near the Lows, As BREXIT Vote Looms

It was a fairly low volume, beguiling tape, as traders sit on their thumbs ahead of tomorrow’s BREXIT vote. Absentee, summering, hedge fund managers are probably instructing their junior traders to go to cash and avoid risk, else feel the end of their lash.

Personally, I have no idea where the vote will land. All I know is that it’s a red herring, a distraction from the true underlying issues plaguing markets.

Nevertheless, markets will be on edge tomorrow, on this momentous occasion–which is probably the most important referendum post WW2.

Top picks: The Ark, Gold.

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U.S. Set to Impose Heavy Duties On Chinese Steel Imports

It looks like D. Trump isn’t the only one interested in protectionist policies. I find what’s taking place in the steel industry supremely important to the facade of free trade, that, seemingly, goes just one way. For years, U.S. steel workers have been crucified by asshole Chinese dumping tactics, which drove scores of producers out of business. Apparently, the Chinese went too far and the United States is responding, in kind.

The FT is reporting the U.S. is set to impose a gangster 500% tariff on Chinese steel.

Via FT:

Wednesday’s ruling by the International Trade Commission, an independent government agency, follows a recommendation by the US Commerce Department in May for heavy duties to be imposed on imports of cold-rolled steel products from China and Japan.

The anti-dumping case brought by the US industry last year is one of three that Washington is considering this summer and comes amid a growing row between the US and China over steel, reports Shawn Donnan in Washington.

It also comes as the EU is considering whether to bow to Beijing’s demands and grant it “market economy” status in the World Trade Organisation.

The issue is a hugely popular one in rust belt states, particularly in an election year.

Senator Rob Portman, who is fighting a tough battle for re-election in Ohio, claimed on Wednesday that his testimony to the ITC had helped secure the ruling.

“Ohio steelworkers produce the highest quality steel in the world, and yet they are facing a crisis,” said Portman. “Nearly 1,500 Ohio steelworkers were laid off last year through no fault of their own. Today the ITC recognized exactly what I told them: that unfair, dishonest practices from competitors in China and Japan are hurting our communities. Today’s ruling is the next step in leveling the playing field, and it is a big win for Ohio steelworkers.”

This is net benefit for X, NUE, AKS, NUE and STLD.

NOTE: X is one of my 15 GARP portfolio stocks for the second half of 2016, based around this very thesis.

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Traders Sop Up Black Swan Event $SPY Contracts, Betting on an Imminent Market Crash

I like this crash bet. Only the good Lord and baby Jesus know where stocks will end up on Friday, following a possible BREXIT. The very idea of England messing up the globalist apple card is enough to drive G. Soros insane, let alone tank the British pound again. There could be extreme pressures asserted onto markets, which may, in fact, force the British government to ignore the will of the people, for the good of the people.

Traders are throwing powerball bets at the SPY, betting on imminent catastrophe, something venerably delightful to yours truly. Odds are these contracts will expire worthless, just like the euro, eventually. But for now, like a lotto ticket, the allure of turning a 100,000% profit on a weekly SPY put contract, betting on a 20% market drop, is what dreams are made from.

CRASH

Consider one S&P 500 contract that would move in the money should the index plunge 20 percent to 1,675 by Friday. Open interest in the put has doubled and is now the second highest of any bearish weekly contract tracked by Bloomberg. “It’s a black swan type of put,” said Steve Sosnick of Timber Hill LLC. “It’s very possible there will be an extreme result, and people like to have insurance against a low-probability, high-outcome event.”

Here is this week’s option montage and the next. Keep note of the lunatic(s) who’ve positioned into $135 puts.

weekly

nextweek

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A Look at the Markets Over the Past Two Weeks

Stocks have held their ground over the past two weeks, in spite of the BREXIT fears and subsequent haranguing by our Federal Reserve. However, somewhat under the edifice of the market is widespread deterioration in a variety of industries.

I’d like to highlight some of the low lights for your right now.

Tankers -12%
Airlines -9%
Biotech -7%
Hospitals -6%
Insurance -5.5%
Residential Construction -4.5%
Gold -4.5%
Indie Oil and Gas -3.6%

The upside is littered with nothing more than boring utility stocks and antiquated memory chip manufacturers.

My Bubble Basket of high growth/risk stock was off by 5%, while my Old Man portfolio of stodgy, cranky, stocks was down just 0.22%–in line with bonds.

If we are to be true servants and slaves to the trend, it is clearly stating that you should be positioned accordingly.

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My Space Shuttle Time Machine is Entirely Grim, Predicts Great Doom and Plumes of Black Smoke

Some of us don’t guess for a living. There are certain truths to this world, indelible facts that correspond neatly between wanton success and failure. Having conversed with so many of you over the years, bearing witness to the folly that you call ‘asset management’ or ‘trading’, I can confidently say that you have no idea, whatsoever, what you’re doing.

Having seen the incompetence of my fellow financial advisors, first hand, for more than 18 years in the business, I felt it was incumbent upon me to assist them, for the sake of their clients. Hence, Exodus was created.

Right now, it is flagging OVERSOLD on these ETFs, all of the inverse varietal, spelling out a great doom that beckons just around the bend.

OS

You’ve been warned.

NOTE: If any of you are members and want a live demo, email me.

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