This is the perfect sort of post you send to a friend and laugh at the author for being such a fucking idiot, as to buy in “at the top.” This, of course, is predicated upon the idea that said author, is in fact an imbecile without a specific skillset of banking coin in market. One might surmise a recency bias in the authors trades and conclude a pervasive and infallible trend, when in fact, over a long time frame, this is counter-reality and not a good indicator at all.
What I am getting at, in no uncertain terms, is this:
Bet against “The Fly”, lose your house, kids, cars, job etc. Your whole shit will get wrecked.
I bought the following:
bot $SPOT, $GRUB, $SQ, $FTNT, $SCWX
Largest holding is NUGT. Riskest plays: DTEA, JVA, APHA.
It’s a lot to accept and I’m more than okay for you to fade this call. Truth is, life is a series of pre-meditated gambles. Might as well move like a bitch on the pussies who can’t hold their butter.
Shorts have been annihilated. I expect another BIG WHITE CANDLE on the Nasdaq tomorrow.
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Fucking idiot.
Although PMs should continue to do well. And oil may be poised for a squirt higher.
Today’s action definitely “feels” like a blow-off top. Of course, I’ve been skeptical of this rally since we were 10% lower, so who knows?
Lot of skeptics out there. We probably go higher.
I’m bearish in sentiment, neutral in money.
One note on Powell: he *did* jump on the “asset inflation doesn’t matter” bus today.
This feels like the late, late ’90s
Good economy? Check.
Overpriced stocks? Check.
Bullish momentum? Check.
No way in hell we make new ATHs in 2019, but we may be a few weeks until the next drop. Not really sure about timing but think about March:
– Hard brexit odds near 70% (IMHO)
– China deal supposed to be done (still ahven’t heard any *confirmed i nwriting* good news) or trade war escalates with more tariffs
– Tea Party Republicans try to avoid paying when the bill is due (Debt ceiling)
The fact that this Fed would do what it had to to keep asset prices high – just like the Yellen and Bernanke Feds did – was reveled to us unwashed today. But I do not assume that the Fed’s employers heard the news at the same time we did.
That this is a distribute-on-the-“news” event is my operating conspiracy theory and a topping process may play out over the coming days …marginally new highs as the already-declining mo continues.
I love this kind of market.
So- what do you think? S&P 3100? Too low?
Wait until all you blow off toppers see Amazon report tomorrow and nuke you into oblivion. By the way, you can’t have a blow off top nearly 10% below the top.
The Lourdes have spoken. The bull shall live.
Yesterday I was down 2%, by noon today I was up 12%, then a blast as Powell spoke magic words, my account shot up 26% took profits, still holding, aa, apa, fcx, bmy, intc, msft, fb, wdc, and xop. its not over until fat lady sings (LABU) .
BTW. The present S&P 500 P/E average since 1998 is about- average.
Granted, that is a little cherry picked. But still.
Another BTW. In case someone gives a fuck. I was buy UVXY with VIX 16-18. Revising to 15-17.
Been thinking about this (as i posted), and your post reminded me: just bought at ~54, and will buy more if VIX drops below 15.7
And what the hell got into silver?