I stepped in like a man and made HUBS a triple sized position, cost basis is now $125.
Also, I bought TWLO, who is going to report earnings tonight. I did so because I don’t give a fuck.
Related: Mongo has busted loose from its cage and is now rampaging throughout the city. $MDB
NOTE: I don’t give a fuck.
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Many of you thought it would be Google, even more thought it’d be Amazon. Several years ago, a whole lot of you thought Samsung phones were cool. You were all wrong. Samsung phone are nonsense and Apple beat everyone to $1 trillion.
This is a post to commemorate, celebrate, and to pay homage to the greatest retail and electronics company the world has ever known. The halcyon dreams of the late Steve Jobs have trans morphed into a gigantic business, the largest ever, while also pleasing countless people with their great devices and customer service.
We are going with $203.45 as the price at which $AAPL hits $1 trillion in market cap (despite what you may have read elsewhere.)
(via @peterschack) @CNBC
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 1, 2018
One would presume the law of large numbers would’ve kicked in a long time ago; but miraculously, and this is a testament to Tim Cook and the entire AAPL team, they’ve kept growing and the share price has rewarded investors handsomely.
Look at that sales ramp.
1 TRILLION DOLLARS $AAPL pic.twitter.com/f0oSpd4uC2
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 2, 2018
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I bet you investment advisors out there are chimping out over this disruption in the status quo. You should embrace the change, even if you disagree with it. The only people who should loathe this change are those with $100 million + in the bank. Everyone else should be viewing this disruption as an opportunity to catch up.
When the markets crashed in 2008, now knowing what we know now, it was the greatest buying opportunity of a lifetime. Fortunes were made and lost. Back during the dot com era, solemnly watching our monitors remove our net worth from the marketplace, we viewed the disruption with animosity — a horrible reset that crushed our progress. If we’re lucky, we’ll get one more chance to make a great fortune in the markets and if that is going to happen, it sure as hell won’t happen from all-time highs — with AMZN fag-lording near $2,000 per share.
We need blood and carnage, and also more blood. Let the sellers sell and the buyers go away. After the cinders have smoldered long enough, we will step in and dust off the treasures and place them into our purses (no homo).
Admittedly, that was fantasy blogging. Nasdaq is down 20. Giant nothing-burgers abound. I have ~45% cash now — staying small for the balance of the summer — looking for deals.
DEVELOPING…
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Chinese stocks are getting smoked out, off by more than 3%. Some believe it has something to do with Trump fixing to bankrupt China with new tariffs, others believe it has something to do with Chin’a politburo saying it would ‘resolutely curb’ housing prices. Property developer stocks are off by nearly 4% and the index is now lower by 41% for 2018.
Over in Hong Kong, the indices have been poleaxed into dust, lower by 2.5%. The NIKKEI, -1%.
Dow futs are off by 0.3% and the Eurotrash, -0.40%.
It’s all bullshit, believe me. We have the best markets and we’re going to have the best deals and the best trading partners. Many people believe, from what I’m told, markets will go up in a big way.
I just got back from a fun filled day of driving thru NYC traffic and then visiting family in Brooklyn. After the close, HUBS smoked on the top line, but missed on the bottom. They guided up and the numbers look great. However, the stock retreated by 8% in the after-hours — because retards seem to think SAAS companies give a shit about net income. All that matters is the top line. This company is smoking hot on all cylinders — buy dips.
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I knew the markets didn’t feel right and now those feelings are manifesting themselves across a wide spectrum of robots who control prices. Stocks are diving lower again and if Apple wasn’t so strong, the Nasdaq would be firmly in the red.
Meanwhile China related commodities, both copper and oil, are getting CRUSHED — with the former fairing worse — lower by 3%.
I do not fret the exalted status of this trade war, because it will only leads to more wins. It’s stupid and childish, but I believe in the power of 3d intergalactic space checkers and what it portends for equities.
The Federal Reserve is the real enemy of the people, even worse than the “free press”; but we’re stuck with both of them, so we might as well trade around them.
I find myself driving in a very fast car heading into a field of flames, double long HUBS into earnings tonight. A gentler, more cautious, man would refrain from speeding up into the flames; but I doused my car with gasoline and have decided that the wind from the speed of the car will be so furious, so fantastical, it will extinquish all of the flames by itself. In the event I am wrong and HUBS forget how to repeat its business and all of their data scientists were wrong, I shall perish in the fires a happy man — doing what I love most.
God speed. Wish me luck!
Mr. Forty Percent Cash Drama King, Le Fly
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Nice day so far, especially for me. Overall, the market is not doing much, other than jerk Tim Cook’s noodle.
Exodus Quant posted a +2.25% return for July, slightly hampered by the rotation shift out of small caps into large. If you’re not paying attention, that’s what happened. As a result, for August, I am now allocated into mega cap stocks — companies valued at more than $100b. The portfolio has been purchased and is now live inside the platform.
Additionally, thanks to the zeal provided by the ZEN beat, I am more than confident in my HUBS position. I doubled up on it and made it a 10% position.
Lastly, I want to believe the Chinese burritos are primed to move. I am long IQ and hopeful the gains will continue. I wanted to add to my exposure to the space, without having to chase something, so I bought BITA. Stop is well defined at ~24. It’s heavily shorted and trending higher, so I’m thinking this fucker is poised to break the fuck out to the upside soon.
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Any questions?
China said on Wednesday that “blackmail” wouldn’t work and that it would hit back if the United States takes further steps hindering trade, as the Trump administration considers slapping a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The proposal would increase the potential tariff rate from 10 percent the administration had initially put forward on July 10 for that wave of duties in a bid to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions, a source familiar with the plan said on Tuesday.
The tariffs target thousands of Chinese imports, including food products, chemicals, steel and aluminum and consumer goods ranging from dog food, furniture and carpets to car tires, bicycles, and baseball gloves and beauty products.
While the duties would not be imposed until after a period of public comment, raising the proposed level to 25 percent would escalate the already bitter trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.
The math is simple here. Trump is creating drama from which he can become queen. He takes said crisis and then solves it — hence making him an American hero. This is retard level diplomacy — but is the essence of “the art of the deal.”
Meanwhile back on earth, Le Fly scored a win to offset a series of unfortunate events in ZEN. I have no reason to be cocky over a singular victory — but I’ll probably do it anyway — because why the hell not?
I have an uneasy feeling about Apple racing towards $1 trillion market cap, people somewhat ebullient about the market bouncing, and the news flow — which is dreadful.
Cash levels are still ~50% and I’ll be reshuffling the chairs on the decks of my Quant portfolio today — switching over to mega-caps. Remember to tell all of your friends and family, even retarded cousins, about FreeStockAlgos.com.
See you inside Exodus.
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Both IQ and ZEN are slated to report earnings tonight. I don’t give a shit and have supreme confidence in ZEN to rig their earnings in a most repeatable way. They are, without question, one of the hottest companies in SAAS now. I see no reason why they should miss, unless of course they’re having personnel issues — which can easily be fixed.
Today’s market was okay. Truth be told, I expected a lot worse yesterday and a lot more this afternoon. I need to realign my expectations with reality.
Here’s why I’m somewhat optimistic about the market, especially tech, near term. This is our predictive oscillator in Exodus — the algorithms that I always talk about. Here they are in chart form for the tech sector and application software.
If you want your stocks graded, feel free to access our algos free from charge at FreeStockAlgos.com. Bear with me as I self-promote from time to time.
NOTE: Today is the final day of July, which means tomorrow the Exodus Quant undergoes a face lift. By the looks of it, the portfolio will be fully liquidated and replaced with a new market cap quintile. Start a 7 day free trial today and gain access to the picks tomorrow morning.
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The stock has performed admirably over the past year — but now people are deathly ill from eating from the restaurant again and this affliction could number in the hundreds. There isn’t a chance in fat hell this goes away in a day.
PREPARE FOR A MOST ARDUOUS SUMMER, BURRITOFAGS.
Chipotle told CNBC Tuesday morning that the health department received two illness complaints, but by Tuesday afternoon the Delaware General Health District reported receiving “over 100 calls and climbing.”
Delaware Health said it is “currently investigating several possible food-borne illness reports stemming from Chipotle on Sawmill Road [in Powell].” It has also asked that people who have experienced symptoms reach out to the Communicable Disease Team.
A Chipotle spokesperson wasn’t immediately available to comment on the latest report from the health department.
On Monday night, Chipotle spokeswoman Laurie Schalow described the scope of the issue as “a handful of illness reports at one restaurant in Powell, OH.” And added, “We acted quickly and closed this single restaurant out of an abundance of caution and we are working with the local health officials to reopen this restaurant as soon as possible.”
But now there is the possibility that this outbreak is larger than initially believed.
While Baird analyst David Tarantino maintained his outperform rating for the brand Monday, he said consumer sentiment and traffic to other Chipotle restaurants could take a hit if the incident remains in the media spotlight for too long.
“While we are optimistic that the media coverage of the Ohio restaurant closing will prove to be short-lived and ultimately result in an immaterial event for the brand, the lack of visibility creates a new risk factor that is worth monitoring very closely (in our opinion), and based on that dynamic, we would be more patient in putting new money to work in CMG in the short run,” Tarantino wrote in a note to investors Monday.
This is the death-knell — the moment in time that marked the end of the franchise once famously known as Chipotle. The brand has been tarnished beyond repair and is now synonymous with being a house of ill repute.
Curious what Exodus thinks about CMG — access grading system free of charge at FreeStockAlgos.com
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Last year I wrote and published two short stories about my time coming up and down in the business. In hindsight, I don’t know what the fuck came over me to bargain I could write books — as I found the process both exhilarating and incredibly obtuse; but it reminded me of yesteryear and how I always pressed the pedal all the way down when approaching bull markets. I rarely exhibited restraint, which I’ve found is something that is acquired, like a bad taste, as one ages.
In many ways, I’m the same person as I was in 2000, impulsive and brave, careless, and deliberate in my approach to maximize returns. My one deviation has been to allocate 75% of my investable assets into a quantitative strategy, far away from my direct day to day management. I’ve found this to be a blessing, as it permits me to run roughshod with my active account.
That being said, on the news that President Trump won the trade war for the fifth consecutive time, I kicked out of SQQQ for a 2% loss and TZA for a 4% win. With the proceeds and some of the cash allocated on the sidelines — I bought the following stocks.
RNG, ZEN, HUBS, TEAM and IQ.
5 positons totalling ~30% of my assets — leaving me with roughly 50% cash. Although I’m buying into a melt up, I find it hard to refrain from buying dips in SAAS. I know there are those who believe this sector is rife with excess and due for a severe downturn. In the event markets fail, I’ll stop out. But for now, I’m betting on a continuation of this initial bounce — as the headline news improves on the China-US trade front.
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