Ah yes, mere days have passed since the most recent spate of stock exchange bliss, and once again the demise of society is imminent.  Nevertheless, The PPT would like to have a word with you and it would like for you to listen…very quietly.

A number of ETF’s are giving signals that have historically preceded violent moves counter to the most recent price action.

What this means is that I will be watching the behavior of these ETF’s tomorrow to position myself for a rally over the next 3-7 days.  You pikers can dig through your couch cushions for the $1/day to see what I mean.

Unless you daytrade, the open is, without a fucking doubt, the dumbest time of day to concern yourself with the stock market.  There is good reason it is referenced as “amateur hour”.

I would say that 75% of my stupidest trades(and there are MANY), were made within the first hour of the day.  I try to make a point to not even look at my positions until after 10AM EST.  If I do, I know that I have too much risk on the table and the likelihood of doing something stupid is exponentially higher.

Just look at today.

How many people bought into that gap, not wanting to be left behind, only to see their positions bleed equity into the market the entire day?

Gaps, up or down, are particularly egregious in this regard.  I fucking hate gaps, unless they occur in the form of a buyout of a stock in which I am long…that I can live with.  Otherwise, they make my life much more difficult.

Since the US stock exchanges are basically tethered to what happens in Europe, the frequency of gaps (up and down) over the past year or so seems to be much higher than in the past.  Granted, this is an off-the-cuff bullshit observation based on nothing but conjecture, but I also wouldn’t be at all surprised if it held true.  Add in a strong dose of Costanza, and trying to figure this shit out gets that much more difficult.

I apologize for my lack of transparency as of late, but I finally have an office set up following my cross-country move.  My trading portfolio, by size looks like this (% of assets):

$MO (30.8), $RGR (12.5), $SAVE (8.4), $THLD (5.2), $BPL (4.2), $ARMH (4.1), $XOM AUG 85 Calls (2.8), cash (32).

Over the course of my move, I have reduced my positions in $THLD (significantly…taking profits at 3 different places), $SAVE and $RGR.

I will continue to let my $MO position ride and will even look to add to my position whenever The PPT tells me it’s time.  After dividends my cost basis for this beast is in the 23-24 range, so I’m very comfortable with this right now.

My best to you all.

-EM