Cover Up That Visa Short At the Breakfast Table

To follow-up on a trade I have posted on this blog previously, I covered a chunk of my Visa short inside 12631 just now for about a 10-point win from my original entry.

Visa has been a monster, multi-year winner, and is of course a dominant global brand.

However, the stock had also not tested its 200-day moving average since 2011, which is behind ridiculous at this point. With the stock coming within pennies of doing so this morning, I took the liberty to cover up most of it here.

In the interim, I expect bounces to be sold.

What are you trading this morning?

_________________________________________________________________

 

Comments »

The following is just a small excerpt from my latest Weekly Strategy Session (please click on that hyperlink for details about trying it out). which I published for members and 12631 subscribers this past Sunday. 

Given our analysis of the soft commodity complex late-last year and earlier this year, I would be remiss not to follow-up on the space now that they have consolidated the initial rally. The explosive rally off multi-year lows has taken some time to digest. Of course, the issue for us was the nature of the correction–We did not want to see the lion’s share of recent gains erased.

Instead, the hallmark of sustained rally or even new bull market for the softs would be to see them consolidate in a fairly benign manner before resuming the next leg higher.

Observing the daily chart for the DBA, ETF for the ags/softs, you can see a narrowing consolidation without much price giveback, relative to the prior advance. This is exactly the type of action bulls want to see. A close over $29 now sets in motion the next leg higher, with $27 likely needing to hold below as support.

Corn, coffee, sugar, and soybeans represent the most appealing long ideas on strength, seen on their daily ETN and fund charts. 

 

Please click here to continue reading

Comments »

For you night owls out there, here is the daily chart for the country ETF of Japan.

I still think there is a serious risk of a major bull-to-beae reversal brewing here since the run-up last year.

What say you about the land of the rising sun?

Speak your mind, night owls.

____________________________________________________________

Comments »

With the semiconductor sector ETF daily chart printing a sizable bearish engulfing candle on Friday, on heavy sell volume to boot, I would be looking at shorting semis like INTC TXN here, among others. Downside confirmation, of course, is going to be key for the trade thesis to work. Aggressive traders can also look at SOXS as a triple-levered short ETF of the sector.

And if we see a broad market bounce, Zillow has held up very well relatively.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

___________________________________________________________

Comments »

Once gain, a big congratulations and tip of the hat to one of the OG’s of “Name That Chart, @StockCats, for correctly guessing the mystery chart from my last post.

As @StockCats noted, the chart was a monthly chart of The Hershey Company.

Specifically, here is what @StockCats had to say:

OK, it’s definitely HSY The Hershey Company – the sector is listed as Consumer Goods but we all know they make candy. A pullback to the low to mid 90′s is probably buyable as there is no reason to assume the uptrend is broken unless we see it is.

Pardon me for breaking my own rule earlier “one does not simply guess at name that chart”. It won’t happen again.

…actually in the past a few posters that “guessed” helped lead me to the correct answer. Chess, in his diabolical wisdom usually ties the chart to “a theme” of some sort. My “guess” is this time it’s Easter.

My take: After a steep uptrend the company is vulnerable to weakness, especially if soft commodity input prices like sugar and cocoa continue to rise this year.

What do you think?

Earnings are scheduled for April 24th.

Thank you to everyone who played.

I will be back after midnight with ideas for Monday.

But I already gave tight analysis in my latest Weekly Strategy Session published, earlier today. Check it out!

______________________________________________________________

Comments »

Hint this week: Monthly chart dating back to 2002.

Try to guess:

1. The ticker symbol of the chart;
2. The sector in which the stock trades; and
3. Whether or not you think the stock will move higher or lower throughout 2014 or will break lower.

Thank you to everyone who has been playing along.

Please click on chart to enlarge

[Members: My latest Weekly Strategy Session has been published]

________________________________________________________________

 

 

Comments »