I closed out the rest of my Visa short inside 12631 this afternoon. But AXP is still on the books, after I took some gains in the short earlier today.
Credit cards remain in focus on the short side for me, into weak bounces this week.
See you after the closing bell for my video market recap.
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As per the trade I posted on Friday on this blog and inside 12631, here is a note I just made to members:
Sold final piece of $UVXY here @ $62.20 from $58.76 entry to lock in the rest of the win.
I have other bearish bets on now, shorting individual stocks. So, I am going to stalk another entry into the volatility ETF’s if and when the opportunity presents itself.
Into the final hour, bulls are trying some type of bounce. However, I still see way too many traders more obsessed with timing a snapback rally than they are playing for further downside.
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I have taken a few stabs at a GM short in recent months, as the stock teased major $34 support.
A basic tenet of technical analysis is that the more times a well-defined level of support is probed, the more likely it is to eventually give way.
And when we update the daily General Motors chart, you can see how $34 has come into play for a while now.
When you consider the pinched Bollinger Bands, almost assuredly presaging (finally) the big directional move, I am short this one again, just noted inside 12631. My cover-stop is above $36.
If my thesis proves correction, the downside move should make the trade worth the risk, and then some.
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Inside 12631 just now, I covered up a decent amount of my AXP SBUX shorts for a few points each, dating back to last week.
As for the broad market, looking at the S&P on an intraday basis there remains considerable risk for a trend day lower into the close.
We probably should see some type of bounce or consolidation here. But knowing your timeframe is key, since the rallies have thus far been nothing resembling what we saw in 2013.
With energy stocks coming in a bit here after perhaps being crowded short-term, keep an eye on large, integrated names like COP CVX XOM for shorts.
Drop me your top afternoon ideas.
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The sell-off in the small cap ETF, seen below on the hourly timeframe zoomed-out, suggests an undershoot of prior support.
You can also plainly see the waterfall effect since last Friday morning’s vicious fade of the nonfarm payrolls number pop.
As a result, we could now easily see a bounce or consolidation. Then again, that may be too obvious or expected, which is just one reason why I am not interested in playing it. I still think there is risk of another washout into the end of the day.
Still, if we do get that bounce I would look at the $114 area to provide overhead supply.
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I am betting against the rails in a major way, at the moment. With the likes of Canadian Pacific breaking down after its recent bounce, I expect the strong holdouts like Union Pacific to succumb not just to broad market pressures, but also the apparent failed breakout in the Dow Jones Transportation Average last week.
Elsewhere, even with the biotechs green today as a sector, keep an eye on Gilead as a short under $72.
Note the bear flag on the daily chart, below, threatening another leg down.
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