iBankCoin
Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,253 Blog Posts

Disclaimer: I AM LONG THIS STOCK

Going into the long weekend, I think you got to have $NNVC on your radar. Nanoviricides, ticker symbol NNVC, is the leader when it comes to the COVID-19, aka the corona virus stocks. Similar to how bitcoin is the leader for Alt. Coins. NNVC was the first to move, and move bigly. The other virus stocks take cues from NNVC.

We basically have proof that China is lying on the number of people infected by this virus. We also have confirmation that the virus can be spread without showing symptoms. Either this COVID-19 is “Just the flu” or something worse. The action in stocks today said that this is “just the flu”.

We will know soon how serious this is, likely by the time we come back on Tuesday. While we wait, I’ll be hiding out in $NNVC.

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Under $7, and the trade likely becomes a bust. Make sure you have your stops in place and plans for position sizing should we get another stock offering, diluting shares.

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6 comments

  1. numbersgame

    Given how cantagious COVAD-19 is (R0 2-3 range), it is a much bigger threat than the flu. I don’t see how we won’t have outbreaks outside China, priamrily Africa but also the US. The CDC says the same thing. The question is not *if*, but when.

    Of course, *when* is fundamentally important for investors, primarily on 3 fronts:
    1) when will the epidemic in China end,
    2) when will the next sizable (100+ people) outbreak hit, and
    3) when will a vaccine be developed.

    The outbreak is much larger tharn SARS, and not as lethal as MERS, which means that it will probably hang around rural areas of China for several years. However, once a vaccine and solid cure are developed, it will be a much smaller threat than the flu, even if it is never eradicated.

    China is continuing to esclate their response:
    “Under the new rules, most Wuhan residents will be allowed to leave residential compounds only for medical care…It wasn’t immediately clear from the statement how Wuhan’s residents would be able to get food or other supplies…Under the new rules, some neighborhoods will be barricaded off to keep people from getting in or out, and non-residents won’t be able to enter neighborhoods that aren’t theirs.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/u-s-ramps-up-criticism-hubei-data-awaited-virus-update

    That doesn’t sound like a country that has control of the situation.

    *******Ie did some research directly at the NNVC company. Here are some key takeaways:
    1) The company has been around for 15 years, yet they have **zero** current products. They do have 1 product in testing, for shingles.
    2) The products they design are *cures* not vaccines/innocualtions
    3) They have some shady history http://www.teribuhl.com/2013/10/30/biotech-firm-nanovircidies-sued-for-executives-abuse-of-assets/

    Given #3 and the long history of the comapny, I assume that their announcements are probably more hype than substance, in general. More importantly, **if** they are successful, their market will be for **cures**, but by the tiem they are out of testing and development **someone else will have already developed a vaccine**, massively shrinkign the potentential market for a cure in the first place.

    Of course, investors rarely do research, so this company could easily spike again on negative COVAD-19 news. However, this stock is only good for a trade, and I don’t see anything in their history that woudl lead me to belive that any cahnge in the long-term trend of their stock (down from an ATH of $179, with plenty of parabolic spikes and crashes)

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    • RaginCajun

      We are talking short term trade. I’ll be out by Tuesday. Most virus plays are trash, the moves can be rewarding if you time them right.

      Added some MJ & SOXS for next week.

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      • Moosh

        Lol, props to you RC…this easily could have been a STFU, then you went above and beyond

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        • numbersgame

          STFU, really Moosh?
          1) if someone *respectfully* disagrees, then there’s no reason to be an @ss about it.
          2) you can’t predict the future, and so a dickish, arrogant response make you look foolish if things don’t work out like you thought (case in point, NNVC is -14% in the two days since I posted)

          RC,
          I respect the trade. Given the COVAD-19 news, I would have expected virus stocks to rise and tech stocks to fall. Irrationality and optimism rule the day.

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  2. ashindde

    RC, any thoughts on USO? Looks like it is trying to get a footing after an extreme selloff

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    • RaginCajun

      I think we will get another move higher before its all said and done. I like the idea of buying names like $SLB on this dip, get paid to wait for a recovery in prices.

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