Chicanery on the Via Dollar-rosa

 

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It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on.   Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site.  I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.

That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all.  Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:

Well, what really happened, then?  Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning,  from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour. 

Was that all for the dollar today?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions. 

 I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did.   It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half… 

We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing. 

Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.

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Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:

I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you.   Best to all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdXryyFw7No 450 300]

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(It’s Good to Know all I have to do is post a bizarre header and I’ll still get the comments ball rolling… BTW — I got the name of the McMurtry Book I thought I was quoting wrong.  Fixed now.)

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Yesterday, Monsieur Le Docteur asked, rhetorically, how I cope with the spleen-twisting nature of the silver markets during this bull.  Well now, let my secret be revealed:

It’s mid-80’s Billy Ocean that gets me through the day when I’m feeling low or apphrehensive.

Because there’s nothing like low budget George Lucas knockoffs set to a syncopated pop-reggae beat to get one’s spirits back in order, is there?

Anyway, I consulted by Crystal Ball du Fibonacci last night, and came away with a good news/bad news scenario in terms of near-to-mid term predictions.  First the “bad news” mid-term with the weeklies, for a longer range prediction:

Sorry, but I just can’t help think that trend line (purple, above) will not come back into play before we really get moving again.  

That doesn’t mean, however, that we can’t make some hay while the sun shines.  Here’s the daily to keep an eye on some near term targets:

So trade lithely, here, but with a razor sharp dagger.  And remember, if you get to feeling kind of bluesy, you are only one spin of Caribbean Queen away from a return to bliss.

Best to you all.

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*Note* — this was supposed to go out last night, but my posts would not save in this W-Press format last night.  My apologies.

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This good morn, I have my good squire– Ser Hasty Bottome– buckling on the last of my plate, including bascinet, gorget, grieves and curaisse.   I plan to wait out what appears to be an approaching “incident” in said plate and helm, thereby preventing my good-self from the whistling death of a well-placed morning starre or broad-axe.

Many of  you know that I use the Trannies as my dog-whistle “tell” for approaching calamity, and whilst I cannot make for certain if what approaches is the blackest of knights (sic) or the fairest of maidens, I can tell you that Ser Tran of Sporte is signaling some change in the air for us all.  Behold, yon daily rollover:

It seems quite certain that Ser Tran’s destrier hath overrun the 20-day EMA which bodes increasing dire that we shall meet once again with yon 50-day EMA (as noted) or werse!

Note the confluence of the 200-day EMA with yonder long term support line.  Coincidence, methinks?   Not verily, when one considers the weekly scrolls of magery:

Oh, blackest Wizard of Fibonacci!  What ill spells do you cast that thou longest term resistance foretells an imminent roll-over in Ser Tran of Sporte’s valiant charge? 

(turns away, bites gauntlet in shuddering grief)

And fie upon you, as yon monthly Parchment of Peregrination proves all too lucidly that your wizardly tricks have truly brought us to the final flourish of the “V” —  whether for Valiant Victory or Vanquished Villein (sic) is not yet clear.   I do believe the monthly provides ample targets for lance, bow and blade, however.  Behold!

Yon weekly and monthly parchments may yet tell the tale, my favoured small folk.   Be wise with your food stores and be ready to run to the safety of your lord’s keep should this ceiling be formidable in the near term.  Ser Tran’s level of 5,000 looks to be first tidings should we fall here.

Be well.

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Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

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I figured I’d throw out a rare intra-day post this morning to let you know exactly what I’m looking at to determine my next moves here.   As you may have guessed, my position will largely be dictated by the action of the dollar here as it struggles to emerge from a months long death spiral — whether temporarily or not.  

What will determine that decision in the near term will be the dollar’s actions as it approaches it’s long term cap — the 50-day EMA.  Notice how that line has served to knock the dollar back, even on strong  rebounds like the one we’ve witnessed this last week or so? 

Now, even if the dollar does break that 50-day EMA at $75.22, I think it’s rather unlikely that it will get much farther than the descending 200-day EMA above it at around $78.00.

 What I don’t want to do, however,  is wait around with overweighted positions in silver miners and AGQ while it decided to redescend.   I have enough budding gray hairs from my kids, thanks very much.

So the plan will be to cut back to about a 40% position across the board in the event of a dollar breach of the 50-day.  I will likely get rid of most if not all of my AGQ, though I may keep a stub position just to keep an eye on it.  Again, I may have a lot more slack in that position than you do, so mind your own risk at your acceptable levels.

Keep in mind also that I told the Monsieur at the end of last week, via private correspondance, that I wholly expected a retest of the lows in the silver miners in order to prove  this a more substantial rebound than the “V” we’ve seen thus far.  

That doesn’t mean it’s not hard to watch, of course.   Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLJ8ILIE780 450 300]

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No time to indulge the chicken livers now, lads!

That’s right, buck up, stiff upper crumpets and all that.  Cheerio, wot?  Seriously, silver has broken back over $39 this evening, and if that number holds, I think we see further retrace into next week. Gold is also doing quite nicely at over $1520.

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Tomorrow’s top choices… XG and BAA.

Sure, they are obscure, but so was Jude, and look at that great song the Beatles wrote about him.

Also, the rare earth metals are being purchased again.  Yesterday MCP was getting big “buying on weakness” attention.  I like AVL and QSURF here — especially the latter.

Best to you.

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