Meanwhile, Back in Metropolis…

Perfect Place for “Multiple Sammitches”
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As I mentioned last comment (previous post), I’m on the road again.  I might even grab Fleremy tonight for a Cavalcade of Past Haunts Tour.

Does Dorian’s Red Hand even exist anymore?  Howabout Skibar?  Anyway, no matter.  The point of today’s post is that I remain hunkered down, eating sammitches, preferably of the pastrami-variety, monster-portion-sized, a la the Carnegie Deli.

By now you should all be in the 25-40% of “core” range, depending on your risk preferences, unless you are H50, in which case you have converted everything into cash, including house and lawn mower, rolled said cash into a Yuban coffee can, and hidden said can deep within the moist jungles of Kauai.

As I said, we all have our risk tolerances.

Today, I’m watching with popcorn in hand as Bernanke hectors Congress for his magic water pistol and the Greeks turn their tourist trade into so much half chewed souvlaki-on-a-cheese wheel.   As a result, the bizarro dollar continues to strengthen even as gold and silver march up along side it.

One has to win, and I hate to admit that I think it will likely be the hideous dollar, if only because we are owed a serious bounce here, and we’ve yet to get it.

So for now, hunkering is appropriate, but don’t be afraid to throw a scalp out there every now and again.   After all, what’s the market good for if you can’t play around in times like these?

Best to you all.

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The above was imported via Firefox on WordPress’s “HTML” image box.

The above was typed using the “Visual” image box.  And the rest was italicized in that same mode.

Check.

Does Bold work too?

Check!

Let’s try to import a picture on Visual… Maybe my latest Stock Charts markup of silver?

Voila!  She is working again!

Firefox (and Jeremy!) you are my saviour!

Bill Gates and Young Frankenstein Ballmer, I spit on your tunics! Stop giving your money away… you will need it to re-invest in non-Ballzed Upware.

Feh! Feh! Upon you both!

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First tip off to a problem? No Jennifer Tilly in sight…

This saga began when Mrs. Gint “won” a silent auction… Now, if you are in a business where you auction things for a living—or if you happen to be a big Game Theory Economics geek– then you know about something called “The Winner’s Curse.” The skinny of it is if you have won a competitive auction, it’s pretty likely you’ve paid too much.

For this tale, we shall file that last under “Fugging A Right You Did!”

Our primary problem was Mrs. Gint had bid with insufficient information – a frequent error that often leads to the Winner’s Curse, as illustrated in cases of willy-nilly Chinese burrito stock purchasing and alcohol-inspired shotgun marriages.

You see, my wife had her heart set on checking out the new French Lick, Indiana casino resort that one of her friends had raved to her about. Mrs. Gint is all about the “spa experience” – from hot stone Rolfing to deep-mud Brasilian manicuring — and this French Lick resort not only had the original historic West Baden Springs Spa element (famed from the 19th century on for its healing mineral waters and baths), but also promised biking, hiking and horse-back riding—activities dear to the heart of my Kentucky belle. The real cherry, however, and what had elicited all the buzz down in Lotus-ville Hen circles, was that the entire facility had very recently been given a massively expensive facelift. Mr. William Cook, the now-deceased medical device tycoon of Cook Medical, put almost half a billion of his own dough into reviving this historic area, and apparently, his overinvestment had been well employed.

Those of you who live in the area have probably already guessed the nature of my troubles. For those who are not familiar, however, let me point out that the state of Indiana has distributed a number of casino permits over the last 20 or so years… only the most recent has been to my belle’s targeted destination in Larry Bird’s home town.
What’s more, the state started into the casino business with the very low “toe-in” class euphemistically referred to as “river boat gaming.” Not actually functioning boats, these barnacles still dot our Ohio river coast at various godforsaken embarkation points, thanks to Indiana politicians’ belief that calling a crappy casino a “boat” will somehow limit said institution’s size and influence on the gambling crazed public. Need I even mention that as soon as those same pols saw the cash coming off these oversized sardine cans, they said “Would it be cool if we just called them boats, cemented them to the river docks and let them gradually grow into mini-Vegases on the river?”

Part of the problem of the above noted “expansion” was that many of these unsightly river-wights added hotels and “spa facilities,” the description of which might confuse the unfamiliar prospect as to their true nature: riverside robbery dens for the discount cigarette set.

So I ask… can you blame Mrs. Gint for not knowing her way around the casino resort heirarchy? Or for perhaps having one too many bourbon and cokes the night of that fateful charity event? Or for not being able to parse one fake-Ancient Greek casino name from another? I know I can’t…

Though I certainly came close this past weekend…
(to be continued…)

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We remain precipitously oversold, but there seems to be no catalyst to snap the PM’s out of their torpor. What’s more, the dollar seems to be trying to find a bottom here as well.

Either that, or it’s just screwing with me.

Whatever, the case, we should be moving down into our 25%-40% core positions while hording our cash covetously for the inevitable return to glory. There may be a commodity wide move coming here if the dollar is truly done, so you may want to look at hedging with some puts or short commodity ETF’s. I have not done so yet, but will be looking at that prospect tomorrow.

Hang in there, we’re not through with this bull yet.

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Nothing much moved today on the PM side as the market collectively held it’s breath waiting for The Bernank’s do-nothing address. That speech, in turn, resulted in a massive shrug of the shoulders after market close today.

There’s some chop back and forth and further attempts upon my person in the form of certain “Chicken-playing” PM stocks (ahem, AAU and EXK, damn you!). These stocks attempt to force me off the road by driving straight at me at 110 mph, whilst drunk on Old Crowe whiskey.

I will not be moved by such crude tactics, and I continue to beleive there will be a bounce in the metal sectors collectively. Action in the minor metals like palladium and platinum are betraying this new direction, and even copper is showing stubborn signs of staying about $4.00.

In the meantime, dollar strength is seemingly being abetted by a weak Ozzie Dollah and Canuckistanian Looney. That too simply cannot be the basis for a dollar rip, so sorry. Not for the long term at least.

So just check yesterday’s chart for tomorrow’s action, as nothing looks very different. On another note, you may want to inspect the FAS-mobile tomorrow as well, as it looks like banks may be ready to roll once again.

Best to you all.
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We are either going to bounce hard here, or we are going to be cast into a pit of molten lava, where blood and bone will be cooked to a fine carbon gristle with extra smoke.

And I’m talking about both the SPY and the PM’s here. Both experienced a Bollinger Band crash (violation of the lower Bollinger) and both should rebound here in the next week, at least to the midpoint. In the case of the Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) that probably means the 200-day EMA.

Here’s the $HUI weekly, which clearly illustrates the return to the October breakout. We break here, and we’ll be headed for that long term support line down in the 500 area first:

Now the daily, with the Bollinger Band illustrations:

Does that look like it’s done to you? Me neither, which tells me if we do get a bounce it’ll likely be later morning tomorrow.

Whatever the case, I believe that unless I see evidence of us getting back over that 200-day EMA (above), I will be bringing my core all the way down to 25%, which will be my bull market low point. You should already be at 50%, give or take, in your PM concentrations. This is simply the next step down in raising cash for the coming wave forward.

I don’t know what it means for the SPY, but I don’t expect there’s much left in that rope either, if the dollar continues to strengthen and the financials and commodities continue to get clipped.

On the brighter side, however, I will note that while things look bleak, copper prices have held up well. Our own miners were hurt by today’s rumor of a Marxist nationalization effort in Peru. Such rumors give me good reason to keep my mining holdings in NAFTA countries alone. We are not being paid to take nation-risk here people. Look to Canada, Nevada and Mexico for your long term core holdings.

Last, I say look to sentiment. The last time Fly and I were this conditionally apocaplyptic, the market took off in a blaze of glory. Hell, even Gary Savage is hiding in Switzerland right now. Be strong for me, my friends.