A Lesson in Econ 101

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc 450 300]

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Apparently, crack U.S. Special Forces stumbled on JP Morgan’s “lost tonnes” of silver bars whilst cashing in our un-paid receivable with now soundly-dead Osama Bin Hydin’.  This seems the only plausible explanation of the coincident 10% drop in the price of silver last night right as the news of Osama’s involuntary cranial ventilation was breaking. 

Kudo’s to President Barack, by the way, who appears to have begun smoking some of that Bushitlerian war-monger crack and can’t seem to get enough of the rock.   In other stunning news, the vicious San Franciscite anti-war harridans of Code Pink have summarily renamed themselves “Code Ah, It’s Okay,” while long respected gold star mother media queen Cindy Sheehan has unveiled a new website in honor of her President’s recent actions called “If-It’s-Brown-Shoot-It-Down.com.”

Whether or not PETA President Ingrid Newkirk’s newly sponsored Western Kentucky Squirrel Hunt/Democrat Fund Raiser and the Sierra Club’s latest bumper sticker “Yellowstone is for Coal Mining” are further evidence of a sea change in liberal sentiment has yet to be determined.

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Despite silver’s no Chinaman low volume sell-off last night, it appears there’s little changed in the direction of the dollar.  What’s more, it looks like gold isn’t even taking the temporary detour that earl, the CRB and silver took last night upon news of Osama’s fatal lobotomy. 

Now I’ve told you about silver being waaaay over it’s 200-day EMA, and that’s why we were switching our focus to gold for now.   This sell-off, however, may give  you an opportunity to play a couple of broken silver miners.  You know I like SLW and EXK the best (both of whom look to be off at least 5% in pre-market), but I also think AG is “catchable” here, (I still have low bids in on that one) and even AGQ may be a play, if an extremely short term one.   Only mess with that last if you are determined to watch it, because it should be swinging big here this week.  Right now it’s down over 10% in the pre-market, which is too much.

On the golds, I continue to like AAU, RGLD and XG.  Also, watch IVN, which has call sellers betting against it, but which could short squozen at any time.

On another note, it’s Derby Week, so I will be trying to talk a little bit about the ponies for the fans.  Do recognize, however, that this is one of my busiest weeks, so let’s keep the comment section hopping and I’ll try to reply from the Crack wherever I may be.

Best to you all, and Happy Osama is Deceased Day!

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No, not that balding ponce, you tossy sods, but Prince Amukamara, the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year and 6’0″ 219 lb. (eleven stone!) shut down cornerback out of Nebraska, who was wed to the glorious and never diminishing New York Giants Football organization last evening as their 2011 Number One Draft Choice.

And no, you across-the-pond and Eurostanian wankers, not that commie “football,” either, but rather the real thing, with tackling that is encouraged and smiled upon, rather than rewarded with flimsy red cards from referees with tight shorts and no hats.

And let it be known, that in my capacity as the #1 Giant Fan Financial Blogger in the Known Universe, I bestow my blessing on this union (though perhaps not on the NFL Players Union) as a “good match” and for the Giants organization amplify that description by naming it  “a great catch.”  

You see, this kid was supposed to be a top ten draft pick, and I even saw one mock draft that had him going at #6.   There was a tiny bit of hair on him, I guess, given that he enjoyed 5 interceptions in his junior year whilst garnering zero this year.   That can readily be ascribed to quarterbacks never daring to throw in his direction this year, and his largely acknowledged “shut down” reputation, which connotes that the receivers he guarded never caught anything either.  

All that said, I concur 100% with Giant GM Jerry Reese in his assessment that a good defense can “never have enough pass rushers or quality cornerbacks.”   Let’s face it, thanks to TV machinations and wholesale rule changes designed to boost ratings, the NFL has become a passing game.  Despite that tendency in offensive schemes, the old adage that “Defense wins Superbowls” holds true to this day.  Therefore, marrying the two realities, one can only conclude that having superior athletes that can shut down the passing, either by sacking or air-tight coverage (and one can often lead to the other) imperative.

Therefore, I welcome the Prince (he really is a Prince, allegedly, though I doubt you’ll be seeing his nuptials on the E! Network anytime soon) with open arms and great hopes that he will enter the lists — along with Emlen Tunnel, Spider Lockhart, Mark Haynes and Mark Collins— of great Giant defensive backs from this day henceforth.

So shall it be written, so shall it be done.  Amen.

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As for the PM trades, the dollar appears to be continuing to flag bearishly, so I am continuing to be opportunstic in my “fishing.”  I actually grabbed a starter position in AG yesterday afternoon (announced first in The PPT) at $21.33.   I also opened a speculative position in SLW (to augment my stock position) by again purchasing the June $35.00 calls at a price just a hair below $7.15 a contract.

On the gold side, I continue to like ANV and AAU, the former for its relative strength and the latter for it’s takeover possibilities.

I continue to keep in place my lower bids for EXK, AG and AGQ for “just in case” fishing purposes, but I’m not really expecting to get much of those filled.  Fact is, the dollar continues to look sickly here, and I think any bounces at this point will continue to be of the deceased feline variety.
Best to you all.

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Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.

Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:

Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support.  I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.

Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn.  Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals.   In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.

Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV.  Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?

Pretty measured flag and pop formation right?   Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here?  Not me:

I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers.   As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos.  Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks.  Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?

Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:

Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you?  Me neither.    

Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce.   Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names.   My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:

Go get ’em, tigers.  

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Amazing how quickly everyone is willing to attest to the death of the king, no?  You would think that after ten years now, some would be willing to give this bull the benefit of the doubt.   Instead, we’ve got closet morticians coming out of the woodwork and stretching their yellow tape measures in anticipation of parsing out a pine coffin.

I say, “not so fast, dealers in embalming juice.”  Who gave you leave to drag out these corpses, anyway?   A quick once-over with the infrared scope will tell you they are merely sleeping.  What’s more, a more practiced eye will tell you when to climb back on their dorsal fins and flukes, ready to ride the great beasts to glory.   And yes, I have some suggestions…

The first–XG — may be ready right now.   By the bright scimitar of Kirby Puckett, it is my #1 pick a the moment, despite Jeremy and Fly’s steady refusal to feature it in The PPT.  No matter, just look at the fight in this young monster:

As you may note, that recovery candle could very well signify that XG is back and off to the races.  My next two are not yet as ready, but in my mind offer some very appetizing entry possibilities in coming days.   As they are crowd favourites (sic), you should feel favoured (sic):

Here is a stock– AG —  that was trading over $27 in the most remarkable bull of the 21st century.   And you might be able to get it at almost a 30% discount?  Remember to give alms if you are so favoured, sir.

Last, is our lovely grandmama, RGLD, which may allow us entry into her cookie pantry at a most opportune price.  Be on your best behaviour (sic) and she may deliver you a choice Tollhouse, or three:

Consider these next few days a rolling Christmas Eve for gimlet-eyed adults.   Just remember to stay off the rum toddies so you’re not caught nodding.

Best to you all.

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It’s raining cats and dogs here, and the drowned goats are accumulating on the banks of the river.

Time to start accumulating said goats for want of a strong spiced jerky that will carry you through the latter days when the Bernank’s stricken peso won’t even be exchangeable for a handful of magic beans.   Do you have your targets set?   I have mine.

Go ahead, put an order in for SLW at $38.00, and maybe some AGQ at $295 and some EXK at $10.30.   Who knows? You could get lucky.  Or you could get sad.   You can miss by a nickel on either side of the stanchion.   But what fun would life be with no chance, no uncertainty?

Whatever the case, I will be waiting and watching during this pullback.  Like an otter stalking an adder, I’ll be waiting for some opportune moments to rebuild my EXK/SLW/AGQ positions.   I also think that RGLD will come exactly back to the $55-56 breakout level from which it recently launched.  The ANVil may even return to the lower 30’s for those who missed it last time.

What opportunity awaits those Quakers who have missed so much over the last glorious month.  Even if you were never a fan, there will be opportunity for you to laugh with the bull very soon.

Very soon.

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Special Sunday Devotional…

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 Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good;
   his love endures forever.

 ² Let Israel say:
   “His love endures forever.”
³ Let the house of Aaron say:
   “His love endures forever.”
⁴ Let those who fear the LORD say:
   “His love endures forever.”

 ⁵ When hard pressed, I cried to the LORD;
   he brought me into a spacious place.
⁶ The LORD is with me; I will not be afraid.
   What can mere mortals do to me?
⁷ The LORD is with me; he is my helper.
   I look in triumph on my enemies.

 ⁸ It is better to take refuge in the LORD
   than to trust in humans.
⁹ It is better to take refuge in the LORD
   than to trust in princes.
¹⁰ All the nations surrounded me,
   but in the name of the LORD I cut them down.
¹¹ They surrounded me on every side,
   but in the name of the LORD I cut them down.
¹² They swarmed around me like bees,
   but they were consumed as quickly as burning thorns;
   in the name of the LORD I cut them down.
¹³ I was pushed back and about to fall,
   but the LORD helped me.
¹⁴ The LORD is my strength and my defense^[a];
   he has become my salvation.

 ¹⁵ Shouts of joy and victory
   resound in the tents of the righteous:
“The LORD’s right hand has done mighty things!
 ¹⁶ The LORD’s right hand is lifted high;
   the LORD’s right hand has done mighty things!”
¹⁷ I will not die but live,
   and will proclaim what the LORD has done.
¹⁸ The LORD has chastened me severely,
   but he has not given me over to death.
¹⁹ Open for me the gates of the righteous;
   I will enter and give thanks to the LORD.
²⁰ This is the gate of the LORD
   through which the righteous may enter.
²¹ I will give you thanks, for you answered me;
   you have become my salvation.

 ²² The stone the builders rejected
   has become the cornerstone;
²³ the LORD has done this,
   and it is marvelous in our eyes.
²⁴ The LORD has done it this very day;
   let us rejoice today and be glad.

 ²⁵ LORD, save us!
   LORD, grant us success!

 ²⁶ Blessed is he who comes in the name of the LORD.
   From the house of the LORD we bless you.^[b]
27 The LORD is God,
   and he has made his light shine on us.
With boughs in hand, join in the festal procession
   up^[c] to the horns of the altar.

 ²⁸ You are my God, and I will praise you;
   you are my God, and I will exalt you.

 ²⁹ Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good;
   his love endures forever.

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Not bad for 2,500+ years, no?   That King David was something else.   Happy Easter, and Be well.

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