The Dry Bulk Index is on one of its epic runs. The last time this happened, EGLE went to $9, DRYS and GNK were heading to $5 and the world as we knew it still sucked.
Here we go again.
I understand. No one cares until they do. Once Cape rates pass $30k, all of the plebeians will crawl from out their housing tenements to buy shares of BALT, GNK, DRYS, SBLK etc. If you were wise, you’d position ahead of the crowd. Although iBankCoin gathers a good amount of attention, read by all of the fashionable people in finance, it is not mainstream. Therefore, the ideas that you gather from these halls should be kept in the strictest of confidences, else feel the full fury of my unforgiving wrath.
Now that I’ve done my part in stirring a race war, I thought I’d point you into some interesting directions, as far as stocks are concerned.
As readily told on the teevee, the month of December is generally a good one for stocks. Naturally, they just say this without backing it up with data. Truth be told, the market has been down 5 of the past 10 years during December. But who’s gonna let some facts get in the way of a good story?
But if you dig deeper and inspect the undercurrents of the tape, you can find some legitimate trends.
Using the seasonality engine inside of The PPT, I’ve come up with a short list of stocks that tend to outperform in December.
UN: has never been down in December, up 27 years in a row.
SYT: 13 years up, zero down, avg return 6.3%
GGB: 13 years up, one down, avg return of 10.4%
CLF: 22 years up, 4 down, avg return of 7.24%
Broader trends:
Steel and Iron stocks outperform, namely NUE, GGB, STLD and CLF.
Chinese stocks do abysmally. Avoid.
Homies do good, namely RYL, PHM and KBH.
REITs do fantastic, by far the best performers.
Oil and Gas: NOV, BAS, SD and CLR.
Ag: MON, POT, MOS.
Stocks to avoid:
CRUS, EXK, SWHC, BIDU, KNDI and RVLT.
How bad is CRUS during December you ponder?
Out of 23 years, its been up just 6. That’s a 73% lose rate in December for an average loss of 7.33%.
On the flip side, buying the blood in CRUS during December has proven to be a very profitable endeavor, as it tends to shine in January, sporting a 77% win rate and average return north of 10%. In other words, watch for CRUS to get crushed and buy it afterwards.
I want you to read a story with me; but promise to contain your rage, as this affront against mere children playing a game cannot go unpunished.
In the early hours of Thanksgiving morning, three Bronx thugs who were out for a game of “Knock Out” with what they thought was an unsuspecting victim, a white male in his late fifties to early sixties, got more than they bargained for.
The three men, all in their early twenties, were trailing the man down Morris Park Avenue, heading toward Williams Bridge Road when their prey veered into an alley way. They followed him into the alley and around a sharp, dark bend, only to find the barrel of a .45 magnum waiting on them. Two of them men were shot in the foot and the third was pistol whipped. Authorities nearby responded to 911 calls reporting the gunfire and called for ambulances. The men were taken to nearby Calvary Hospital where they were treated and released.
The men were not charged, but authorities are asking anyone who has any information on the individual who shot two of the men and pistol whipped the third to come forward. He is described as a white male, approximately late fifties to early sixties. He is approximately 5’10? and 165 pounds.
Police fear a vigilante may be on the loose, intentionally inviting wayward youth into playing the new “knock out” game for the intent purposes of maiming, or perhaps even killing them.
The knock out game is played when small to medium-sized groups of black youth seek out lone whites to attack and beat. They attempt to knock them out in the first punch. If this happens, the game is over. However, if the victim survives the first punch, the group sets upon them and pummels them profusely.
So far there have been seven known deaths as a result of the knock out game. Authorities and main stream media alike refuse to call the game a hate crime or even admit that race is an issue.
I know. You don’t have to say a word. Back in my days, in the 80’s, kids could play games in the streets without getting shot by some lunatic, roaming around, looking for trouble, with a 45. We’d play manhunt, kick the can, INCINERATOR (we’d fondle girls in the dark, inside the incinerator room), tackle football (on concrete), stickball, hardball (in a parking lot filled with cars. Use your imagination), freeze tag, asses up, Chinese handball, regular handball, errors, midnight madness (from the movie), amongst many others, and never have I been shot in the foot, maimed by some creep seeking justice.
The word “vigilante” is being flung around, describing this white chap roaming about an all black neighborhood. The correct term should be “child abuser” or “racist pig.” Could you imagine how crazy the media would be if a black man roamed around shooting white people!?
Just 27% of stocks were up today. If you made money, consider yourself lucky.
With all of the shopping frenzy taking place, Wall Street effectively tea bagged CNBC for trying to create a fervor around the classic ‘fade the black friday’ hype gibberish.
I lost 1% and was sorely disappointed with the downside reversal in BALT.
YELP was dragged lower with the rest of social media, after a TRLA downgrade; but recovered nicely into the bell. I am sure there were stocks that did well and some of you might enjoy bouncing around from one grenade to the next. But “The Fly” is tired of running from losses. As you can tell by my previous post, 2014 has been pock-marked with a slew of missed opportunities. Although I am +41% for the year, I literally should be +200%.
Long story short, December has begun with an uppercut to the scrotum, targeted at the small investor playing games inside of the internets, buying risk.
This is a reminder that sometimes, every so often, buy and hold is a good idea. I owned size in all of the above names this year and sold them for stupid gains or losses. I recall blowing out of DECK after an earnings miss in the $30’s. Fifty points later, I’m the dumbest man in the world.
2014 has been about the buy and the hold, making the traders look and feel stupid. I just sold ALJ 40% lower. I’m not sure if my prowess to pick massive winners is unique or common place. However, I am sure that I don’t want to repeat this dreadful record of impatience, especially on names that I am passionate about.
It’s very nice that AMZN wants to fly a helicopter to your doorstep. I am sure the good, gentrified, folks inside of Brooklyn’s urban centres will enjoy playing with them. Each and every year the media makes a big deal about ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber Monday’. The truth is, people will spend as much as they can; but the economy is run, strictly, by the upper middle class to rich. All of the misfits who waited online for ‘sales’ aren’t relevant, in the big scheme of things.
Dry Bulk shipping rates are spiking again.
This is it, gents. I’m either going back to new highs or wallow in misery for the remainder of 2013.
As far as the market is concerned, December is a great month for stocks. HOWEVER, the Nasdaq has been down in 5 out of the past 10 years, including the last two. So don’t get ahead of yourself, pal. This market was designed to fleece you, in the end.
As we embark on yet another national holiday (cyber Monday), one thing comes to mind: IRON ORE SALES FROM CHINA.
It’s a perplexing situation, mind you. We’ve all grown to distrust anything Chinese, a land who prides itself on selling plastic rice to the poor and human embryonic soup to its rich. So, naturally, when I heard that iron ore demand out of China was more than robust, but fantastic, I was skeptical.
Then I had a conversation with an executive from a dry bulk shipping company. Apparently, this is for real.
Just last week the BDI surged ahead by 15% and is poised to move higher this week. When the dry bulk index moves higher, it tends to do so in very Liberace, behind the Candelabra, ways.
Once again, your top plays in the sectors are BALT, GNK and DRYS. The last two simply for upside explosion potential should Cape rates move up. BALT is your all around play, with even handed representation in the small vessels, as well as the big ones. They’re also the least levered and have enough cash to not only make it through the storm, but also expand its fleet–which is something most bulkers cannot afford.
I’d toss EGLE into the mix too. However, their last earnings report was so bad, I fear massive dilution and/or bankruptcy might be in the cards.
In short, I’ve held this hand for many months now and it has done nothing for me, as I am flat on my BALT position. Nonetheless, the BDI is moving now and so are the stocks. If this industry is going to do anything at all, now is the time, starting with tomorrow’s sit.
I will find your Russian/Chinese/Mongolian ass and make you pay. It’s one thing to plagiarize, behave like a sub-human knave because you’re too stupid to create anything of your own. It’s entirely another thing to attempt to disrupt and steal another man’s millstone.
If anyone would like to help with the capture of these internet thieves, feel free to enlist in the comments section.
As America bulked up last night, coincidentally, so did the Dry Bulk Shipping industry. There has been a swift sea-change in rates that demands to be observed.
Here is yesterday’s move in the BDI
That’s right, a 9% move in the BDI occurred as you stuffed your fat faces with bird.
And today’s move:
Most impressive is the spike in Capesize rates, which is helping GNK and DRYS rip tits to the upside.
The shipping index inside of The PPT is up more than 3% today, led by gains in SHIP, FREE, FRO, TOPS, EGLE, ESEA, NEWL, VLCCF, SBLK, NAT and PRGN.
However, as a student of this industry, an industry crushed under the weight of oversupply and economic sloth, I am telling you right now the best company is BALT. They’ve been bulking up and so will your wallet, if you’re so inclined as to hold it for another 3 months.
HAPPY BLACK FRIDAY!!!
Greetings from the pirate vessel in the turbulent seas, The SS CLAWHAMMER.
Last year we dove into the etiquette required to host a Thanksgiving Dinner party. Now we will address the important matter of comporting oneself as a guest, during the great holiday of Thanksgiving.
Upon arrival, hand the footman answering the door the sweets in your possession, as a gift to the host. You bring them in abundance, whether or not they are diabetic, on strict diets, or allergic to wheat. You bring them, nonetheless.
Example: “Hello Jeffrey (the name of the footman), please take this chocolate cake to the kitchen as a gift for my diabetic mother-in-law.”
After entering the home, be sure to exchange pleasantries with the hosts, both husband and wife. However, feel free to snub everyone else in a sudden act of aloofness.
Example: “Thank you so much for having us in your home (shaking the hand of the male, then kissing the right cheek of the female, keeping a 6 inch distance at all times). Immediately after being received, walk briskly and with purpose to the rear of the house, making believe everyone else were insignificant peasants of an underclass– invisible.
During refreshments, take up some casual conversation with the older looking men. They tend to harbor a great deal of vitriolic hate, since they’re markedly closer to death. It makes for great cocktail entertainement.
Example: “Hello Bill, have you been seeing all of those elderly people getting punched in the face by hyper-active urban students? I believe they call the game ‘knock-out.’ I read somewhere that Obamacare was going to issue free steel masks for the elderly to pre-empt expensive surgeries. Would you wear one?”
When dinner is announced, be sure to avoid sitting across from attractive ladies, as it might get you in unnecessary trouble with your wife during dinner. When the host requests that everyone donate to his charity of choice, due to some sympathetic cause, excuse yourself to the lavatory until after donations are taken.
Example: After hearing the request, call over one of the footmen and ask him to show you where the bathroom is located. “Excuse me William, would you be a sport and show me where you keep the bathroom hidden. I must relieve myself.”
Just before grace is said, ask the host if you could do the honors of offering a few words of thanks. During your brief speech, be sure to plug your company and/or services in a clever way that might appeal to the affluent gents in attendance.
Example: “Dear Lord, please bless these turkeys before they head into our mouths and stomachs.Thank you for allowing my firm (name of company) to excel this year with 30% gains in the stock market for the fifth consecutive year. I am sure we all have things to be thankful for and I felt it would be selfish of me if I didn’t speak my mind on this joyous occasion to let you know how pleased I am with the talents you’ve bestowed upon me. Omen.” (be sure to say “Omen” and not “Amen”, as it suggests better breeding.)
Following dinner, when the females are introduced to the aprons and the men retire to the antechamber for port and cigars, be sure to ally yourself with most aggressive debater, as it will allow you to vanquish the other males without breaking a sweat.
Example: “Bob is right. All of the evidence points towards CNBC being run by a homosexual mafia. Anyone who suggests otherwise, like Bob said, must have something to hide. QED.” (break the ash from your cigar, inadvertently onto the persian rugs below.) “I’m so sorry about that.”
When the ladies have cleaned up and are re-invited into the drawing room, feel free to establish small talk.
Example: “I really feel that if a mother doesn’t nurse a newborn with her own milk, such a mother is failing at her duties and should be replaced. Any father in his right mind knows this goes against the laws of nature and should prevent this abuse from occurring with all of his will.” Other gents chime in “HEAR! HEAR!” rattling their canes onto the floors below.
After several ladies complain about your remarks in disgust, pardon yourself and blame it on the excessive alcohol being served.
Example: “I am very sorry Mrs. Thompson. I believe Bill here has given me too much to drink, as I am not my usual self. TEN THOUSAND APOLOGIES.”
Shortly after, excuse yourself to the restroom and feign sickness. This will allow you to leave early, and avoid boredom.
Example: After coming back from the bathroom, holding your stomach, say “I am very sorry but Margaret and I must be going now, I am feeling rather ill. Perhaps the turkey or the port didn’t agree with me. Thank you so much for this lovely dinner.” Try to add a slight bit of sarcasm towards the end of the last sentence, but not overtly. You do not want to come off as rude.
When the hosts walk with you to the door to see you out, just before kissing the female host goodbye, make believe you’re about to vomit on her–but catch yourself with a clenched fist to the mouth.
Example: “Bill and Diane, I wish we could stay longer. This was lovely. (lean in to kiss Diane goodbye, then let the faux nausea begin!) Oh, my, I am really feeling rather ill and should depart at once. I bid you goodbye.” (tips hat, pushes open door with cane, exits).
