The Art of Winning While Losing

Gather around children, Uncle Fly is going to show you how a gentleman wins while suffering from beast-like losses.

A short while ago, I purchased NIHD, based upon the concept that the lowest form of sub-human would flock–MIND YOU– to their local Brasilian nextel dealership to buy a phone, now that Apple has been beaten dead. This turned out to be one of my stupidest ideas ever, as the stock wallowed–MIND YOU–down into the oblivion of misery.

I sold the stock out yesterday, booking a very calm and collective 15% loss, cursing the heavens for tricking me into such an unfashionable name, swearing oaths to all of the Gods, both old and new, to never invest in shoddy south american cellular phone enterprises again.

Then this morning I was blessed with this good news.

NII Holdings sees Q4 rev above consensus; sees FY13 rev below consensus (6.38 )
Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (Dec), sees Q4 (Dec) revs of ~$1.5 bln vs. $1.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; net subscriber additions of ~2,200, and total capital expenditures of ~$525 million with FY12 OBIDA of $930-950 mln.

Co issues downside guidance for FY13 (Dec), sees FY13 (Dec) revs of $5.7-5.9 bln vs. $6.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus (may not compare due to planned divestitures). Consolidated adjusted OIBDA in the range of $600 million to $650 million; Mid-single digit growth rate for its consolidated subscriber base. Co sees negative operating CF in 2013 up $200 mln YoY.

In 2013, the co plans to continue to invest in the deployment of its 3G networks with a particular focus on building those networks and improving results in its core markets of Mexico and Brazil. The co also announced that it is continuing to support its operations in Peru, Chile and Argentina, while also exploring strategic options for these markets, such as partnerships, service arrangements and asset sales to maximize the value of those businesses and generate additional liquidity. The Company is also in the process of pursuing a sale and leaseback of an aggregate of up to 4,500 telecommunication towers that it owns in Brazil and Mexico through a competitive bidding process. The Company is currently evaluating offers from a number of interested parties and expects to be in a position to complete these transactions during the course of 2013.

The stock is bid down more than 18% in pre-market trade, leaving Le Fly in a very powerful winning position, following a most horrendous loss.

Off to do other powerful and important things.

(tips hat)

Wouldn’t you agree that to have information at one’s finger tips provides the person with an advantage? It goes without saying that information is vital when it comes to investing, knowing what stocks to buy, why and when.

Out of the thousands of stocks traded, don’t you think it would be useful to know what stocks correlate best to a market bounce and precisely what sectors and stocks outperform most?

This is an obsession of mine. I don’t always play the stocks I gawk at, even though I probably should since the stocks I talk about most (APKT) tend to outperform the one’s I actually own. Enough of my curse.

The PPT is not oversold yet. However, the Overall Hybrid score dropped by 15% today, putting it in the top 20 drops of all-time. A number of stocks swung to oversold today, measured using both technicals and fundamentals. Fundamentals can flag OS or OB signals only when valuations become so extreme that it weighs heavily on the Hybrid score.

The following stocks were flagged oversold today and posses excellent track records. Moreover, they correlate well to the overall market. So, should we get a bounce in stocks, these stocks are more likely to outperform others, barring a news event that shifts the paradigm.

PPT members can access full screen here.

VRNG
TOL
HRS
MTH
EXK (strong Feb seasonality)
LEN
HW
IDXX
RPRX

There are only two things I am interested in: housing and Japan. If we get a moderate sell off, I am a big buyer, into leverage if need be, of both housing and Japan. Nothing else matters to me. It’s all just a blur and noise.

BZH is coming in–good.
I hope MTU and NMR sell off.
And if WETF could ever trade down more than 3%, I’d greatly appreciate it.

Here are a few things you need to remember, when looking at this tape.

1. We had a terrific January and sell offs are normal.
2. Following such a robust January, historically, the market trades up until April.
3. Earnings season can certainly taint the waters. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play the earnings game.

Keep it simple.

I am heeding my own advice and keeping it very simple. I do not need to scour the markets, looking for ideas. I know exactly what I want to buy and at what prices. It’s unfortunate to be sidetracked by stupid stocks like NIHD–but that’s what happens when you stray off the reservation.

Chief Fly is staying on the reservation and intends to scalp any and all white men who step on my ancient grounds, trying to take what is rightfully mine.

I don’t think we go lower for more than 3 days. However, in the event that I am wrong, I’ve decided to sell now, while I can, in order to raise cash. I cut losses on NIHD and booked a gain in HMC, effectively reducing my equity exposure to 85%.

I will be looking to reinvest the money when the coast is clear. Consider me to be a savage animal, lurking in the tall grass, waiting for an injured zebra to devour. There are so many delectable animals to eat. However, I prefer the ones who are weak and out of favor. I already have some stocks that are near 52 week highs and others, like ELLI, just sucking wind.

My next targets will be stocks that are still in favor, but only recently became subject to a most horrendous bout of profit taking.

I will provide the internet with such a list later, at my earliest convenience.

In a country where a vile Godaddy exists, marijuana is becoming so mainstream, it’s publicly traded. Post collapse, I fully expect the NYSE and NASDAQ to whore themselves by allowing heroin and cocaine stocks trade publicly, perhaps under ticker symbols such as PIPE, NEDL, SNRT, BLOW, CRAK, DRGS, HIGH and SNOW.

As the market struggles to hold value, degenerates dressed in clothes made from hemp are bidding up the shares of bastard companies, whose sole goal is to put a pipe filled with marijuana into the hands of your sons and daughters.

Observe.

I suspect such stocks will do exceedingly well under an Obama second term. The official post election trade was to sell coal and get long marijuana.

Apropos.

NOTE: I am being extremely sarcastic and know, without a shadow of a doubt, that these stocks will collapse and crush investors who chase this trade.

With the markets crashing this afternoon and the Fed on the sidelines, the investor public is left in tatters, and regrettably, shambles. All of the good will that had been built over the past 4 years has been shattered in one afternoon. After today, I doubt that any person of sound mind, body and soul will ever invest in the US markets again.

As the market devolves into anarchy, I am long with 100% of my assets, doomed because of my avarice for hedonism.

With whatever I have left, I intend to buy some property in Romania and start a small “farming village,” eventually taking over the central government and appointing myself “King”, monarch of the world, before marching on neighboring states–demanding they pay tribute.

Many years from now, I will look back on this day and remember the bloodshed could’ve all been avoided had the damned Federal Reserve done their job and push the market higher.

Top Pick: USG

Another one of my former holdings soared this morning, APKT. Why even begin to think about it? Oh, and another thing, it makes no sense to buy EXFO or SONS off the buyout. If anything, Larry Ellison will buy MLNX next. After all, ORCL owns 8% of the company.

The market’s are selling off, after Italian markets plunged–down more than 3%. As a result, every single one of my holdings are lower, a phenomenon only matched by the ineptitude of the Godaddy advertising department.

As I write this, WETF went green, so I am saved. Nevertheless, it’s dreadful out there. We are going to need some moar Federal Reserve stimulus. I just can’t bear losing so much money in the market’s. Can you?

BEN MUST ACT NOW and bail out the market. We aren’t supposed to endure a downward spiraling tape, are we? The nerve of these politicians, as they dine on caviar and the brains of goats, to expect us, the people, to suffer unimaginable horrors at the hands of short sellers.

Obama must do something, try some stimulus spending and force people to buy luxury goods and eat at exorbitant restaurants.

All I know is this, if they don’t act soon, like today, there isn’t gonna be a country left to buy luxury garments in anymore. Quit your pussyfooting Mr. Bernnake and ACT NOW!!!

Whether Icahn is long HLF or not is immaterial at this point. He challenged Ackman on teevee in front of millions, deriding Ackman for shorting HLF and calling him a lousy investor. If this NY Post report is correct, Ackman will rejoice by throwing rotten tomatoes at Icahn’s ancient head.

Embattled Herbalife is feeling the heat — and this time it isn’t coming from a hedge-fund mogul.

The Los Angeles-based distributor of nutritional products is the subject of a law enforcement investigation, The Post has learned.

The existence of the probe emerged after the Federal Trade Commission, responding to a Freedom of Information Law request by The Post, released 192 complaints filed against Herbalife over the past seven years.

The FTC redacted some sections, saying it didn’t have to divulge “information obtained by the commission in a law enforcement investigation, whether through compulsory process, or voluntarily …”

Other complaints contained a note referring to a “pending law enforcement action.” The FTC did not say whether the action was civil or criminal.

The Post filed a Freedom of Information Law request with the FTC on Dec. 26 to see if there had been any substantive complaints six days after hedge-fund activist Bill Ackman went public with a $1 billion short position – calling Herbalife’s multi-level marketing model a pyramid scheme that should be shut down by regulators.

In all, the FTC released 729 pages of complaints.

The FTC received complaints about false promises Herbalife made and the difficulty distributors had in collecting income owed and in getting refunds. Some, months and years before Ackman did so, told the FTC they believed the company is a pyramid scheme.

One distributor in Franklin, Pa.., wrote, “I have been in a real dilemma regarding what to do about this business.”

“I do not like the deception present. It’s one thing not to reveal every detail; it’s another to outright lie and encourage others to do so . . . you encourage lying.”

The woman said she was given a script to read to recruits that there were “only a few openings left.”

“Yeah, right!” the woman wrote in her complaint.

The woman — who said her husband earned $4,000 a month — also said Herbalife told her she would need to spend $6,450 a month to turn a profit. “How in the world am I going to expend this kind of money?” she asked in her complaint. She said she felt trapped. “If I quit, I have no hope of paying off the $7,000 [already due the company] left on the credit card.”

Herbalife shares and its execs have been under pressure since Dec. 19 when Ackman announced his massive short position.

Shares tumbled 38.7 percent in the four trading days following the Ack-attack. But an 8 percent stake bought by hedge-fund rival Dan Loeb in early January pushed the stock back up some 77 percent by Jan. 15.

Loeb said it was “preposterous” that the FTC would take action against the company. Shares see-sawed again last week, falling almost 20 percent after the FTC shut down a Kentucky multi-level marketing operation.

For much of this year, investors have staked out positions — some backing Ackman and others behind Loeb — not knowing what regulators would do.

After reviewing the now-public complaints, which the FTC put on its website, Ackman told The Post: “I have a lot more confidence in our government’s regulators than those who own the stock.”

The FTC, Herbalife and Loeb could not be reached for comment.

As you recall, several months ago we had elections, whereby three candidates were chosen as ‘interim tabbed bloggers’, selected by the people, for the people, to represent iBC. Shortly thereafter, the Great Maximus, who was lauded by the people, had to retire due to family issues. Immediately following, I mandated the school crossing guard, protector of our children, Elizamae, take the helm. She’s done a wonderful ever since.

But now comes the crux of the situation we find ourselves in.

The terms of employment were based upon the condition that each new member uphold the highest of standards in journalism and to partake in belligerent propaganda, while receiving a minimum 3% of overall site traffic.

Now comes the unfortunate part of the story.

At the outset of joining the ranks, I sent the interim bloggers a web page to track their blog’s traffic in real time. Well, according to the web page, assembled by BEAS himself, all bloggers are upholding the minimum 3% threshold. On most days, some of them even capture 4 or 5%!

BEHOLD the unbelievable as I unravel it before your very eyes.

According to Google Analytics, none of them are even close to 3%, thereby and effectively leaving them exposed to the very dangers they’ve been trying to avoid since 12/15/12: they shall be fired.

Elections will be held on the day of our lord March 15th, 2013, to elect new interim tabbed bloggers. All those interested shall make themselves known inside of the Blogger Network. If you haven’t been invited to our blogger network, email Vincenzo Illuminati for an invite at [email protected]

I’ve been thoroughly impressed with the efforts of all three bloggers and would love to keep them onboard. However, rules and rules and these are the very strictest of rules passed down from the Board of Directors at iBankCoin, enforced by yours truly, for the benefit of the world of finance.

For all of those celebrating tonight’s Baltimore Raven victory, just know that the last time they won the Super Bowl this country fell victim to the greatest attack on American soil since Pearled Harbor.

Good night and farewell.

Fly

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