Intent on Milking the Stupid Farmers

I’ve been telling you about asset managers, Japanese exporters and of course a certain patent litigation play that is sure to make Tim Cook cry. But I haven’t really touched on my top 5 position, MOS. We are now in the planting season, small men reading the internets. Last year farmers received rail spikes through their stupid faces, thanks to mother nature bestowing dust bowls upon their property and livelihood.

To be clear, nitrogen and potash are going to be needed in great quantity this year, to stave off catastrophe. Yields need to be better this year, else prices are going up again. The Chicken Gods and King Obama will not like that.

There are many ways to skin this cat. You can play the water side of things, via irrigation plays LNN or VMI. Or, you can go straight to the source and buy MOS, TNH, CF and AGU. POT used to be in play; but now they’re just some stupid Canadian potash company that is poorly operated and unable to make its shareholders any money.

DE is always in demand and their earnings were good. Grain elevators will be needed (ANDE) and genetically modified corn is all the rage these days. You might as well join the dark side and buy MON.

Bear in mind, most of what MON stands for goes against everything that I believe to be sound and just. But making money is not about ideology–but realism. Go ahead and make some money off MON, then use the proceeds to buy your family some food from WFM.

Quit being such babies.

In my next post, I have two underdog internet stocks worth a dice roll.

“The Fly” closed the day punching off chest hairs like Bruce Lee, up 13% for the year. Through clever limit orders, I managed to partially divest from my gargantuan VHC position. I had to do it, so shut your cantaloupe heads and go back to playing second fiddle.

I’ve made millions this year and with the +13% year to date, I am only 15% from my all time highs. When I hit that number, and trust me I will (you can bet on 10,000 bibles), I am going to shut this stupid site down for an undetermined period of time. You’re all spoiled brats. You want picks from me, Chess, RC and everyone else. Yet what do you give?

YOU DESERVE NOTHING.

You offer nothing but drivel and when things go on pause for a few months, all of a sudden, you’re a financial guru–qualified to tell Le Fly how to run money.

Let me tell you something, little trollop: I’ve been doing this, successfully, since the 90’s (started from dirt). Keep listening to complete retards with no skin in the game, no real experience in managing large swaths of money. See where it gets you in the long term. I do more volume in one month than all of these clowns combined, over the course of a year.

A pathetic man once said “officer, some man in a black cloak just walked in here, with a giant bowling ball, and threw it at all of us, knocking us into the back of the lane.”

I sold off a portion of my VHC position for three reasons.

1. It was 30% of my assets.

2. I was up 18%.

3. I have another place to put the money and I am 100% long.

Don’t believe that I’ve lost confidence. However, it goes without saying, I warned you many times that I’d sell VHC to finance my thesis trades. I will do exactly that.

Stay tuned for new buy.

Shares of MAS are up sharply this morning after beating earnings expectations. But it’s more than that, pickled face. They make kitchen cabinetry and people are spending lots of money, further solidifying my belief that we are in the 3rd inning of the housing recovery.

“We expect new home construction to show strong growth in 2013, and anticipate repair and remodel to grow modestly, with big ticket items continuing to lag. Our focus this year is to successfully execute new product programs, improve profitability in Cabinets and Installation Services, and expand our brand leadership positions. We believe the actions we have taken over the past several years, including investing in our brands, reducing our cost structure and paying down debt, have strengthened our business. We believe these actions have positively positioned us to take advantage of the upturn in the housing cycle.“

Masco’s direct competitor is FBHS. The stock is being overlooked today and should be bid up. I bought back BZH on the MAS news. I think housing related stocks are about to take another leg up. I’ve also added to my USG position (2nd largest position next to VHC).

There is no better way to play the housing recovery than wall board. Warren Buffett knows it and will likely buy the remainder of USG, keeping its future profits to himself.

Why don’t you?

Get your heads out from the pickle jars and buy a house.

Off the MAS earnings beat and comments, I bought back BZH and added to USG.

I know the condition of the market, with its lack of volatility and exciting news, has many of you “bored” or unable to appreciate a slowly moving tape. But money isn’t boring is it? Last I checked, money affords me to do exciting things: travel, drink like a fish, renovate my house until the neighbors surrender. Learn to appreciate the moribund and profit from the bland.

Deep in the bowels of the market is a select group of stocks that are soaring higher, without the prerequisite fundamentals or anything to do with proper institutional support that typically characterizes a winner. Small capped stocks are being bid up by the very worst investors in the world, men saturated in their own urine and feces, trying to make enough money to pay down their credit card debt.

BEHOLD the top 25 stocks under $5 list.

The number one stock embodies this type of saturated investor that I mention. Its share price has gone from .17 to $1.60 in a very short period of time.

Oh, you want to know what they do?

No one knows, not even the company itself.

Japan’s HGH powered economic minister, Akira Amari, said Japanese stocks are “still low” and that “…there is no doubt higher stock prices are better than low ones.”

I happen to agree with this man.

Everyone thinks Japan is this pathetic island nation beholden to the degeneracies of their mortal enemy, China. The fact of the matter is, as the Chinese build phantom cities to keep their pathetically poor vagrant farmer class content and away from the pitched fork, the Japanese are living a life of luxury, with unemployment in Japan at its lowest level since 1999.

So don’t feel sorry or make fun of the samurais until you find a job.

But things are about to go from good to very good in Japan, despite their psychotic 205% debt to GDP dilemma.

ENTER KURODA!

“Japan’s economy has suffered from prolonged deflation that must be eradicated — that would raise short-to-medium term growth prospects significantly,” Kuroda, 68, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “Two percent plus for calendar year 2013 would be quite possible and for some years could be sustained,” he said, referring to a pace of expansion not maintained in Japan since stagnation set in in 1992. source

To be clear, the favored new head of the BOJ is intent, hell bent even, on seeing Japanese inflation at 2-3%, in order to stimulate the economy.

Umm, the last time Japan had real inflation was in the 90’s, aside from that weird period of 2008-2009.

Japanese inflation is at zero right now. In order to jack it up to 2%, the yen will need to decline by another 25%.

Your trade is to be short yen, via long YCS, and get long banks and exporters. My favorites are NMR, MTU, HMC, TM, PC and CAJ. And of course, the best way to play it from a savage leech American perspective is to be long WETF, as inflows swell into DXJ.

The NIKKEI is up 2.5% for the session, so far.

In how many ways do I need to explain to you this is as good as it gets? The entire world is in the currency war and equity holders are the direct beneficiaries. I’m not even picking stocks at a particularly rapid or efficient rate, yet find myself up more than 10% for the year–just for showing up.

I have the balls to be 95% invested, cutting losses along the way, as well as booking gains. I am trying a bunch of different approaches, all to do with trending stocks. Eventually, I am going to hit my homerun, AND MORE.

90% of the “hard part” is showing up and not doing anything stupid. I am avoiding outlier stocks like the god-damned black plague. I want nothing to do with a stupid stock that can’t go up in the midst of this lunacy. If your portfolio was down today, shoot yourselves in the freakin’ head.

“The Fly” doesn’t have time for your crap. Do you understand me?

I’ve gawked at stocks that were on the bottom of my shoe double in price, for little to no discernible reason. Like I said a few sentences ago, my stock picking prowess hasn’t exactly been of the stellar varietal, partly due to 30% of my assets being tied down in VHC. Nevertheless, it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and I know exactly what the market is going to do from now until April 15th.

Top pick: BX

New highs in the market’s means higher fees for asset managers, more ipo’s, secondaries, and of course earnings per share. I know you might think it’s a little late to buy into the sector, but only if you think the market is topping out. Some people I know have believed the market was going down for 15 years now. Through all of the negativity and depression, these persons have missed the boat, watched others get rich in their stead.

Don’t be that guy, the homosexual at the cocked-tail party who proclaims doom and gloom is upon us. Even if it were true, no one wants to hear it. Successful people are attracted to positivity. It’s too hard to get the short trade right for the average millionaire, whose sole interest is to outperform the S&P. If that’s your stated goal, look no further than the asset managers.

I still own GS from $138-$143. I sold out of WETF because I wanted to move up the ladder in market cap. Being that I had a 15% gain, I thought it was prudent to take profits and reduce risk.

There are several other names worth looking at in the space.

Regional brokerage: SF
National brokerage: GS, PRI, NMR, MS
Asset Managers: KKR, APO, WDR, OAK, PJC, FIG, CG, PFG, BLK, WETF and AB
Life Insurance: MFC, PRU

There is a whole litany of regional and money center banks who are benefiting from the great big US housing recovery. But I am not interested in any of that, from a banking standpoint. I am also not interested in serial underperformers, with hopes that investors will WAKE UP to its intrinsic value. No.

I am only interested in buying names that will outperform the overall market, without all of the fuss of having to endure an outlier. In my estimation, BX, APO, GS, OAK and MFC fit the bill, quite nicely.

The Japanese economic minister all but said the government is manipulating stocks and would like to see the NIKKEI at 13,000 within a few weeks. Why, that’s only a 17% lift from here, in the world’s 3rd largest economy.

He said “It will be important to show our mettle and see the Nikkei reach the 13,000 mark by the end of the fiscal year (March 31).” Following a few lines of cocaine, he continued by saying “We want to continue taking (new) steps to help stock prices rise.”

What the hell is going on here? Have people lost their minds, all at once?

I think it’s fair to say Japanese stocks have a strong bid underneath them. However, I am also afraid that this trade is becoming a bit too vogue at the moment. Let it cool down, then revisit it with the fortitude of a Pope inside of an African church.

The market’s look good this morning, as they have for every morning this year. I assure you tougher sledding awaits us AFTER 4/15. Stock up on your wins now, for when the spring arrives, you’re all gonna die.