This is Some Real BS

As long as TLT keep go higher, this market will be hostage to this range. With all of the liquidity around the world, all of the reasons to get long stocks due to corporate profits, we are being handcuffed by what seems to be a panic trade into bonds. The safe haven/harbor allure of government bonds has gotten to the point of absurdity. I told you this would happen, as it always is the case this time of year. People get scared towards the end of summer, into the Fall. It’s a little early to bulk up on TLT; but I suppose the Israeli-Russian storyline has the cowards spooked.

That being said, oil stocks are better fear trade alternatives– because it’s based upon reason and profits. Names like SLCA, FANG, OAS and CXO should continue to outperform, not to mention ethanol plays.

This is a giant week for earnings and many of you are down in recent weeks. My sole advice to you is get out of your stocks before they report earnings. Unless you have an edge or a long term point of view, turning a trade into an earnings gamble makes you a microbe.

I have to go now. Don’t expect the market to do what you expect it to do today. Monday’s is a day for the idiot trade, bedraggled by a long weekend of illegal narcotics and alcohol. Do yourselves a favor and go take a nap. Get back to me after 1pm.

I believe the market is about to go on a ‘gorilla run’ to the upside. Anything is a buy. That being said, James Gardner, hollywood actor, passed away recently. I’ve always found him to be a likeable person on the screen. My favorite movie of his is Barbarians at the Gate. I remember coming up in the brokerage business, circa late 90’s, watching this premier on CNBC. If you haven’t seen this movie yet, do yourself a favor and watch it now.

About ten years ago I had a client close out his account. He was taking a position at a new company and due to compliance concerns, he needed to consolidate his brokerage accounts. Many people in my industry get vindictive when accounts are closed out, often ‘full boating’ clients on the way out, as a bad faith gesture to fuck off for closing the account. I’ve always done the exact opposite, charging nothing to leave, a gesture that communicated my appreciation for the years of business that this person entrusted in me.

Who knows if this person remembers what I did or not? The important point is that we left on good terms, because I chose to take the high road and not the petty one.

I will have you know, this person is now my largest client.

Don’t burn bridges people. Many of you are too stupid to understand that networking between people is the most valuable asset we have, other than time. If you are an intra-vert, oddballish around other humans, you should take public speaking classes or learn how to not be a pussy around women.

You’re all going to die within a few short decades, so you might as well go for the prize now.

In other news, The PPT wins again. Ask somebody.

So the market is up today. I am not impressed. Do you want to know why I am not impressed? Of course you are–why else would you be here?

Let me tell you something, jackass, the market should not have gone done in the first place. While you were over there, shorting stocks into the hole, smarter people than you were buying. How many times does this need to happen for you to get it into your thick, cromagnon skulls?

The market isn’t going down, or at least until I say so. Got it?

I could be a dick and start buying all of the shit you sold yesterday. But I’m a better man than that and will practice the art of discretion. The only reason why I am doing this is because it’s a Friday and I have better things to do, other than waste my time buying your stocks.

I’ll tell you what I will do. I’m gonna give you until Monday to cover your shorts. If you don’t do it by then, well, you’re gonna get your eyebrows punched clean off your face.

So what should you buy?

Oh, I don’t know. How about anything? Does that work for you?

I still believe the market is going to cascade lower in late August, through pagan X-mas. I’ve told you we are following the path of 2000 and I am sticking to it. But part of that journey included a July fake out, a decline that scared people into believing we’d head back to the May lows. Many stocks are indeed back to the May lows and even more are hitting new lows. But that doesn’t mean the game is over, just yet.

Let me tell you something, this market has been marked by satan ever since it crashed in 2008. Do you people remember how much fun that was? Do you? I mean, really? If you were happy to see the market at 666, then something is chemically wrong with you. I’d castrate 90% of the male population, if given the chance. The simple fact of the matter is, most of the current gene pool shouldn’t continue. There, I said. I do not support genocide, per se. I am only advocating the sterilization of more than 100 million eligible men.

Back to the markets.

I don’t care what that idiot Cramer said: markets don’t go lower because airplanes get shot down. Believe me, I am saddened by it and I will probably never ever fly in an airplane that is even remotely close to Russia in my lifetime. But are we all fucking children here? Have you all lost your minds and balls?

We trade up from here, people. If a military jet was shot down, maybe we trade down for about a week, maybe two. But we have a destiny to fulfill and there is nothing that can derail us from tethering the timeline of 2000 to the exact decimal.

I don’t care what people are telling you, what the talking heads on the television are saying, praising new highs and what have you: this, ladies and gentlemen, is a bad tape. This isn’t an environment to make money, when only 25% of stocks are up. Are you a fucking idiot?

When markets behave like this, watch out. Go to the sidelines and wait for an inflection point.

How will you know when it is time to buy?

If you weren’t so cheap, and jaded, you’d know that The PPT is running at an 89% accuracy clip over the past 12 months. While it’s true, nothing is forever and there isn’t a such thing as a holy grail, this thing works. When it stops working, I will be the first to fix it. Until then, I will depend on it to time my buys.

I am 13% cash, heavily invested in a wide array of stocks, and I am not happy. In my favor, I am milking the farmer and his bullshit corn, via PEIX, and my silver stock (AG) is rallying hard–because Russia is now shooting down commercial jetliners.

I think it’s clear, as well as evident, that the market has morphed into a death trap, whereby any unsuspecting participant is liable to get his head chopped off at any given moment. My first instinct, as I look at this tape, is to buy more AG. But I am fully aware that the market might just bounce tomorrow and gold and silver could very well kick me in the nuts, like it did last week.

I guess what I am telling you is go eat a sandwich. This market is only going to disappoint you and rob you of your time.

If you would excuse me, I have a meeting to take.

Being a trader or manager of other people’s assets is a hard job. It’s very stressful because there is a lot to lose. You have to find an escape, an oasis away from the job, otherwise you’re gonna burn out. More than 90% of the people I started with in this business are out. They’re not out because they weren’t good enough or because they didn’t want it. They are out because they were unable to see the bigger picture.

What am I talking about?

You know I can see your smug faces just looking at this post, thinking that you know it all. But guess what? You don’t know shit, so why don’t you shut the fuck up and listen to what I am about to tell you.

It’s not enough to go out and drink like an idiot or have sex with every girl/guy that you meet. Those are bad habits and they will literally kill you. When you’re not building your business or stressing out over stocks misbehaving, go read a book. Do not simply read the pages–become entranced by it.

I’ve always found the single best form of communication between the human species to be through cinema. Go see a movie. As a matter of fact, watch a lot of movies, all different genres. It’s not corny to become inspired by a fictional character on the screen. Sometimes a little fiction can go a long way, to break up the monotony of life–offer an escape from the hard realities of competition.

We are all competing against one another, on multiple levels. You are trying to outsmart me (good luck with that) by making the bigger gains, buying the bigger house, the better car, etc. While it’s true, those are all material items and success isn’t simply gauged by possessions. I’d literally rather be dirt poor and happy than rich and miserable. But you know what? I’m just not built like that. I could never, ever, ever be happy without money.

Some of you can fuck off and go live your pathetic little lives without money, eating out of garbage cans. But I can’t do that. I’d rather throw myself into a lit fireplace than go back to poverty–thank you very much.

If your job is such that you are unable to break out and make it big, then save, invest wisely, and do it on your own time.

We are here to help.

Listen to me, okay? I sold out of my largest position today for break-even. I was up 5% on it a few days ago, but was forced to sell. Do you know why?

Because of this lady.

Last go around, TSL made me money. It didn’t make me a lot of money. But I made money. So today I sold, against my better judgement, because of this lady.

With some of the proceeds, I bought PEIX. Do you know why I bought PEIX?

Because fuck the farmer. That’s why. Do you know why I am cursing now, despite promising to never curse here again? Because I am an adult and can do whatever I like. That’s why.

Look, the Fed wants air to come out of the small cap biotech and tech space. Some of these stocks have been hammered in recent weeks, absolutely destroyed–20-35% declines. These are weak stocks, in an awkward tape, that are susceptible to further selling. Do yourselves a favor and lighten up. I am not telling you to get bearish and to sell everything. I am telling you to lighten up–because if this lady gets her way, you’re gonna be shining my shoes by Christmas.

Futures are lower. You’re all gonna lose money and die tomorrow. Have a nice night.

“Go fetch me a bushel of corn. I will not be paying very much for it either.”

The simple fact of the matter is, the US farmer are stuck in a corn maze, all to do with the sun and a cooler than expected summer. These summer winds will bring forth RECORD corn crops. As such, the price of corn shall plummet to the dirt, offering corn farmers nothing but misery.

To profit from this, “The Fly” has decided to chase the shares of PEIX here. Gasoline demand is robust and we have a criminally insane administration who just might up the mandated 10% ethanol blend to something even more egregious. With corn low and gasoline high, ethanol producers are in a sweet spot (extra corn).

Other ethanol plays include REX, GPRE, BIOF and AMTX.

The sun is too hot for me to bear. I broke even on TSL and moved on.