Bullish Close

I’m not at the desk but I’m trading from my phone using the screens in Stocklabs, just buying and holding for now. The trend is strong and it would behoove me to doubt that the bullish fervor was going to end soon.

I closed +35bps in narrow trading, with gains abundant in areas I wasn’t represented: materials and China. Today was all about China but I suspect we’ll see a broadening out tomorrow.

If you’re shorting stocks now, you are not a serious trader and might be better off resigning.

Stocks are near or at recourd highs. Central banks are undergoing monetary stimulus programs at a time when profits and sentiment is strong. This is a recipe, dare I say, for a runaway market, predicated under the auspices of animal spirits.

The only thing that stops this, in my opinion, is a geopolitical event, which of course is very possible.

But for now, I’m bullish, +31bps for the day and in the process of getting 100% long.

Not only did China cut rates by 50bps last night but they also announced a $114b stimulus program to help buoy both the property markets and stocks. The details of the stock program aren’t exactly clear but we do understand that making money in Chinese stocks has been nonexistent for about a decade.

As a result, China and Hong Kong was up more than 4%, most since 2020.

Bottom line analysis: any stimulus out of China is bullish for materials and oil. We are in a monetary expansion phase and should expect more of this from many countries, which ultimately is bullish for stocks.

I’m here with Mom, presiding over a mostly cash portfolio but long some $PEG, $TNA and $TQQQ. The impetus to buy $PEG lies with the concept of making private deals, such as the recent deal between $CEG and $ORCL.

This opportunity is unique to $CEG and partly $PEG because of regulatory concerns that tie utilities to serve their customers. Because $CEG is private they are able to sell their energy to whoever they please. This deal with $ORCL, driven by demand caused by AI, is the impetus for the hottest trade in the market now: nuclear energy.

But since I’m on vacation and not tethered to a screen, I am not positioning in any large amount of individual stocks, opting for a more macro approach.

I’ll be back in the saddle next week.

I’m very bullish but I’m away on vacation so I cannot be bothered with the daily fluctuations of the stock exchange, so I moved to cash. I gained +72bps for the session, in a moderately strong tape. Gains are abundant in commodities, but not bonds. Many of you FOOLS went long treasuries ahead of the Fed, thinking you knew something. You actually know nothing and your actions communicate that.

Going to cash is only temporary and I’ll most likely get back in at a smaller scale before the session ends.

After driving for 9 hrs I arrived at my good friend’s house and immediately went to a German beer hall to knock off a few steins before grabbing a bite. Being in the south since 2019, I forgot how obsessed NYers are with paver walkways and paver driveways and masonry projects. Even on the smallest home, there is ornate paver driveways and I can’t help but to think ROI when I see them.

The plan is to remain here for about a week and then head back to NC, which means I’ll be trading remotely from an iPad and phone next week. I don’t feel disadvantaged, as markets have broken out and should continue to rip higher.

More later

I was traveling most of the day but managed +109bps in spite of making a few bad trades from the road. It was a big NASDAQ day, but it was narrow. The gains were focused in tech and some action on basic materials. Others areas were much more muted and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Reason being: tech was the weakest part of the tape, so it’s only natural for traders to rotate out of lower beta names back into risk. Irrespective the of what happens tomorrow, we have a clean breakout in all indices and should expect new highs soon.

Tomorrow I depart from Fredericksburg, the place where the south vanquished the low disciplined northern aggressors and will find myself in NYC by noon to see friends and family. Since I’m with the dogs, I’m not in a rush to get back and might stay a week, or perhaps longer.

In regards to setting up calls for those interested in learning more about retaining Senior Tropicana to oversee your meager funds, please understand that my time is valuable and do not harangue me with requests if you’re only rolling with $5k at Robinhood.

GOOD DAY.

Listen to me,

I depart tomorrow with Mrs. Fly and two fucking dogs in tow, meandering throughout the southeast corridor heading north, en route into hell (NYC). I chose to drive rather than select a more modern form of transport in order to extend my stay as long as I like, having the dogs alongside for the ride, sicking them to attack people who might approach me without permission.

Because of this, my schedule is busy and I won’t have much time to update the fucking blog, let alone field your calls, asking me to accept your money for proper management. I wanted to pen this blog to inform you, rather emphatically, that we are getting free rides off the backs of the FOMC, who will be quite busy printing new billion dollar bills soon. What I mean by that is this and listen very carefully:

The Fed should not be lowering rates now, but are. They are doing this in an attempt to circumvent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, due to the debt maturity wall that is looming from now till 2028. This unique scenario will provide you and me alike with CHEAP CREDIT for a period not to eclipse 3 years. During the next 3 years, I expect rates to collapse to 3.5% and markets to soar by 100%. This is the free ride.

After this, markets will invariably and categorically CRASH into the 100th anniversary of the 1929 varietal. In a sense and most likely quite literally, we are replaying history and that would make this ‘the roaring twenties’. After we’ve risen enough and the last bear has been shot, markets will run out of steam and perhaps at that time we can relive the wonderful Great Depression era of the 1930s, inevitably leading to war with Germany or someone else we don’t like, to satiate the vampires and caitiffs amongst us.

The predictable nature of today cannot be overstated. Even so, I closed DOWN 12bps, due to my overall bullish outlook for stocks. I am, however, traveling tomorrow so we might crash into the floorboards, and perhaps a bit lower. But with many rates cuts coming down the pipe, it’s only a matter of time when this risk appetite business starts to overheat.

I allocated into the close, which contributed to the small drawdown. I was up about 65bps at session highs; but it was never my intent to position short, as I believe it to be ridiculous, given the circumstances.

But markets will do what they do on a day to day basis and perhaps we do swan dive lower into the open tomorrow, as all of you fucking idiot morons panic out of your positions because the market didn’t jerk you off proper today.

I think when it’s all said and done, the Fed will cut by 300bps, double what is being factored in. The issue here, as I alluded to in an earlier post, is the high levels of debt maturing over the next 3 years, which sets up a loosening cycle from now until 2028.

Initially, markets took off to the upside ad whether that sticks or not is largely immaterial to what this means in the next 6 months: markets should spike and continue to spike based off the premise of ‘multiple expansion.’

I went into the meeting any 60% cash and will maintain this level for another hour or so. I do not like trading on Fed days, because it’s often filled with hot money looking for large swings. Ultimately, this is BULLISH for equities and real estate, and commodities, and inflation, and anything denominated in dollars.