Emotional Ruins

When I passed my series 7, almost immediately after the market cratered and crashed. It halted for trade in 1997 and I was shocked to see the veteran brokers in the boardroom chimp the fuck out. The following year, markets dislocated again and down it went, unceremoniously wiping out speculators with savage comportment.

I was born into this business during the hottest of fires and managed to build a successful business and navigate the pangs and the bangs, never needing to rebuild after my first destruction in 2001. I’ve seen countless people detonate and bore witness to their brain matter festooning the walls and the desks in the boardrooms I’ve parlayed in. At this very moment, I’m aware of a very big producer at a very big firm with millions in the market, fully leveraged to the hilt — getting annihilated on an hour by hour basis. Ideologues get fixed to the gibbet, whipped, removed from the gibbet, racked, drawn and quartered, decapitated.

The anti-climatic motion of a market strewn with disappointment affects the psyche and removes marginal players from the game. This is the way its always been, always will be, until death parts you from this experiment.

Go shave your fucking face. Iron your clothes. Make yourself a good cup of coffee and pay attention to the details. Get yourselves in a good mood and dispel the melancholy. You want to trade this market and make some money? Leave your emotions at the door and let prices sway you. Don’t let my words, as eloquent and persuasive as they might be, move your bias. Look at the god damned screen and, for the love of Christ, do something!

My current holdings. Trade disseminated in real time inside Exodus.

It’s over oilFAGS. There is nothing left to discuss. Your entire industry is in ruins, tatters even. All of Saudi Arabia is now a wasteland. Whole oil fields will soon become sand pits for people to make sand castles or source for materials for glass jars. People who’ve lost their faces will store their teeth in said jars.

I have a keen mind for these sort of disasters and know a snow ball rolling downhill when I see one.

The high yield stresses are intertwined with the fate of WTI — which is shockingly lower by more than 5.5%. Normally, I’d suggest pause after a move like this. Truth is, it does not matter what WTI does tomorrow. The damage has already been done. The prices have gone down low enough to stop production and cause extreme stress on balance sheets.

I averaged up in DRIP, bringing my basis up to $15.84.

I cannot be stopped.

Try to stop me and I’ll rip your arms out from your sockets and bludgeon you to death.

I sold NUGT, KL, and AU, for gains ranging from 7.5% to 11%. With some of the proceeds, I bought some FB. Fucker is breaking out clean. Rationale for the moves, two fold.

1. The oscillator for gold inside Exodus is extended.

Plus, I was heavily overweight the sector. I now hold just EGO and EXK.

Secondly, FB is posting a white or hollow candle today. What does this mean, fuckers? Means plenty.

I’d bet my nuts FB jimmies higher and soon.

All in all, I still have my FAZ, DRV and DRIP positions, kept in the event we reverse and plunge again. Plus, I think oil and banks are somewhat unique in their misery. I have 20% cash, cautiously optimistic for this rally to continue, yet reticent, gloomy, and also doomful.

Ok, I have a balancing act going now — short REITs, banks, oil, long GE, gold, bonds, tech. It’s working, for now. I took my GE position to a 10% weighting based on the assumption that markets are rallying and people will continue to worry about GE into asset sales. It’s wholly possible that GE bends and breaks, shatters my dreams of climbing hard and arduous walls. But it’s also possible that I can get a god damned trade out of it first, and then parlay into comfort amidst cigar fumes and whiskey.

I don’t think markets can rally with WTI getting poleaxed like this. Even still, we might get a bifurcated market, with pockets of strength. For now, I’m betting on GE being one of those zones of zen.

I just spilled an absurd amount of coffee on myself. I usually fill up my cup to the very top and then attempt to walk it to wherever the fuck I am sitting. Without fail, I spill it on myself or the floor every single time.

Speaking of repeatable events, how about that oil? You might want to think twice about buying dips in crude, especially with HYG tanking on a daily basis. We’ve now moved from ‘oil is fucked up’ to ‘oh shit, the entire sector is going to get ass-raped whenever they refinance their debt.’

Ten motherfucking candles in a row. You hear me you fucking faggots? Good.

Where does it end? No one knows. The trade is working, inexorably, and my basis is from $14.28. While this rally is needed and wanted, it cannot last with WTI tanking like this. Use this respite, this small oasis in a sea of dry sand, to raise cash.

Not only does he want the god damned Fed to stop hiking rates, he also wants them to stop their god damned tapering.

I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 18, 2018

Happy morning to you and I hope you’re enjoying the theatre. Futures are up more than 200, yet oil is crushed into the fucking ground — off by more than 2%. Yields are sharply lower, with the 10 yr at 2.83%, and gold is flat. In other words, all of the risk off assets are secured, which makes this young and fresh rally tenuous, at best.

Nevertheless, we’re just around the corner from Xmas and the presents are stacking up next to the tree. Little Jimmy is hoping to get that brand new bee-bee gun and Sally would like a new set of dolls. It would be unfair, perhaps criminal, to see stocks trade any lower so close to the pagan holidays. Nevertheless, I remain long a variety of inverse ETFs, sordid assets designed to break men into pieces — traps for gamblers and the overzealous.

All I ask for on this Xmas is for a very bloody and horrific trading season. Is that too much to ask? Am I being greedy in my desire to see everything cracked asunder and pushed into the sea?

If oil doesn’t bounce, the rally fails. That’s all there is to it.

It was a hard day of toil and tumult. Extricate yourselves from the bottle of whiskey right now and BEHOLD an iBC featured presentation.

THE BLACK FLAG: WHEN BEARSHITTERS ATTACK!

This was a real time account of today’s trading action. Enjoy.

This was a rancid day for longs, even worse for parma-bull retards.

Consider this, there is no place to hide now but gold and bonds. You have been dispatched. The safe haven status for utilities and REITs has been revoked with today’s broken elevator actions.

As such, I stepped in and bought DRV — triple downside REITs. Fuck the REITs and the horse they rode in on. To sum up today’s moves: stopped out of APPF, bought FAZ at $13.13, bought EGO at $0.64. I maintain positions in a few tech stocks, GE, and a slew of precious metal trending up. My largest position is TLT. I intend to make most of my money on the upside, when and if this FUCKER ever stops going lower. While REKT in my long term account, I’m okay with transitional losses, as I get my feet wet on hedging and cementing a longer term bearish narrative in my investment planning.

Does it matter if we’re in a bear market or not? It’s just a label. But prices are sucking lower and bulltards are getting wiped the fuck out clean — removing them physically from their money. I’ll have you know, I am getting LIT THE FUCK UP in my long term account today, but somewhat hedged in my short term with gains in gold, FAZ, and DRIP.

I stepped in and bought some EGO today, thinking the recent bull market in gold lifts junior miners like EGO. There is a potential large upside in a piece of shit like EGO. I do not pretend to know the first thing about gold mining — but I know sentiment and numbers and people are scared AF, in search for havens.

My longs in my trading account will remain until my 10% stops are met. The point of having both longs and shorts is to profit from the spread, which I am doing so today. I was not 100% short because I was cautious. Today I am emboldened by the action to get even MOAR bearish — but, truthfully, it’s times like this that produce sellers exhaustion or some sort of tweet that buoy stocks.

My bias is inexorably for lower prices. However, I am not positioned to make a grande sum on the downside just yet. I am uneasy to short too much into the hole.

Here’s that Gundlach clip.

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach took a shot at passive investment strategies such as index funds on Monday, declaring the investing strategy a “mania” that is causing widespread problems in global stock markets.

“I’m not at all a fan of passive investing. In fact, I think passive investing … has reached mania status as we went into the peak of the global stock market,” Gundlach said, speaking with CNBC’s Scott Wapner on “Halftime Report” in Los Angeles.

“I think in fact that passive investing and robo advisers … are going to exacerbate problems in the market because it’s hurting behavior,” Gundlach added.

Gundlach’s DoubleLine actively manages clients money and has more than $120 billion in assets under management, according to the firm’s website. The exchange-traded market has grown to a $5 trillion juggernaut since the SPDR S&P 500?s inception in 1993. Investors shrugged at the recent recession fears and economic concerns, adding more than $16 billion to U.S.-listed ETFs in the week ending Dec. 13, according to FactSet.

“I wouldn’t advise anyone to be a passive investor,” Gundlach said. “My strongest advice is to not invest in passive U.S. equity funds.”

He said his best idea for 2019 is “capital preservation.” Gundlach defines that as “high quality, lower volatility, lower duration bond funds” he said.

On the flip side, Gundlach said “the worst thing you can do is what everybody has done: Crowd into S&P 500 index funds because that’s the most expensive market.”

The investor made correct predictions for 2018, including a drop in stocks on rising yields and declines in Facebook and bitcoin. He thinks the stock market is headed lower next year, calling for the S&P 500 to fall below the lowest level it hit this year.