Nervous Traders are Still Positioning for Fed Hike Next Week

It’s not logical to position for a Fed hike next week, especially since current CME chances of it happening are just 15%, but that’s exactly what some people are doing today.

Observe the 2yr yield spiking while longer duration bonds sink.

The only reason why that would happen now, aside from a short term liquidity squeeze, is fear of an imminent rate hike. The fuckery is real.

Also, the dollar is soaring v the euro by 0.8% and 1.8% v the pound.

On the bright side, the treasury yield curve has blown out from 73bps to 92bps this week. This is a massive move and very bullish for banks. Essentially, the market is positioning for a Fed hike.

Thr chances of a December hike have risen to 53%, providing traders with somewhat of a cover for making these ridiculous trades.

It has been a long week for me, seemingly on the campaign trail, doing my duty as an American to preside over the destruction of the H. Clinton campaign.

My positioning in the market entails treasuries, gold, short FCX and cash, none of which have done well this week, save the copper turd. Markets are superfluous and always alive with misdirection and gregarious people trying to get rich. I believe, however, in the apocalypse and rather wait for lower prices, else die trying.

Sad news for Marxist Mark. A few years ago, he bought all of the homes around his house for $30m. Since then, he hired architects, designers, landscapers and artists to sketch out his future dream compound, which would entail building four homes around his for the purposes of enjoying life and family.

The Palo Alto Architectual Review Board told him to go fuck himself.

The Architectural Review Board voted 3-1 to recommend that city Planning Director Hillary Gitelman not approve Zuckerberg’s application to replace homes at 1451, 1457 and 1459 Hamilton Ave. and 1462 Edgewood Drive.

Kathy Scott, of the Walker-Warner Architects firm working with Zuckerberg, said the project seeks to expand her client’s space for “residential functions.”

“The idea is just to expand our client’s capacity to enjoy the property: sharing time with friends and family, having more outdoor space to play,” Scott said. “The current property is quite restricted and so this is just giving them more space for their residential functions.”

Mark’s current restrictive multi million dollar house is a mere 5,000 sq ft.

The vision of expanding a single homeowner’s “residential functions” is what raised red flags for board members who say that doing so would ruin the single-family home feel of the Crescent Park neighborhood.

Plans for all four homes meet architecture standards, but a single family using all four properties violates the city’s comprehensive plan and ideals in protecting single-family homes, board members said.

“There’s four homes,” board member Peter Baltay said. “Are there four families living in these homes?”

The Zuckerbergs currently have friends living in a couple of the homes and Scott said the other homes are used as an extension of their living, cooking, dining and entertaining quarters.

Baltay said his view is that these four houses are not separate residences.

“These are part of a larger compound,” Baltay said. “This is something you might find in Atherton: A large estate, a series of guest houses, recreational facilities, movie theaters surrounding a house.”

Board members Wynne Furth and Robert Gooyer agreed and said the floor plans for the homes show that they are not “credible” single-family dwellings.

Though each house has basic bedroom, bathroom, kitchen and laundry facilities to count as a standalone, the layout tells a different story.

Furth said one home has two bedrooms, three washers and dryers, a project room off the garage and “a really nice vegetable garden.”

Another home would be altered into a “great place for a party,” with a great room that’s 40 feet by 30 feet, a service kitchen and another larger room in the basement.

“If these things were put on the market individually, you’d have a hard time selling, because some of them are very unusual,” Gooyer said. “In the context, if you take all four of them, they make sense.”

Furth also said the proposal violates the zoning code when considered as a complex because single lots cannot exceed 20,000 square feet as a way to prevent net loss of housing stock.

Together, the four homes exceed 60,000 square feet. That figure does not include the adjacent property where the Zuckerbergs reside.

Combined with the principal dwelling, Furth said the compound is “even bigger and even more out of compliance.”

Scott said there are no plans to merge the lots or adjust lot lines so that the flexibility and independence of the four lots is maintained for future homeowners.

The Zuckerbergs also plan to remove the pools and maximize the garden areas and maintain the variety of trees, including live oaks, ginkgos and magnolias, Scott said.

“They bought the original house and these other properties in the neighborhood because they love the character of the neighborhood; its significant trees and the very residential scale and the variety of homes, and that’s what we’re endeavoring to preserve,” Scott said.

The project will return to the city’s planning director, who will decide whether to advance the project.

This is promising for Zuck, giving him more time to effect a proper bribe to get this deal closed.

The back and forth of the market is equal to that of that little aluminum can opener on a soda can. You know what I mean, right? As kids, we’d twist that fucker to and fro, reciting the letters of the alphabet out loud. When it fell off, the last letter recited would represent the name of a future girlfriend.

We were devilish boys, bad mostly. I had dozens of friends growing up in my neighborhood and about 2 or 3 of them made something out of their lives. On paper, I was supposed to fail, but I didn’t. I’m too stubborn.

Markets opened down 100. It will not recover unless WTI bounces. The recent drop in crude has become a thorn in the side in an otherwise happy group of bulls.

I’ve never viewed volatile markets favorably. Some people delude themselves by declaring it ‘healthy.’ I always felt ‘healthy’ was up 40 points per day.

That being said, it’s perfectly normal for stocks to struggle in September and recover in October. Heading into the holiday season, it’s imperative that H. Clinton not die and win the election. And, also, retail sales must improve, in order for the market to truly breakout.

Until then, avoid the Grindhouse. Go eat a sandwich and watch a good movie.

Futures have markedly improved, after a big guide up by chip giant, Intel.  Of all things, the company cited an improving PC market as a reason for the rosy outlook. I suppose people are, finally, replacing their old computers for newer models? It had to happen at some point, especially on an enterprising level.

Via Briefing.com

09:04 | INTC | (36.56)
Intel raises Q3 rev & gross margin guidance guidance primarily driven by replenishment of PC supply chain inventory & improving PC demand

Co issues raised guidance for Q3 (Sep), sees Q3 (Sep) revs of $15.3-15.9 bln from $14.4-15.4 bln vs. $14.89 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

The increase in revenue is primarily driven by replenishment of PC supply chain inventory. The company is also seeing some signs of improving PC demand.

The company is forecasting the mid-point of the third-quarter GAAP gross margin range at 62 percent, plus or minus a couple of points, up 2 points versus the prior third-quarter GAAP outlook gross margin midpoint of 60 percent, driven mostly by higher PC unit volume. The midpoint of the third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin range is now forecasted at 63 percent, plus or minus a couple of points, up 1 point versus the prior third-quarter non-GAAP outlook gross margin midpoint of 62 percent.

Third-quarter R&D plus MG&A spending is expected to be ~$5.2 bln, $100 mln higher than the prior expectation of ~$5.1 bln.

All other expectations have been withdrawn and guidance will be updated with the company’s third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 18.

Related Stocks: STX, WDC, AMAT, LRCX, AVGO, MU, AMD, HPQ

The stock is surging on this news, as well as the related tickers above.

I’m guessing if the boys at Deutsche Bank can convince the EU to lower the fine levied against Apple, this can go away nicely.

In what can only be described as comically shocking, the Department of Justice proposed a settlement of $14b with the German bank for crimes against the American people, regarding mortgage fraud.

This fucking shocked the Germans, as they were eating brats and sauerkraut. It’s widely rumored that several board members nearly choked on their sausages upon reading this news and were only saved by drinking a nearby stein, filled with warm beer, to dislodge the meat from their throats.

If they were to agree to such a fine, it would represent 70% of their market cap, a sum forged in the bowels of hell itself.

Deutsche said in a statement it “has no intent to settle these potential civil claims anywhere near the number cited.” The bank emphasized that negotiations have just started and that it expects the outcome to be “similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts.”

The Wall Street Journal first reported the figure, citing sources familiar with the situation.
The company previously thought that a settlement between $2 billion and $3 billion would be fair, as it had already paid $1.9 billion in 2013 to resolve similar claims, the Journal said.

Reuters reported that, in January, Goldman Sachs said it would pay more than $5 billion to settle claims it misled mortgage bond investors during the financial crisis. The following month, Reuters reported that Wells Fargo reached a $1.2 billion settlement over mortgage fraud allegations. The news service also reported that Bank of America came to a $16.65 billion settlement in 2014 and that JPMorgan settled for $13 billion in 2013.

ABN AMRO’s take.

Shares have collapsed in Germny today, off by 8%, or $1.6b in market cap.

Eurostoxx 50 is off by 1.4% now, led lower by the Italian markets grease balling lower by 2.3%. At the top of the kill list are the banks.

Here are some of the notable death notices.

Deutsche Bank -7.4%
Unicredit -4.2%
Soc Gen -3.2%
Credit Suisse -4:8%
UBS -3%
RBS -4.8%
Standard Chartered -3.2%

On the other side of the spectrum are bonds, absolutely soaring in price this morning, led higher by a collapse in German bunds off by 5bps to -0.02%

US futs are -97.

Things are beginning to get testy, as both the EU and Britain show signs of extreme annoyance due to the prospective negotiations. Sources of the Telegraph are saying EU officials believe that if they make the BREXIT negotiations difficult and arduous, Britain will give up on the idea. This, coming after Farage throwing a fit over Theresa May seemingly giving up on key BREXIT promises, will drive Nigel fucking nuts and will, unquestionably, cause BREXIT supporters to apply pressure to PM May to invoke Article 50, post haste.

More than five senior EU figures interviewed by The Telegraph this week expressed doubts that Britain would go through with Brexit when confronted by the “reality of the bureaucratic nightmare” and the “insane act of economic self-harm”, as they referred to Brexit.

One senior British official involved in the set-up for the coming negotiations said the EU elite “seem to think the game is to make us change our minds”.

This stance has left representatives fighting to explain to European leaders how “dangerous” a game they were playing, and how “unlikely” it was to succeed.

A second UK official source with knowledge of the talks added there was a danger that positions in the Brexit talks were already becoming “dangerously entrenched”, even before Theresa May invokes Article 50 that will open formal EU-UK “divorce” proceedings.

The EU’s choice of lead negotiators – the French finance expert Michel Barnier, for the European Commission and Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and arch-ferderalist, for the Parliament – has also been taken as a clear sign of the EU’s determination to drive a hard bargain.

The appointments were described on Thursday as “very, very tough” by Herman van Rumpuy, the former European Council president, who warned that negotiations would be “difficult” for Britain.

In the European Parliament, which must ratify any Article 50 deal agreed by the EU 27, the mood against Britain was further soured this week by personal attacks on Mr Verhofstadt by former Ukip leader Nigel Farage and the Brexit Secretary, David Davis.

Mr Davis was reported to have referred to his future interlocutor as “Satan” when addressing the Foreign Affairs select committee, while Mr Farage – long a thorn in the side of pro-EU MEPs – lambasted Mr Verhofstadt as a “fanatic” whose appointment amounted to “declaring war” in the coming talks.

Mr Davis’s office subsequently clarified the “Satan” remark, saying that the Secretary of State had been jokingly declining the committee’s chairman’s invitation to be rude about comments made by Mr Verhostadt, but the distinction was lost in Strasbourg.

In his oratorical performance to the mongrels in the EU, Farage first congratulated the former head of the EU, Barrosa, for landing a sweet  new role at Goldman Sachs. Then, he fucking detonated a fury of verbal explosives on the EU’s chief negotiator appointed to BREXIT, Mr. Fucking Verhofstadt.

Watch.

The Clinton Collapse is taking on new meaning, now in the polls.

The LA Times is showing Trump with a 6 point lead in their recent national poll. He’s also crushing her in Ohio, tied up in Florida and gaining in Pennsylvania.

Out tonight is nothing but doom for the infirmed Clinton campaign, who seems to be losing her landslide lead over Trump in the all important state of Michigan.

“The race is tightening a lot in Michigan,” said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster. “It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, (but) there has been a shift toward Trump. Whether it’s going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined.”

It appears the RACIST XENOPHONE DEPLORABLE are against unchecked immigration into their already reprehensible state of waste and rot.

Hopefully, Hillary can remain healthy. Some think if she doesn’t, well, Obama might just cancel the elections.

I can’t even call them ‘liberal’ websites. There is nothing liberal about these people. If anything, I’m the liberal here, fully supportive of freedoms and the truth and rule of law. These devils in the media are just making shit up, out of thin air, and getting away with it. It’s subversive and also malicious, which is why I am somewhat fired up to point some of this stuff out.

Look at this idiot tweet by the demonic website dubbed “The Hill” just a few minutes ago.

Bear in mind, this absurdity was vehemently denied by the Trump campaign many, many hours ago. Trump isn’t interested in having a gay vampire tech guy on the supreme court, ok?

“As we told The Huffington Post, there is no truth to this whatsoever,” campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks said. “Mr. Trump has already released a list of names that he would be considering.”

A spokesman for Thiel told CNBC the billionaire technology investor “hasn’t had any conversations about a Supreme Court nomination and has no interest in the job.”

“Huffington Post’s sources are lying,” Thiel spokesman Jeremiah Hall said.

It was the fuckers from the Huffington Post who first broke the onionesque story onto the internets.

This shit isn’t even a good lie. In addition to that, non-mentally deranged people don’t read HuffPo, so it’s doubtful that their target audience– the homophobic white male– would be alarmed by this ‘revelation’.

Look at how these imbeciles word the piece as if we’re all 2nd graders and don’t see what they’re trying to do here.

Trump “deeply loves Peter Thiel”…

Were Trump to actually nominate Thiel, he would be by far the richest Supreme Court nominee of the modern era, with an estimated net worth of $2.7 billion.

If nominated and confirmed, he would be the first openly gay member of the Court.

A gay tech billionaire who supports marriage equality, Thiel is a self-described libertarian and pursues quixotic projects like government-free sea colonies and infinite life extension. He would be a radical departure from the nominees on Trump’s list…

Thiel is deeply conservative, however, and his more fanciful ideas can sometimes obscure his support for broadly mainline Republican policies

In a 2009 essay, Thiel wrote: “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.” Part of the reason for that incompatibility, Thiel argued, was that women had gained the right to vote and that the government sometimes helps poor people.

In his 2014 book Zero to One, Thiel praised monopolies, arguing that competition destroys value rather than creating it. He also wrote about applying for clerkships with Scalia and Justice Anthony Kennedy as a younger man. Both justices ultimately turned him down.

Yeah, if Kermit the Frog was nominated to the Supreme Court, he’d be the first muppet to serve it.

The author of this drivel is Cristian Farias.

The Huffington Post’s DC Bureau Chief Ryan Grim responded: “Our reporting stands for itself.”

Really? These people are comically fucked in the head.

In her first day back on the campaign trail, the bitch, Hillary Clinton, welcomed a mostly female press pool to toss some softball questions at her, regarding the seizure she endured at the 9/11 ceremony that was passed off as pneumonia by her PR team of devils.

Truth be told, I don’t know what to think about the optics of having an all girl team, clad in red–save Andrea Mitchell who leads the pack forward to her majesty–converge around Hillary to ask infantile questions–such as “why didn’t Timmy Kaine know that you were sick”?

Look at this absurdity. Where’s the catamite, John Harwood, to serve the girls cucumber water?