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Yearly Archives: 2016

Death By Victory: The Republican Party Has Trumploaded

Put your bias aside for a moment. Forget about the man, the legend, the myth: Donald J. Trump. You’re going to remember this election for the rest of your pathetic lives. Now some of you are so sensitive to read or hear of opposing viewpoints that you literally go out of your way to email me to stop blogging about Trump. I envision many of you having conniption fits, seizing up, at the sight of a pro-Trump article. But let me remind you, these are indeud very interesting times. It’s important that I be permitted to freely vent about it, else I will harbor great and innumerable resentments and disdain towards you for trying to restrict my free speech. Indulge me, if you would be so kind.

I take exception to your fascist ways.

At any rate, the greatest part of this election isn’t the specter of H. Clinton being convicted and jailed on the same day of her eventual inauguration. It isn’t the fact that some old communist NYC pretzel and knish stand vendor is taking the Clinton war machine on and beating it. It isn’t the fact that Ted Cruz look and acts like a villain and has been dubbed Lyin’ Ted by someone who has perfected the art of sophistry. It isn’t the fact that a one time hard-nosed Congressman, who was renowned for being an asshole, is now as gentle as Mr. Rogers–clamoring and begging to unite the American people behind his mediocrity.

The unique aspect of this election is the total and complete destruction of the checkered pant’d party called the GOP.

It is, without question, finished.

I’ve never seen such rage towards a front runner in an election, have you? Some of these conservative talk show hosts, like Mark Levin, are parroting the talking points of the MSNBC, CNN, NPR liberally programmed robots, to attack Trump like rabid jackals around endless bowls of berries and grass. Moreover and without question, the republican establishment hates Trump more than Hillary and Bernie combined. As a matter of fact, I am sure if Hillary and Bernie combined to form a giant puffy faced female communist robot, whose sole mission was to destroy millionaires and billionaires, the country club’d comeovers at the RNC would prefer that to Trump.

He is their albatross. His is their greatest fear. He is their end.

Look at some of these conservative sites and the articles they have brandished on their front page. If I were a democrat zealot, like half of you, I’d be laughing my ass off, as the other party literally and figuratively committed suicide in the face of unparalleled victory.

Fox News
Fox

Hot Air
Hotair

National Review
National Review

Weekly Standard
Weekly Standard

Now that’s just a handful of the right wing sites out there. Let’s not mention the daily hit shows by Megyn Kelly and other “right wingers” whose sole purpose on this planet is to stop Trump–because he is Hitler, and Hitler was bad, and should’ve been stopped early on. They’re, essentially, following the same narrative as liberal democrat sites. I suspect the GOP will, in fact, deny Trump the nomination at the convention, at which point he will walk out, with his supporters, and either run for President under an independent party of simply say “fuck all of you, I’m rich” and melt away–watching the GOP burn from within. Either way, Trump is the only GOP candidate in the field that can win, like it or not.

Finally, there is a very high likelihood that this internal riff will result in a Hillary win; and subsequently, a very liberal supreme court will be appointed by the end of her first 4 years in office. Once that occurs, I am sure all of the asshole sites above will run editorials about how doomed America is and how evil Hillary is, without ever mentioning the integral part they played in creating her ascension.

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Chinese Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 50.2, First Advance in 7 Months

Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2, ahead of expectations and the first advance in 7 months. This might be something of a sell the news catalyst, as far as markets are concerned. Japanese markets aren’t giving a shit about this–as corporate sentiment came in at 3 year lows–helping the NIKKEI plunge by 2%.

pmi

Nevertheless, a positive PMI is better than a weaker one, so it’s good news.

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A Crude Reality: ‘Expectations Are for the Borrowing Bases to be Reduced’ (REQUIRED READING)

The following video is all you need to know about the current state of the oil patch. Forget the propaganda and the analyst notes. This much is certain: hedges placed in 2014 are rolling off. Banks will no longer comply with the empty promises that oil will soon streak to $100.

Only the strongest will survive.

Bear in mind, our friend Buddy here is on the ground, in the trenches, doing the numbers for the oil companies. All you need to know and understand about what’s around the bend for this industry can be found in his body language. Please ignore the cocaine addled hosts who get very excited for just about anything.

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Propaganda Alert: Bakken Shale Break Evens at $30

We truly live in an Alice in Wonderland world. Ahead of a 2017 debt refinance schedule that is sure to leave many oil companies in ruin, new propaganda is being leaked out to suggest that the Bakken Shale is now profitable as low as $30 per barrel.

Industry insiders, please opine on this.

Ever since WTI collapsed, we were reminded of Bakken breakevens in excess of $75 per barrel, some even higher. Since then, we’ve witnessed companies in the patch hemorrhage cash– due to career ending operating losses. The share prices of those stocks have collapsed, some as much as 100%. But now we are entreated to “new news”, suggesting that everything we knew of the Bakken was a lie. Moreover, and with considerable magic, we are now able to produce crude oil– in a region that is renowned for arduous extraction– quite profitably.

INVEST IN OUR SECONDARY OFFERINGS NOW AND PLEASE DO EXTEND OUR LINES OF CREDIT!

Love,

Bakken Shale

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Morgan Stanley: Beware of Earnings Season; Firm Sees 10% Downside From Current Levels

I’ve been saying this my entire life. Always fear the facts, and relish the fantasy of promise. Understand?

For years, earnings season has offered nothing but misery for investors, as results disappointed on a large scale. An economy growing at 0.6% isn’t one to fall in love with. In between earnings reports, we get to play house and pretend that things are getting better.

But when the actual data comes streaming in, like a raging river of blood, we quickly find religion and repent for our sins of greed and gluttony.

Fade the rallies. Board the ark.

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Jay Z Serves Legal Notice to Previous Tidal Owners, Cites They Inflated Subscriber Numbers

Well, well, well, what do we have here? A little fraud coupled with predatory salesmanship to unsuspecting an unsuspecting rapper?

Jay Z is pissed off and is likely to sue Aspiro AG for damages. Tidal claims Aspiro inflated their subscription numbers in order to rob Jay Z for $56 million.

“It became clear after taking control of Tidal and conducting our own audit that the total number of subscribers was actually well below the 540,000 reported to us by the prior owners,” Tidal said in an e-mailed statement. “As a result, we have now served legal notice to parties involved in the sale.”

Aspiro disagrees:

“We disagree with the accusations in the letter and any potential claims,” said Anders Rikter, a spokesman for Schibsted. “We would like to point out that the company was listed on the stock exchange with everything that entails regarding transparent financial reporting.”

Jay Z has changed management several times and even attempted to sell it to Samsung, a deal that collapsed like a cheap lawnchair.

It appears Mr. HOV is stuck with Tidal and its 3 million subscribers.

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Anbang Threatens to Walk from Starwood Bid; $HOT Plummets

All of the anti-China Anbang rhetoric is, apparently, pissing off the people who are willing to drop $15 billion on those American bastards.

Headlines are scrolling now that suggests China Anbang will walk away from the bid if it isn’t taken seriously. The Marriot execs must be high fiving now, at the old country club, clad in their checkered pants.

Meanwhile…

hot

UPDATE: Dow Jones is now reporting Anbang has walked away from Starwood, middle fingers in the air, hating on checkered pants.

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New York State to Join California in Raising Minimum Wage to $15 per hr

How dare lawmakers go against ‘free markets’ by hiking the minimum wage for burger flippers to $15 per hr. How the fuck do they expect McDonald’s and Burgerrr’d King to take excess profits to buy back shares and grant the top 0.001% of the company lavish stock options?

THIS IS PREPOSTEROUS!

America deserves slave wages, in order to compete with foreign slaves at FOXCONN and other well to do companies. It will be very interesting to see all of those miserable Subway shoppes close down because their slaves took so much of the excess profits.

Why, at $15 per hr, that means the average slave will make approximately $2,100 per mo, or $25k per year.

mcd

THIS IS PREPOSTEROUS!

Obviously, this law was concocted by red communists who HATE small businesses and only want to ‘give away’ all of the excess profits to undeserving teenage punks, working side jobs while stacking up insurmountable debts, which will haunt them for eternity, as they hop from one plantation to the next.

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FRANTIC SCRAMBLE TO THE ARK: Treasuries Enjoy Best Start to a New Year Since 2008

Go ahead and laugh at me, as I build the ark, packing giraffe’s, zebra and a few humans onto it. I am not the only one buying treasuries. As a matter of fact, it has become a hedge fund fav.

I am going to quote a retard from BBG news in a second. Just know, I haven’t the slightest idea where he’s getting his numbers from. I posit he’s looking at shorter duration treasuries.

Treasuries have returned 3.1 percent this year, the best start to a year since 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data, amid financial-market volatility and concern that global growth is slowing. Fed officials this month lowered their median projection to two interest-rate increases in 2016 from four at the December meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said this week that an uncertain global environment calls for a more gradual approach to tightening policy.

“The tone of the market has changed dramatically” since Yellen spoke, said Thomas Roth, senior Treasury trader in New York at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. “The rate structure changed, the curve changed, and today is a continuation of that.’’

TLT, 20 yr+ treasuries, are higher by 9% for 2016, no including dividends, which are paid monthly. This is, by far, the single best, low beta, performer of 2016. When it’s all said and done, people just want a little yield. The oil space and their spastic pipeline schemes have imploded. The high yield ETFs have proven to be heart attack material. So, and in very somber tones, investors have put hat in hand and gotten on the government treasury line. It’s a very sad thing to see, all of these once virile men hiding in treasuries.

Nevertheless, I am playing TLT strategically and couldn’t care less about dividends, although I gladly accept them. I am holding TLT until the yield curve, 2s and 10s, inverts. That will equate to supreme winship on my behalf. I might even get to sell TLT 20, 30 maybe 40 points higher from current prices.

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Shares of $MDVN Light a Fire Under the Whole Biotech Sector

After announcing that they’d hired JP Morgan to discuss ‘takeover approaches’ and this morning’s Credit Suisse note that said the company was worth $75 on a takeover, the entirety of the biotech sector–led by MDVN–has caught fire today. It’s worth noting, the $75 target, affixed by Credit Suisse on a takeover, is an all-time high. This has the crazy people out shopping biotech again.
mdvn

INCY +6%
BMRN +6%
JAZZ +6%
ALNY +7%
SGEN +4%
IONS +5.5%
JUNO +5.5%

Then you have a slew of smaller biotechs, like RARE, ACRS, EDIT, up double digits. We’ve seen this all before. Nevertheless, biotech has been the worst performer of Q1, lower by 27%. Many of these stocks are down 50% over the past 6 months, due to political jawboning and also because of VRX. The core thesis against the sector is that pricing power will dissipate, as the politicians crack down on predatorial, Valeant like, practices.

We’ll see about that.

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