The LA Times tracking poll is viewed as the most accurate, mainly because it has been consistent and without fuckery. Some argue that it’s skewed in favor of Trump. I’d argue it meshes nicely with crowd attendance at the rallies of the prospective Presidential candidates.
Either way, Trump has broken out to the upside and markets revile it.
All of the typical risk off assets are buoyed, such as gold, yen and bonds. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank (not Lehman), WTI and copper are lower. Wall Street is scared shit of change and Trump is promising a titanic shift in policy.
On other small addendum, the Mexican peso is off by another 0.76% v the dollar.
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