Pre-Debate Poll: Who Will You Vote For?

All of my previous polls ended with Trump at 70%. This one is running at 75%, pretty much in line with the recent surge of Trump in polls. I realize my audience isn’t representative of America, since my followers are intelligent and not beholden to government to feed their families. Welfare folks aside (incredibly insensitive), I need some participation from as many of you as possible, especially the silent Never Trumpers and Hillary catamites.

(pre-debate poll) Who Will You Vote For?

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 26, 2016

When did Twitter explicitly become the Stasi for oppressive regimes on the internet? A widely followed journalist who writes for Huffpo, a true liberal in the sense he wants freedom for his people, was contacted by Twitter and told his account was to be blocked for ‘instigating terrorism’, a complaint levied by the Turkish government.

Really Jack?

Most leftists relished in the censorship when it only targeted conservatives. The unfortunate evolution of oppression is that it eventually encompasses all. The left will devour itself in its never ending quest to censor out the non-chic.

In a plea to EU nation states, ECB Chief, Mario Draghi begged members to unleash the growth from the caves and ancient cellars they’ve been keeping it. He’s finding his job incredibly woeful these days, mandated to spend $90b per month on asset purchases which are becoming increasingly scarce; thus the reason why rates are negative and the entirety of Europe’s bond market is a complete fabrication.

What Draghi wants is for the fucking Germans to stop being so German. He wants fiscal cooperation, which is Italian for ‘spend as much money as you possible can. This is Milan.’

“Europeans are calling on our institutions to bring tangible benefits to their everyday lives,” the ECB president said in testimony to European Parliament lawmakers on Monday. “Actions by national governments are needed to unleash growth, reduce unemployment and empower individuals, while offering essential protections for the most vulnerable.”

Draghi has grown increasingly vocal in his calls for elected politicians to boost spending and reform their economies as the ECB struggles to stoke inflation. The central bank’s program to buy 80 billion euros ($90 billion) a month of debt faces scarcity concerns and its negative interest rates have prompted criticism by banks and savers.

“Low rates are a symptom of the underlying economic situation,” Draghi said. “Other policy actors need to do their part, pursuing fiscal and structural policies which will contribute to a self-sustaining recovery and increase the economic growth potential of the euro area.”

Investors are unleashing a can of whoopass on Draghi instead, sending the Eurostoxx 50 lower by 1.8% and German bunds to -0.11%.

Board the ark.

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank issued a bunch of meaningless statements today, in an effort to quell fears that Europe’s largest bank is about to go kaput. All of this is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis when one asshole after the next reminded us that ‘everything was fine’ and ‘there was no need for new capital’. More often than not, the very next day they’d file an offering. It was egregious.

I find is hard to believe that DB won’t raise capital, considering their balance sheet structure and $8b shortfall to cover legal settlements with the US.

“John Cryan at no point asked the German Chancellor for the government to intervene in the U.S. Justice Department’s mortgages case,” a Deutsche Bank spokesman said, adding that the bank would meet its challenges on its own.

“There is currently no question of a capital increase. We are meeting all regulatory requirements,” the spokesman said.

In a separate television interview, the spokesman stressed what he said were Deutsche Bank’s strong credit portfolio and liquidity, and low value-at-risk.

“The third quarter is almost over and I can tell you today we are fine and very comfortable here,” he told CNBC.

Mediobanca said a rights issue looked inevitable.

“John Cryan always said that a rights issue would only be triggered by a larger-than expected litigation charge and it appears increasingly likely that Deutsche Bank investors will be asked to post bail for Deutsche’s past crimes,” Mediobanca analysts said in a note to clients.

The market isn’t buying it and has sided with the Mediobanca analyst instead.

Deutsche Bank has a market cap of $18b and a balance sheet of $1.8t.

First, let’s talk about what’s important. The yen is trading 100.44 v the dollar, a smidgen away from the 100 level which is supposed (allegedly) to bring forth the apocalypse. Instantaneously, robots will turn against humans and animals will break loose from the zoo, sending the human species into panic mode. Even suicide bombers will lose their purpose to live and simply cut their own heads off, quietly, in their bathrooms.

Gold is up and oil is surging by 2%. You’d think those two ingredients would make for a nice market breakfast, no?

Fucking wrong.

The Germans are at it again, this time ruining the world with their banks. The DAX is off by 2.2%, led by shares of Deutsche Bank getting clown slapped the fuck lower by almost 7%. These are fresh, all time, record lows, for Europes largest bank and bagholder of horribly bad Greek debt.

As such is the case, markets have diverged from oil — opening lower by 140.

For now, the gold mine and the ark (TLT) are the preferred denizens for market participants.

Trump’s senior communications director, Jason Miller, said the Trump campaign is about to unleash a $140 million ad blitz, of which $100m will be on the teevee, while another $40m will be in the digital format. The ads will be targeting battleground states, such as Florida, N. Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maine and New Mexico. Forty million worth of the ads will play nationally.

In other words, he’s gonna make ad agencies rich again.

To date, Trump has spent a fraction on ads compared to Clinton, $22m v $124m.

Considering Trump is +2 in the latest Bloomberg national poll, I’d say his campaign is operating at a much higher rate of efficiency than the government hacks in the Clinton camp.

The headlines range anywhere from fresh capital concerns to Merkel saying ‘nein’ to state aid. The essence of the matter is leverage and DB is the most leveraged bank on the planet. This isn’t mere conjecture on my behalf, but the facts stated by the FDIC.

Then there’s the $14b US bill to settle rigging our mortgage market that has everyone panicking, running for the exits.

At the present, DB only has $6.2b set aside, indelibly fucked.

Germany’s biggest bank would be “significantly under-capitalized” even assuming enough provisions to cover an eventual settlement with the U.S. Justice Department, Andrew Lim, an analyst at Societe Generale SA, said in a note earlier this month. A settlement range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion would leave the German lender room to settle other legal issues, while any additional $1 billion in litigation charges would erode 24 basis points in capital, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts wrote.

This is all having an onerous affect on the shares, now off by almost 6%. The entirety of Europe is prisoner to this fiasco, which is record lows for Europe’s largest bank whilst equity markets gently drift towards record highs. Talk about a disconnect with reality.

I’ve decided to live tweet the affair. But instead of driving traffic to Twitter, the land ruled by a dystopian overlord seeking to oppress wanton threats of violence and mayhem, I had my IT specialist — the world famous VINCENZO ILLUMINATI — embed my twitter stream on an iBC page.

Bookmark it now, for the sake of posterity and a source of laughter.

Aside from live tweeting this grande affair, one that is forecasted to attract more viewers than the final episode of Mash –which incidentally was complete drivel — I’ve upped the ante and proposed a drinking game, accompanied by a hashtag.

#HillaryCoughedTakeaShot

The rules are simple. Every time she coughs, take a shot of vodka. In the event she goes on a 4 minutes tirade, ask your loved one’s to make funeral arrangements and to put the estate in order, for I doubt you’ll be able to withstand a 4 minute guzzle off a vodka bottle.

For the great many of you, the thirty percent of the nation or so, who support Hillary, I entreat you to join this celebration of health and wellness. I am certain you’ll leave the debates with a sound mind and body.

Who will win the debate and will it matter? God knows what will happen. All I know is that there’s a distinct chance she might seize up and fall off the stage –gagging and coughing all the way to the ground — while the orange glow of Trump manifests itself and transfixes an otherwise hostile media into becoming amiably docile.

See you tomorrow, ladies and gents.

It’s a good thing H. Clinton will face off against D. Trump tomorrow, to finally show the world how likable, and up to the energetic level, it takes to lead the free world. But in the meantime, Citi is out with a note of caution, wholly freaked the fuck out over the specter of forcing them to rejigger their earnings estimates for all of those multi national conglomerates.

In light of Trump being +4 in the latest LA Times poll, Citi has upped the chances of a Trump win to 40%. No word as to how they’ve deduced such a number. Perhaps it was drawn out from a clown hat and then shot out from a cannon, into a lever which then catapulted a cream pie into the face of the analyst that wrote it.

As such, Citi cites a risk to the gold trade and for a rise in rates, disturbing the status quo and everything that comes with it.

“Polls have started to tighten ahead of the U.S. presidential election, and Citi has raised the probability of a Trump victory,” the bank said in the note. “We expect a Trump win would bring out higher volatility in gold and forex, which in turn should lead to higher volumes in other precious metals.”

“Citi’s base case is for a Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies, which would leave U.S. and global growth expectations relatively unchanged,” the bank said, while describing the U.S. contest as “increasingly bizarre.”

“But a Trump victory is a wild card and Citi expects this, among lingering uncertainties from Brexit and elsewhere, may cap the prospects for global growth to pick up in the remainder of the year,” it said.

Yes, how bizarre it would be to see an American President look out for Americans first, and not the capricious whims of an otherwise elitist class of global clown car traveling pigs, who place shareholder over country each and every time.

The events underway in Aleppo are in fact tragic on a biblical scale. There are several schools of thought, pertaining to military strategy and how to defeat an enemy. The first is the General Sherman method of total war that causes the enemy and the people supporting them to hate war, which leads to a lasting peace. The other is the current halfway in milquetoast method practiced by U.S. generals, which has us fighting for the same lands and same foes as we did more than a decade ago. There is an argument to be made for quick, decisive action, over a long drawn out affair that ends up being even more cruel than indiscriminate bombing.

Either way, war is terrible.

Both the US and Britain upped their rhetoric against Russia today at the UN Security Council meeting. While the Russian government is clearly supporting Assad and his forces, it remains unclear who exactly we’re supporting. ISIS?

The United Nations Security Council met on Sunday at the request of the United States, Britain and France to discuss the escalation of fighting in Aleppo following the announcement on Thursday of an offensive by the Syrian army to retake the city.

“What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not counter-terrorism, it is barbarism,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, told the 15-member council.

“Instead of pursuing peace, Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian convoys, hospitals and first responders who are trying desperately to keep people alive,” Power said.

“In Syria hundreds of armed groups are being armed, the territory of the country is being bombed indiscriminately and bringing a peace is almost an impossible task now because of this,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told the council.

Britain’s U.N. ambassador, Matthew Rycroft, said on Sunday the U.S. and Russian bid to bring peace to Syria “is very, very near the end of its life and yes the Security Council needs to be ready to fulfill our responsibilities.”

“The regime and Russia have instead plunged to new depths and unleashed a new hell on Aleppo,” Rycroft told the council. “Russia is partnering with the Syrian regime to carry out war crimes.”

“It is time to say who is carrying out those air strikes and who is killing civilians,” Power said. “Russia holds a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. This is a privilege and it is a responsibility. Yet in Syria and in Aleppo, Russia is abusing this historic privilege.”

As Syria’s U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari began addressing the council, Power, Rycroft and French U.N. Ambassador Francois Delattre walked out of the chamber, diplomats said.

“Any political solution can only be successful by providing the requisite conditions through intensified efforts to fight terrorism,” Ja’afari told the council. “The real war on terrorism has never started yet. The advent of Syrian victory is imminent.”

Let us all remember that these events were telegraphed when Russia refused to sign peace accord, due to American demands for secrecy, the the bombings of Syrian soldiers which provided aid to ISIS.