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Monthly Archives: September 2016

Wall Street and Main Street Divergence Widens, as Leading Economic Indicators Worsen in August

I’ve never seen such a disconnect with reality. Even bringing this up, at a time when markets are at new record highs makes me feel ashamed, almost embarrassed to mention news that is bad. See, I’m not making up the news, just interpreting it. If some people are beguiled by a bearish tone on my blog, I’d like to entreat you to get rid of all the negative headlines out there so that I can join you in your war against the bears.

New record highs and the economic conditions continue to deteriorate.

Does it even matter anymore?

Via Briefing.com

Leading Economic Index Turns Negative in August
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined 0.2% in August (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) on the back of an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.4%) for July. This was the second time over the last four months that the index has been negative.

The key takeaway from the report is that it reflected the lingering disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. To wit, positive contributions from the financial components were more than offset by large negative contributions from average weekly manufacturing hours and new orders.

The largest drags on the index in August were average weekly manufacturing hours (-0.13 percentage points) and ISM new orders (-0.13 percentage points) while the largest boosts came from the interest rate spread (+0.13 percentage points) and stock prices (+0.05 percentage points).
Notwithstanding the decline in August, the leading economic index increased 0.9% for the six-month period ending in August versus increasing 0.2% during the previous six months.
The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.1% in August after increasing 0.3% in July.
The Lagging Economic Index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.2% in July.

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Hillary Clinton on Between Two Ferns with Zach Galifianakis!

Yes, I know she’s a super evil villain. But every once in a while, even super villains do funny shit to engender the adoration of the plebeian class of people. I do not, however, fall in under the auspices of ordinary social order. But I did find this somewhat amusing. Admittedly, I might’ve chuckled once or twice.

I’m a big fan of Between Two Ferns. I’ve seen them all, as it appeals to my dry humor personality.

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A Massive Celebration of Life, Liberty and Easy Money is Underway

I did warn you bears it was a trap.

Traders are cavorting outside the NYSE with just shirts on (extra cock shorts). Their entire genitalia exposed, as they traverse the streets of Wall, rolling into the City Square dick guillotines. Any and all bears will rounded up for sentencing and placed into this arcane device. For posterity purposes, just know that it is I who relished in the idea first of killing short sellers with medieval torture devices.

On days like today, with both European and American markets shooting higher amidst a flurry of energetic buying in commodities and bonds, I am proud to call myself a member of the enlightened cadre of money changers. The wall of worry is built with the bones and the marrow of those who dared to tare it down. If you were to ask me ‘Fly, how did that wall get there to begin with?’ I couldn’t tell you. That’s chicken v egg shit, way above my pay grade.

So how am I doing today? Old man good.

Many of you whipper snappers are making, hell, 10-15% in some of your brainless stocks that keep chugging higher. I’m merely partaking in a small enjoyment of gains, long TLT, GLD, AUY, AU and ABX. Some of my gains are being offset by FCX short, which has melted higher due to a renewed bullishness in China. But my overall thesis has proven to be correct. I’m no longer interested in maximum potential gains. Instead, I favour high percentage returns with the least amount of risk. I emphatically believe both bonds and gold represent that narrative supremely.

As mentioned earlier, debts are assets. Good news is good news. Bad news is good news. Up is up and down is up.

Up, up, up.

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Twitter Suspends Instapundit for Remark Leveled Against Charlotte Rioters

Glenn Reynolds, conservative law professor and blogger at Instapundit was suspended on Twitter today for tweeting ‘run them down, referring to rioters in Charlotte who blocking roads and beating the shit out of people.

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Instapundit is a legendary blog amongst conservatives. He’s been at it a long time and is generally a thorn in the side of the left. This is a major victory for the left. By removing Glenn from Twitter, his sphere of influence lessons and his audience will shrink.

Naturally, people will make this a freedom of speech thing. But the truth is, there is no such thing on platforms like Twitter or Facebook. They can do as they please. The only way to affect change for their policies is to sell their stock or to buy their stock and become activists for change.

If you’re an online publisher or anyone with influence, just know the mood has changed on Twitter and Facebook. Gone are the days when I could threaten and menace people and offer to kick them down sewer pipes for fucking with my flow. Any of the shit I said back in 2009-2014 would get be tossed the fuck off their platform today.

They’re watching you and waiting for you to slip. Don’t give them an opportunity. If you do, you had it coming.

Update: Glenn responds to his suspension.
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Wait, What? Italy is Turning Bad Debt into Assets

I had to read this one a few times to understand what they’re trying to scheme up here. If I’m reading this correctly, Italian banks are going to be able to magically disappear annoying bad debts from their balance sheets by securitizing them and also retaining the senior notes, by using government guarantees.

They’ll be able to use it as collateral for deals, effectively turning a debt into a fucking asset. Lolz. How wonderful.

Banca Popolare di Bari SCpA is set to become the first Italian lender to use a government guarantee meant to help banks securitize bad loans for sale. Instead of selling the whole lot, the small cooperative bank plans to retain the bulk of the notes, which it can use as collateral in other transactions, according to people familiar with the matter. At the same time, it will wipe the full 480 million euros ($539 million) of bad loans from its books, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.

The deal may provide a template for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s plan to help banks reduce a pile of about 360 billion euros of troubled loans, equal to a quarter of Italy’s gross domestic product. As part of a deal reached with the European Union in January, banks can bundle bad loans into securities and buy state guarantees for the least-risky portions, provided those notes have an investment-grade credit rating.

“The Popolare di Bari deal will set the benchmark for other Italian lenders planning to structure securitizations with state guarantees on senior-ranking notes,” said Jacopo Ceccatelli, chief executive officer of Marzotto SIM SpA, a Milan-based broker-dealer. “It may make the structure more appealing if banks are allowed to remove bad debt from books while keeping the senior tranche.”

Popolare di Bari got informal approval from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the Bank of Italy to keep the senior portion of its securitization, while also removing the entire face value of the bad loans from its books, the people said. The bank plans to sell the mezzanine and equity tranches by Sept. 29, one of the people said.

“The derecognition from the books of the whole debt makes sense, because the senior tranche is backed by a guarantee that removes any risks linked to loan recoveries,” said Vincenzo Longo, a strategist for IG Markets Ltd. in Milan. “These deals in any case will force banks to write down loans.”

The bad loans underlying Popolare di Bari’s securitization were priced at 150.5 million euros, or about 31 percent of face value, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The 126.5 million-euro senior portion of the securitization is rated Baa1, three levels above junk, and pays 50 basis points more than the six-month euro interbank offered rate, Moody’s said in a Sept. 2 report.

The retained senior tranche can be used as collateral for interbank lending, though not for European Central Bank financing transactions, the people said. The structure could also allow banks to reduce interest payments on senior notes and increase them on riskier tranches to attract outside investors, said Francesco Castelli, a London-based money manager at Banor Capital, which oversees more than 4.5 billion euros.

Popolare di Bari will pay about 3 percentage points for the securitization and state guarantee, the people said. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is arranging the deal, while Prelios SpA reviewed the portfolio and will manage the recovery of loans sold to investors.

The bank plans to securitize another 400 million euros of bad debt by March, with a senior tranche covering at least 80 percent, the people said.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, Italy’s third-largest bank, plans to securitize 28 billion euros of bad debt for 33 percent of the gross value and may seek a government guarantee on as much as 6 billion euros of the 9 billion euro package.

“Retaining the senior tranche may help sellers to make riskier tranches more appealing to external investors,” Castelli said. “If the Popolare di Bari securitization works, many other Italian banks will look to replicate it on a larger scale.”

What does this mean for stocks? Well, it means Italy is on the verge of pulling a gigantic accounting trick with PWC to get bad debts off the books of banks by securitizing them and then retaining the senior tranche on the books to serve as a fucking asset, all the while the state guarantees losses.

Why doesn’t the bastard banks simply sell or write down the loans and move on?

Banksters gotta bank.

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GERMAN YIELDS PLUNGE

I told you the main beneficiary of an easy Fed would be bonds. Germany yields have plunged back into negative territory, now off by 6 bps to -0.05%.

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Treasuries are rallying too, as investors position for the grande finale.

Gold is rallying again too, now higher by 0.45%. Gold traders are somewhat more bedraggled and capricious than the obstinate bond trader, so my larger bet will be for treasuries to rally, although at the moment both trades are equal in size.

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All You Need to Know About the #CHARLOTTERIOTS is Here

This is the new normal, the America that was carefully molded by 8 years of divisiness and social engineering. Truth be told, the groundwork for this anarchy was started more than 30 years ago, when our government explicitely broke the families of black Americans by flooding their neighborhoods with drugs. But that’s a whole different topic, one that has its roots in ancient Rome by conquering armies.

But don’t worry, Hillary is gonna have a talk with white people.

BEHOLD: ‘Merica

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Gundlach: ‘The Bond Market is Sniffing Out a Pivot to Fiscal Stimulus’

If true, I will completely reverse my bearish stance on markets and blow out of my very profitable TLT position. But the truth of the matter is, western governments are not in a position to bloat their budgets with bridges to nowhere, unless of course Trump gets in and proposes that we BUILD THE WALL and have Mexico pay for it.

Being that rates are very low, it’s not hard to imagine fiscal stimulus being approved in this country and in the EU. But we haven’t heard anything of it and last I checked the only stimulus that has infiltrated America happened in a vacuum, inside the military-industrial complex–who has depleted out treasury for $5t since the wars in the middle east began more than a decade ago.

What Gundlach might be alluding to is the radical idea of helicopter money–a wild eyed scheme that entails giving away money to the plebs so that they might cavort around shopping malls and purchase extra lattes. It’s all rot.

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Cooperman Hits Back at the SEC: ‘I Won’t Let Them Destroy My Legacy’

L. Cooperman is too old to deal with this shit and he’s not going to let the attorneys, from the very worst law schools in America, at the SEC destroy what has taken him five decades to build. He states that he could’ve easily settled the case for a pittance, but opted not to be extorted because he did nothing wrong. Moreover, if you’re a client of Leon, he’d like to remind you that he doesn’t need your fucking money and will gladly return it if his job becomes burdensome because of the fuckheads at the SEC.

“It took me 50 years of hard work and playing by the rules to get where I got and I’m not going to let these people destroy my legacy,” Cooperman said on a conference call Wednesday with the firm’s clients. “We could have settled this matter with the SEC for an amount which is far less than what I donate to charity every year, but I refuse to do so because of my belief that we acted appropriately and lawfully.”

“If we conclude this is a distraction, such a distraction, and we can’t do the job, we’re going to voluntarily give you back your money,” he said. “We’re not going to wait for you to ask for your money back. The portfolio is liquid. We like what we own. We have no need for any forced selling.”

Here is the full letter.

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Tom Lee is Pleased with Today’s Fed Action, Doubles Down on Boolish Call for Major Rally

One of the more outspoken bulls on Wall Street, amidst a sea of rabble rousing curmudgeons, Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global (wtf is that?) is pleased with today’s events and those of the BOJ yesterday, doubling down on his bet that the S&P will hit 2,325 by year end.

“Investors were on the sidelines and now we’ve got the BoJ and Fed behind us and they’re essentially in line and somewhat friendly to markets,” Lee said. “This is going to result in investors putting money to work over the next few weeks.”

After being a bumbling fool for the past two years, calling for rallies that never materialized and missing the mark by 12% last year, Lee says his target, finally, is within range. His call, although bullish, is not exactly earth shattering. A move up to 2,325 is just 7.5% from current levels, entirely doable under the right conditions.

“The market is up year-to-date, the central banks aren’t changing what they’re going to do and the economy is holding up where it is,” Lee said. “It makes sense markets should be rallying. There are other factors that are supportive: the cost of credit, the consumer is in good shape.”

Lee expects earnings to play a big part in any rally. Analysts are predicting the fastest earnings expansion since the bull market began, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Hitting those forecasts would require profits to rise by 13 percent next year, which Lee sees as doable.

“It’s not crazy,” he said. “Energy is really hammering earnings this year. If their margins just stabilize next year the math is kind of compelling. There aren’t many companies that need to stop losing money to do better next year. They don’t have to grow, they just have to stop losing money.”

In other words, Tom Lee is smoking crack. There has never been a time when earnings have grown by 13% with GDP flagging like it is. I am particularly amused by his low-bar expectations for the energy sector, completely ignoring their debt burdens and need to refinance, saying they don’t need to grow, per se, all they need to do is stop losing money.

How splendid.

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