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Monthly Archives: July 2016

Deutsche Bank Plunges to Historic Lows

Deutsche Bank is down nearly 7% in German trade, death spiraling towards oblivion. With a market cap of $18 billion and balance sheet of $1.8 trillion, no bank in the history of the world has ever been more leveraged.

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I’m making no assumptions about the big German bank, other than stating the obvious. Things have gotten progressively worse since the Greek debt crisis and have been exacerbated to the downside with negative rates. The Germans will end up hanging themselves by their own petard.

US futures are down more than 100. Both gold and silver are higher and treasuries have hit record highs, as investors seek safe haven.

Over in Europe, the Italians are getting it worst, off by nearly 2.5%.

The Japanese yen is getting woefully close to the 100 mark to the dollar, now trading at 100.65, -1.1%.

Without question, a crisis of monumental proportions is building. Board the ark.

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The Global Bond Rally Continues; Japanese 20 Year Hits 0.00%

The heavily indebted country of Japan can borrow as much as they like, out 20 years, and pay zero interest to boot. Once the 30 and 40yr bonds go negative, the entire Japanese yield curve will be negative. At the present, Japan can borrow as much as they like, going out 40 years, for 0.08%.  Should you go buy a television on one of your credit cards, you’ll be paying 39.99%.

Are we clear?

Free money is only free for the select few.

The US 10 yr is down to 1.34%, down 2 bps. Listen to me, investors can’t buy these bonds fast enough. From Germany to Italy to fucking Portugal, money is seeking out bonds and buying them. The QE programmes in Europe and Japan are perverting the market place and advantageous traders are front running them, which is why American bonds trade at a discount to those in Europe.

Japanese 10 yrs are now yielding -0.26%.

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Japanese Stocks Knife Lower, NIKKEI Plunges Into Bear Market Territory for 2016

I bet you think I am kidding with you when I say the fate of the western world lies in the yen-dollar cross? I am not fucking with you. The yen is higher by another 0.86% v the dollar this evening, to 100.92, bringing out all of the Count Draculas into Asian trade. The NIKKEI is getting pummeled at the open, currently off by 2.4%. Should that cross break 100, I assure you, it will be the death knell to this facade of a bull market. The fucking seals from hell will be lifted and centaurs will kick in your doors and demand money.

DAX futures are down 0.66% and the risk off crowd are gleefully goose marching throughout Wall, clad in their pajamas.

Gold is indelibly higher by 0.5%. Silver is being bid up by Chinese farmers, higher by 1.5%.

The pound has broken down to Margaret Thatcher levels, now below 1.30 v the dollar. And, lastly, the dollar is lifting again v the yuan again–something that no one seems to be interested in.

Fresh low are in for the CNH, as they manipulate their way through the world with a cheap currency and barrels of silver coins in tow.

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With today’s delightful move lower in the NIKKEI, it is now off by 20% for 2016–aka in ‘bear market territory.’

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Volume For Silver Futures Contracts Explodes in Shanghai; The Chinese Have a Hankering for the Poor Man’s Gold

This is indescribable. Maybe some local Chinese guru newsletter writer, a Gartman type of fellow, has been bussing in the farmers in from rural in-land China to stock trading centers, in order to leverage their farms 10:1, in order to bid up silver futures? God only knows. On Monday evening, without rhyme or reason, the price of silver exploded to the upside– by as much as 8%.

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Now we know why. Crazy fucking Chinamen.

 

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Gartman: Oil is Heading Lower, Despite ‘Bullish News’ of Death and Carnage in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria

Shares of DGART hit a new record low today, after a CNBC ‘Fast Money’ appearance where he rambled on about contangos, spreads, and all sorts of meaningless horseshit as it pertains to crude. If you recall, several months ago, Lord Gartman of the Appalachia declared the end of crude oil as we knew it, thanks to Lockheed Martin’s fusion technology. He posited crude oil could trade back down to a nickel at some point. Then he reversed course and start sucking on Saudi dick again, loving their crude flavor. Now he hates crude again, citing contangos, shmofangos and crack spread mumbo jumbo coupled with the lack of bullish price action in the face of GREAT BOOLISH NEWS out of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, where terrorists ended up killing a bunch of people.

So fucking bullish.

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Stocks Close Down Triple Digits; Here’s What to Monitor Going Forward

Let’s not get into as panic just because the Dow closed down 100. Last week’s reflex rally off the BREXIT lows has provided us with a little wiggle room. But there are some things that were worrisome today, which should be watched very closely.

European banks were hammered today. Observe the cataclysmic trading action in PUK, DB, BCS, NBG, UBS, CS and LYG.

German sovereign yields are too low, delving into negative territory all the way through 15 years. Moreover, the entire Swiss yield curve is negative, through 50 years. This will have a debilitating effect on asset prices if this trend doesn’t reverse soon.

U.S. treasury yields are the most attractive in the world. Bear in mind, the meat ball’d nation of Italy has a 10 year bond yield that is 10bps LESS THAN ours. What sort of perversion of reality is this? Board the ark.

Gold and silver prices continue upwards, in spite of the fact that the deflationary vortex is ruinous banks.

The pound is at 31 year lows, now at the BREXIT lows. And, most importantly, the Japanese Yen continues to press forward, now  101.72 to the dollar. The Japanese yield curve is also a very negative one. Really, I don’t know what to tell you, other than stop being naive and don’t dismiss these unprecedented things as nothing. These are all gigantic bubbles that will one day explode and destroy the idiot portfolios of millions.

Lastly, keep your eye on crude. Should it get back down to the low $40s again, you will, once again, see a wholesale liquidation of that sector, which will, undoubtedly, spill over into our banks and the general market place.

These are not times to be greedy, but to be careful and wise.

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Needham Analyst Makes the Bear Case for $NFLX, Post BREXIT

It’s mainly a lot of transitory horseshit spouted out by this headline savoring analyst. Nonetheless, she makes valid points regarding some charges the company will need to take, following the horrendous slide in the pound. Netflix has upwards of 5 mill subs in the UK.

Obviously, no one gives a shit what Laura Martin has to say, as Netflix steamrolls higher by 1.5% in an otherwise dreadful day for stocks.

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Oslo Based Consultant Says U.S. Holds More Oil than Saudi Arabia

Well then, we ought to exploit the resources of our enemies first, deplete them, and then tap into our own. As you well know, this has been the standard operating procedure for the past 30 years.

Rystadt, an Oslo based consultant agency, has figured out what everyone at the Department of Energy already knew: we have more oil than anyone.

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Bravo.

Of that oil, more than 50% remains embedded in hard to get shale, with upwards of 60 billion barrels in Texas alone. Mexico really fucked up losing that war, eh?

These numbers are, in fact, of the fantasy varietal–upwards of 70x the current production rate, so take it with a sharp grain of salt.

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