Cramer: China Has Bottomed, Europe is Speeding Up, Oil Has Bottomed

During tonight’s mad money show, J. Cramer continued his bullish pageantry, discussing the virtues of this market–pertaining to a bottoming out in China, european markets getting a head of steam and the undeniable bottoming of crude oil.

I was especially taken by his ‘oil has bottomed’ thesis, pointing to the Schlumberger call, which spelled out an undeniable doom that persists in the market. They declared it to be in a ‘full cash crisis mode’ with production levels bound to decrease, as companies inevitably drop off like flies. My contention with this argument as being bullish for crude is the ramifications that will plague the market when these companies go bust. Plus, desperate people do desperate things. The dry bulk industry was supposed to bottom years ago. But it never did, because of the chicanery taking place by zombie tanker companies fucking with the spot market to attain cash flow.

I’d argue that the impending doom of an industry doesn’t make it investable BEFORE the doom hits. It’s better to wait for the carnage to hit, then pick up the pieces.

Apparently, the core thesis of many television market evangelists is that the 5 week stint of weakness that menaced the market in early 2016 was nothing more than a blip and that everything is good now, so you might as well buy it all up.

I’ll take the other side of this trade all day long.

Trump has destroyed the burgeoning Kasich presidential bid, by laying waste to his egregious table manners. How funny is this?

I can’t wait for him to mock Putin’s hunting etiquette.

The Kasich presidential candidacy has ended. God bless Donald J. Trump for enlightening the American people about the virtues of table etiquette.

This managing director, dubbed Stephen Gallagher, is straight up fodder in the investment banking world. He doesn’t really know what to say, in order to warrant his appearance. Therefore, he says something slightly ominous in order to draw the interest from the cocaine addled producers at CNBC.

Ahead of the Fed, the sages at Societe Generale are maybe expecting slightly more hawkish commentary, more than what the market is forecasting.

If pressed with what to say about the Fed on a CNBC teevee interview, I might suggest they “batten down the hatches because all holy hell is about to bust loose, centaurs and dragons will soon inhabit the earth, laying waste to catamite filled teevee networks, such as the one televising this interview right now.”

Rex Energy is holding a gun to the head of bondholders. The negotiations are going like this: convert the debt into equity or we’ll declare bankruptcy and you’ll be lucky to get 20 cents on the dollar.”

Now if they can renegotiate all of their debt into equity, that would give them a fighting chance to survive, providing crude prices could rebound. This could be a terrific turn around stock to get long, again contingent upon crude cooperating.

One minor thing to note: all of these extra shares can be extremely dilutive. I need to read the terms and see the strike prices. Nevertheless, the newly adorned stock holders are hoping to hit pay dirt with this exchange; otherwise, they’d never agree to the terms.

Via briefing.com

Co announces that it has closed two privately negotiated exchange transactions with certain holders of the company’s securities, including the 8.875% Senior Notes due 2020, the 6.250% Senior Notes due 2022, the Series A 6.00% Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock, and the 1.00%/8.00% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2020, in which those holders agreed to exchange their existing securities for shares of the company’s common stock

Rex Energy executed a privately negotiated exchange pursuant to which the holder exchanged $26.9 mln in aggregate principal amount of the 2020 Notes and 2022 Notes and waive all accrued and unpaid interest for approximately 5.2 mln shares of common stock. With this transaction, the company’s interest savings in 2016 and 2017 will be $1.8 mln and $2.1 mln, respectively. Total interest expense savings from the exchange will be approximately $11.6 mln

The company executed a second privately negotiated exchange with a different holder pursuant to which the holder agreed to exchange $13.8 mln in face value of the Preferred Stock and waive all accrued and unpaid dividends, and to exchange $2.2 mln in aggregate principal amount of the Second Lien Notes and waive all accrued and unpaid interest, for an combined total of approximately 1.9 mln shares of common stock. With this transaction, the company will save approximately $0.8 mln in dividend payments per year

Sex with REX comes to mind (no homo).

Strong markets like to go higher. The current state of the bear class is one of a disheveled, barbarous booze hound. These people have been broken to pieces, like stale pretzel sticks in the back pocket of someone riding a roller coaster.

Markets were barely off today, down by 24 on the Dow and just 3 SPY. Coming off a -150 early morning drubbing, I’d consider this to be a great success.

All eyes on Apple earnings now.

Party on like it’s 1929.

This is from a report penned on April the 22nd that is first being read now by the brain-sinks on Wall Street. Shares of the homewreckers are sharply lower on this ‘news.’

“This problem of rising bad debts continues to be a major issue in Macau, and is among the key drivers for the successive junket mergers and closures that we continue to see today.” Wynn and Melco hold the “riskiest slice of the industry’s junket business” because they have the most revenue among casino operators exposed to the high-stakes gambling segment, he wrote.

Personally, I’m a big fan of WYNN. It was the place we chose to host our first annual investors conference and it will always hold a sentimental place inside of my black heart. As for the morality of the casino business: absolutely horrid, almost as bad as offering legal counsel.

These companies had a great thing going in America, ripping off people in Vegas. But they had to get greedy and try to run their schemes in the totalitarian regime of China. WRONG move. Now they’re paying the price, in spades.

But alot of people already got very, very rich off the Macau scheme. I am sure these mountebanks will find a new place to hoodwink people and restore their glorious theft margins to new highs.

So let me get this straight, the CEO of PRGO, Joe Papa, is leaving PRGO in order to head up VRX. That makes sense, if you’re into lateral moves. But before Papa left PRGO, he blew it to smithereens.

In addition to announcing Mr. Potato Head was leaving the company, they also threw in an earning warning of the first magnitude.

PRGO Lowers FY16 EPS to $8.20-8.60 from $9.50-9.80 vs. $9.52 consensus. The majority of this change in guidance provided on February 18 is the result of a reduction in pricing expectations in our Rx segment due to industry and competitive pressures in the sector. The remainder of the reduction is primarily due to weaker-than-expected performance within the BCH segment for the next three quarters and lower expectations for consolidated new product launches.

The initial response to Mr. Potato Head joining VRX was one filled with elation. As the news sank in and people had a chance to mull it over, the stock began to give back its gains and are now lower for the day.

Meanwhile, shares of PRGO are getting poleaxed, off by 17% for the day.

Shares of PRGO are down more than 50% over the past year.

How glorious. The good tax paying folks at Morgan Stanley and Barclay’s are throwing meated loaf at the vagabonds who’ve been buying up crude these last few months. The nature of this rally has been nonsensical by ‘low-information’ players, regular Joe Schmoes, running about the market with money in their hands. It won’t take long before someone hits them over the head with an oil barrel and then takes their money.

“Non-fundamental rallies can last for several months and near-term catalysts may be lacking, but a macro unwind could cause severe selling given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Barclays analysts said they were “not yet convinced that prices will remain here or go even higher.”

“Still-elevated inventory levels, the return of some disrupted supply, further boosts to Saudi and Iranian supply, and increased non-OECD product exports all have the potential to move prices lower over the next several months, especially if broader macro sentiment shifts,” they wrote.

‘Given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally,” said Morgan Stanley–whilst dusting their cigar ash onto the floor for the maids to pick up. Very nice prose.

Markets have halved today’s losses. Oil is near the lows, off by 2%.

Everyone is making a big deal about some asshole billionaire from China, mocking Apple for being antiquated and old hat. This coming from a country that steals everything and is unable to create anything without using nefarious methods is rich, to say the least.

But there is some truth to what the Chinese and others are saying. As a loyal Apple user for more than a decade, I am utterly demoralized from using the iTunes Store. It’s slow, wonky, fucking stupid, and it doesn’t have any cool features.

For example:  WHY DOESN’T ITUNES HAVE A SOUNDHOUND LIKE MUSIC IDENTIFIER? Why am I forced to use Soundhound to find the name of a song playing, forcing me to remember said song and then I am forced to type it into the iTunes Store? Do you realize how long classical music song titles are?

The fuck.

Also, and additionally, the iPhone is a huge piece of shit. Ever notice that? Just yesterday I was trying to offload a thousand pictures onto my computer. No luck. Fucker froze up on me, rainbow beach ball’d me, forcing me to walk away with a phone filled with too many pics and not enough memory space. For an additional bonus, it even nuked my wifi router.

The iPhone is a depressing piece of hardware. The software is indelibly worse off. The company is without a creative genius and instead stuck with an autocrat gay activist clown.

Analysts on average expect a decline in revenue to $52 billion from $58 billion a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters. Earnings per share likely slumped to $1.99 from $2.33.

For the most part, this is Apple playing victim to its own success. The iPhone 6 and the bigger 6 Plus released in September 2014, make up Apple’s best-selling smartphone line of all time, and 2015 was the strongest year for the devices. In the second quarter, Apple sold over 61 million iPhones, and revenue in the unit jumped 54 percent from the prior year.

That makes 2016 a relatively slow upgrade year and presents particularly challenging numbers to beat. Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said that the iPhone 6 was expected to produce a 15 percent sales bump over the iPhone 5 line, but it ended up being a 30 percent increase.

“The 6 really threw everything off,” said Munster, who recommends buying the shares and has a $172 price target, representing a 63 percent increase over Friday’s close. “When you’re pulling forward that much demand, you’re just naturally going to have a down year.”

Gene Munster is a fanboy. Here are the facts. Apple is going to post its first revenue deceleration in 51 quarters. Moreover, the iPhone 6 was a failure, solely judging by a stock price that has gone nowhere and seems to be waiting around for better news.

The Apple growth story is officially dead.

Don’t worry, the $538 bill expected to leave China this year is nothing in comparison to last year’s carnage, which saw  outflows brim over at $674 billion. Moreover, these are normal ongoings for the world’s second largest economy.  I wonder where all of that capital is going?

If this is such a great economy, why does the capital flee (extra Braveheart)?

“A sharp drop in the renminbi would likely spark a renewed sell-off of global risk assets and trigger a flight of portfolio capital from emerging markets,” the IIF said in a new report.
“Moreover, a sharp depreciation of the renminbi could lead to a round of competitive devaluation in other emerging markets, particularly in those with close trade linkages to China.”
For now, though, outflows are slowing. Roughly $35 billion was pulled out in March, bringing the total since the start of the year to around $175 billion, well below the pace seen in the second half 2016.

It’s because they are going to hell in a hand basket.